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Jeff Locke, ground balls, and management’s rationale for wanting Kevin Hart in the rotation

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Kevin Hart - Newscom

One prospect who I feel has been mostly underrated by Pirates fans is Jeff Locke, acquired in the trade that sent Nate McLouth to Atlanta in June of 2009. That opinion is mostly due to a glance at his FanGraphs page, which displays the following stats.

ERA FIP
2006 Braves – R 4.22 3.01
2007 Braves – R 2.66 1.74
2008 Braves – A 4.06 3.04
2009 Braves – A+ 5.52 3.64
Pirates – A+ 4.08 3.16

It is clear that Locke has consistently outpitched his ERA over his career. Again, this was just from a quick glance at his stats. However, I recently began looking deeper, and it dawned on me that the majority of his FIP-value came from an absurdly low home run rate. He allowed only five home runs in 127.1 total innings last season, and he has served up just 17 long balls in his entire professional career. In addition, he has allowed an unusually high BABIP every year, which has likely contributed to his higher than expected ERA’s. After noticing these two facts, I headed over to minorleaguesplits.com for some batted ball info. Specifically, I wanted to see his ground ball rate, and I found it to be 51% for his career. (For context, 51% would have been good for 11th place among 75 qualified major league starters in 2009.) That probably explains his high BABIP’s, as loads of ground balls + minor league quality infields + low minors defenders behind him = plenty of hits.

I decided to take a closer look at the ground ball rates of pitchers acquired by Neal Huntington, as this is something that I have come across with other pitchers he has obtained. Here is a list of those players, along with each pitcher’s career minor league GB% and inning total (Hat tip to Wilbur Miller’s estimated 2010 depth chart, which I used extensively to create this list). I excluded Huntington draftees due to limited data, as well as relievers. Some of these pitchers are pretty insignificant moving forward (such as Jimmy Barthmaier and Virgil Vasquez), but I wanted to show the type of starting pitcher that Huntington is targeting. According to StatCorner, the average major league ground ball rate is 43.2%. Take these numbers with a grain of salt, as minor league batted ball figures are not the most reliable.

MiLB Career IP GB%
Aaron Pribanic 133.0 61.2%
Bryan Morris 241.1 53.6%
Jimmy Barthmaier 519.0 52.3%
Jeff Locke 376.1 51.0%
Nathan Adcock 354.0 50.9%
Ross Ohlendorf 518.2 50.4%
Charlie Morton 460.0 49.2%
Kevin Hart 587.0 48.4%
Tim Alderson 295.1 46.0%
Hunter Strickland 223.1 46.0%
Jeff Karstens 455.0 43.2%
Brett Lorin 186.1 43.2%
MLB AVERAGE
43.2%
Donnie Veal 479.0 42.9%
Jose Ascanio 290.2 41.7%
Virgil Vasquez 747.2 39.3%
Daniel McCutchen 504.2 39.1%

According to Rich Lederer, ground ball rate is the third most important statistic for a pitcher, trailing only strikeouts and walks. It seems that Huntington follows that philosophy, as he clearly appears to be targeting pitchers with the ability to put the ball on the ground. If you are wondering why management seems overly interested in putting Kevin Hart in the starting rotation over Daniel McCutchen, the answer probably resides in the numbers above. The four other pitchers who have locked up rotation spots (Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Charlie Morton and Ross Ohlendorf) all have strong ground ball tendencies as well.

It will always be very difficult for the Pirates to acquire a prototypical “ace” starter, the type of pitcher who can dominate a game from start to finish. Moving forward, they will have to gain value by acquiring a large quantity of number three-type starters, and they must steal some hidden significance that teams fail to appreciate. All teams are looking for pitchers who can miss bats consistently. A high ground ball rate is not as sexy as a huge strikeout total, but it provides considerable value to a team.

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Matt Bandi

Matt has covered the Pirates at Wait ‘Til Next Year, Pittsburgh Lumber Co. and now Pirates Prospects. He served as Pirates team expert for Heater Magazine in 2009 and 2010 and has contributed to Graphical Player 2009, 2010 and 2011. Matt was also the editor of the 2011 and 2012 Pirates Prospects Annuals.

Prospect Watching: Gorkys Hernandez

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Huntington: Raynor in front of Moss

  • free candy

    assuming you have a major-league quality infield behind you…not that the buccos’ infield is terrible, but clement/jones and cedeno/crosby are certainly downgrades from what the team had for over half the year last year. still good stuff though and good strategy by huntington & co.

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