Jason Bay's regression sudden, dramatic

Jason Bay's regression sudden, dramatic

In 2006, Jason Bay was clearly the offensive star of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Of the eight players with 300 or more plate appearances, he ranked first in OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and walks. He was third in batting average and second in doubles. The Pirates spent the offseason focusing almost exclusively on finding a power bat to take some of the offensive pressure off of Bay, finally acquiring Adam LaRoche in January. That filled a major hole in the Pittsburgh lineup, but still left the team with many offensive question marks. The one player that seemed dependable was Jason Bay in leftfield.
However, 2007 has not gone as expected. Bay was hitting .312/.382/.540 on June 3 when things suddenly fell apart. Among eight Pirates that currently have 300 or more plate appearances, Bay is eighth in batting average, seventh in OBP and OPS, and sixth in SLG. He is fifth in doubles, second in walks and tied for first in home runs. Remarkably, Jason Bay has been the least productive regular on the team not named Ronny Paulino.
It is hard to explain Bay’s collapse in 2007. The most baffling part of this story is the abruptness of his decline. Bay went 18 for 39 with five home runs during a 10 game stretch from May 25 to June 3, good for a .462/.500/1.026 clip. Afterwards, he immediately went into a 21 for 142 tailspin and never recovered. What happened that caused such an sudden slump? Bay has a tendency to play through injuries without saying a word, making that a possibility. Another consideration is his age. Today is Bay’s 29th birthday, leaving him in the closing stages of what are generally a player’s peak years. Could the Pirates’ franchise player be at the beginning of a permanent decline?
After entering the season with several holes in their lineup, the Pirates now appear to be a bit more stable offensively. However, while players such as Nate McLouth and Jack Wilson have hit better than expected, Bay’s drop in production severely hindered any chance the offense had to improve. In fact, according to Baseball Prospectus, the difference between the 2006 Jason Bay and the 2007 version cost the Pirates approximately six team wins. That number shows just how much the team missed his bat this season. But it also provides some hope for next year. Imagine how much the team could improve if this was simply a down season and Bay returns to form in 2008. It would be a simple way to correct much of what ails the Bucs.
And if Bay’s struggles continue next year? Well, that is a very scary thought.

  • Cory Humes

    I’m sticking by my guns: This graph either explains or is directly related to his struggles.
    He’s just not walking — looks like he isn’t seeing the ball. It seems too simple, but a more disciplined Bay would be a more productive Bay, I think.
    If he gets back to being the middle of the order hitter that works the count and you surround him with Pearce (who seems pretty aggressive) and LaRoche (who’s proven to be a capable run-producer), you’re right — you make up those six wins and maybe a little more.

  • Matt Bandi

    I agree that he is not seeing the ball well. His reactions are very slow, almost as if he is guessing wrong on every pitch.
    He seems to have the same problems in the field also. He often breaks late and plays cautiously, like he is having trouble picking up the ball quickly.
    Maybe an offseason trip to the optometrist is in order?


Matt has covered the Pirates at Wait ‘Til Next Year, Pittsburgh Lumber Co. and now Pirates Prospects. He served as Pirates team expert for Heater Magazine in 2009 and 2010 and has contributed to Graphical Player 2009, 2010 and 2011. Matt was also the editor of the 2011 and 2012 Pirates Prospects Annuals.

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