Bopping Bay: Lineup Analyis – Part 1

More Retrosheet stuff. This time, I looked at the number of times the lead-off batter got on in each game and tried to determine what effect, if any, that had on the production from the third and fourth batters.
For the purposes of this study, I defined “getting on base” as reaching via a walk or hit–something easily countable in a box score. I didn’t include any times that a hitter may have reached on a fielder’s choice, hit batsman, error, etc.
There’s a lot of data here, so I’m splitting it up by month. April through June (conveniently the first 81 games) are included in part 1. Here are those results:

 

#1 OB

#3-4 OB

#3-4 RBI

RPG

W

L

April

26

80

35

101

7

19

April/G

1.0

3.08

1.35

3.88

5.9 rpg

3.2 rpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

May

46

102

54

150

12

15

May/G

1.70

3.78

2.0

5.56

8.8 rpg

3.0 rpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

June

28

85

22

113

8

20

June/G

1.0

3.04

0.79

4.04

4.5 rpg

3.9 rpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

100

267

111

364

27

54

Total/G

1.23

3.30

1.37

4.49

6.7 rpg

3.4 rpg

#1 OB=BB+H for all batters in first spot
#3-4 OB=BB+H for all batters in third and fourth spots
#3-4 RBI=RBI for all batters in third and fourth spots
RPG=Runs per game the Pirates scored
W=Wins, L=Losses
The rpg stats in the W/L columns correspond, fittingly, to the runs per game in wins and losses.
I kept track of “good games” as well. I defined a good game to be when a lead-off batter reached two or more times and the #3-4 batters combined to reach four or more times.
Some findings:

  • There were five good games in April; eleven in May; three in June; 19 in the first half. More good games meant a better winning percentage.
  • In the good games, the Pirates won ten times and lost nine. They scored 6.95 runs per good game.
  • The Pirates did significantly better in the month of May when lead-off batters reached base 1.70 times per game. When the lead-off batters reached 1.0 times per game in April and June, the Pirates did poorly.
  • The runs batted in from the third and fourth spot rose dramatically in May as well, despite the fact that the #3-4 batters didn’t reach base that much more often.

I’ll look at July, August and September later on and do a more thorough analysis at that point.

Author: PLCArchives

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