Pirate Nation is Restless

With no vested interest in the All-Star festivities, Pirate fans are eager to get started with the season’s second half.  (Be honest, you didn’t watch the Futures Game to see Steven Pearce, and between last night’s derby and this evening’s exhibition, the only Pirate involved—Freddy Sanchez—probably doesn’t deserve to be there.)
We put together a nice run in the last homestand, and I’m sure fans and players alike would’ve rather kept going.  The Pirates finally had a little momentum, and now we’re in the middle of a four-day vacation.
To kill the time between now and 7:35 on Friday, I’ve put together a mid-season review of sorts.  It’s hard to put a unique spin on this sort of post, as everyone’s doing it—there’s not much else to write about.
Still, I’ve done my best.  Rather than go with a report card system, I’ve decided to take a look at where we expected the Pirates to be and compare projections with reality.  Hat tip to The Real Neal who hangs out at The Cub Reporter:  A few weeks ago, he brought up the pre-season posts that I’ll be using as the basis for this discussion.
In March, I looked at the NL Central using the ZiPS projection system and attempted to predict which team, if all went as planned, would win the division.  Now, I’m isolating out the Pirates’ numbers to see where the computer thought our players would be, and I’ll compare those estimates to what’s actually happened on the diamond.
Let’s start with the offensive projections for the 162-game schedule:

  • Paulino: 452 AB, .272/.327/.378, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 1 SB
  • LaRoche: 445 AB, .279/.345/.526, 24 HR, 89 RBI, 0 SB
  • Castillo: 446 AB, .256/.304/.388, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 4 SB
  • Sanchez: 500 AB, .306/.348/.432, 6 HR, 61 RBI, 2 SB
  • Wilson: 530 AB, .270/.312/.377, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 5 SB
  • Bay: 530 AB, .279/.378/.521, 30 HR, 88 RBI, 9 SB
  • Duffy: 409 AB, .274/.326/.389, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 22 SB
  • Nady: 407 AB, .280/.341/.467, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 2 SB
  • Bautista: 482 AB, .255/.338/.431
  • Doumit: 290 AB, .252/.322/.438
  • McLouth: 416 AB, .267/.325/.409
  • Hernandez: 217 AB, .249/.301/.350
  • Cota: 220 AB, .223/.267/.355

If you’d like to see the Pirates’ current stats, they’re available here.
Later today, this mini-series of posts will get underway.  First, I’ll write about the overachievers and underachievers based on the offense’s numbers.  Pitching will come tomorrow.  On Thursday, we’ll take a peek at the second half.

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Randy Linville

Randy is currently living and thriving in suburban Dayton, OH with his wife and two kids. He was raised in Cincinnati, OH and attended Anderson High School. He went to Miami University (Ohio) and received a degree in Paper Science Engineering from MU. He is a devout Christian and a pop culture buff. He coaches his son’s baseball and basketball teams and his daughters softball and basketball teams. Randy has been a Pirates fan since the late 1970s and has fond memories of the 1979 World Series team. He began blogging for Most Valuable Network in 5/2004 after stumbling across a help-wanted sign for a Pirates blogger. He wrote for Pittsburgh Lumber Co. until the site merged with Pirates Prospects in 2/2011.

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All Star Brian Bixler

  • http://none The Real Neal

    Are Pirates fans really souring on Bay? And what’s Duke’s problem (other than being injured), he can’t strike anybody out anymore it seems.

  • http://mvn.com/mlb-pirates Cory Humes

    No one around the Pirates is souring on Bay—but it’s clear he’s at his peak value. The closer he gets to leaving via free agency (and it’s all but a done deal that he will, there’s no way we’ll be able to re-sign him), the less we’ll get in a trade. I’d rather do Giles for Bay and Perez than Ramirez for Bobby Hill.
    It’s not that we’re sour, it’s that we’re realistic. Before the season, maybe 2 percent of the fan base would’ve advocated trading Bay. Now, it’s maybe 30 percent? Just a guess, no science there.
    As for Duke … who knows? Your guess is as good as ours, Neal. Everything he throws is put in play. It’s either mechanics or an injury; I suppose we’ll know more after his rest and recovery period.

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