Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect: Jonathan Barrios

Tim Williams

Author: Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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  • Maz1960

    Actually, I find one of the major mistakes employed by those using RE tables is the assumption that the situation at hand involves “average” players on a team that is scoring an “average” number of runs.  In the RE explanation you provide, this is what is written:

    There are a few major points to keep in mind:
    Game state matrices (runs or winning) are derived empirically from multiple seasons of data.All players and teams are assumed to be average. According to the matrix, at 0-0, nobody out and nobody on, the worst team in the game will have a 50% chance of beating the best team.This provides a baseline with which players and teams can be evaluated. Outperforming the game state means a team is above average, underperforming means the opposite.The transition between game states can yield average run and out values of any given event (linear weights). This is, strictly speaking, a link of a Markov chain.

    Personally, I don’t know how anyone can conclude that, at this particular point in time, the ’12 version of the Pirates are “average” in the run scoring department.  I wholly reject the idea that a RE chart has any application to this particular team.  Further, as identified above, the chart is not meant to be a predictive tool.  It anticipates that there will be teams that don’t perform in conformance with the chart.  While it may be interesting to have a baseline to measure teams’ performances against one another, it is a misapplication of the table to use it to conclude that Hurdle cost the Pirates runs.