Slugging Sanchez: Lineup Analysis – Part 2

A continuation of Part 1:
More Retrosheet stuff. This time, I looked at the number of times the lead-off batter got on in each game and tried to determine what effect, if any, that had on the production from the third and fourth batters.
For the purposes of this study, I defined “getting on base” as reaching via a walk or hit–something easily countable in a box score. I didn’t include any times that a hitter may have reached on a fielder’s choice, hit batsman, error, etc.
There’s a lot of data here, so I’ve split it up by month. You’ve already seen April through June; now, here are the results for July through the end of the season (the last 81 games):

 

#1 OB

#3-4 OB

#3-4 RBI

RPG

W

L

July

39

87

32

119

13

12

July/G

1.56

3.48

1.28

4.76

5.7 rpg

3.8 rpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

August

34

88

34

113

13

15

August/G

1.21

3.14

1.21

4.04

6.2 rpg

2.2 rpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

September

45

82

31

95

14

14

September/G

1.61

2.93

1.11

3.39

4.8 rpg

2.0 rpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

118

257

97

327

40

41

Total/G

1.45

3.18

1.19

4.03

5.5 rpg

2.6 rpg

#1 OB=BB+H for all batters in first spot
#3-4 OB=BB+H for all batters in third and fourth spots
#3-4 RBI=RBI for all batters in third and fourth spots
RPG=Runs per game the Pirates scored
W=Wins, L=Losses
The rpg stats in the W/L columns correspond, fittingly, to the runs per game in wins and losses.
I kept track of “good games” as well. I defined a good game to be when a lead-off batter reached two or more times and the #3-4 batters combined to reach four or more times.
Some second-half findings:

  • There were seven good games in July; six in August; five in September; 18 in the second half. The Pirates played .500 baseball to close the year, and the good games were distributed evenly.
  • In the good games, the Pirates won 14 times and lost four. They scored 6.61 runs per good game. The runs per good game average is slightly lower than it was the first half, but the winning percentage is significantly higher.
  • August was a bad month for the lead-off batters, but they picked the pace back up in September. The #3-4 batters steadily declined throughout the second half, though. The effect of their diminishing production is reflected in the runs per game totals.
  • The Pirates played “all or nothing” more often in the second half. The offense either put up crooked numbers or zeros.

I’ll look at the season as a whole later in the week. Expect fancy charts, graphs, etc.

Author: PLCArchives

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  • http://www.sportzia.com/weblog/baseball/2007/02/12/my-neck-really-fucking-hurts/ Baseball » Blog Archives » my neck really fucking hurts

    […] A continuation of Part 1: More Retrosheet stuff. This time, I looked at the number of times the lead-off batter got on in each game and tried to determine what effect, if any, that had on the production from the third and fourth batters. For the purposes of this study, I defined getting on base as… – More – […]