The 2011 Indianapolis Rotation

Will Locke return to Altoona to start the 2011 season?

A few weeks ago I looked at the projected 2011 Indianapolis Indians infield, noting that there could be a roster crunch, one which could leave prospects like Chase D’Arnaud and/or Jordy Mercer back in AA to start the 2011 season.  The same situation is starting to form with the 2011 rotation in Indianapolis.  Four of the top prospects in the farm system pitched in the Altoona rotation in 2010, and all four are expected to make the jump to AAA in 2011.  The Pirates could also potentially be sending Brad Lincoln down to start the year in Indianapolis, assuming he doesn’t win the 5th starter role in the majors.  To top it all off, they’ve signed a few minor league free agents, such as yesterday’s addition of Brian Burres.  All of the options could leave one or two of the 2010 Altoona pitchers back in AA to start the year.

The options for the 2011 rotation are as follows:

Aaron Thompson - Thompson was added via waivers, after starting in Washington’s AA rotation in 2010.  He hasn’t been effective as a starter, so it’s possible the Pirates could move him to the bullpen.

Brad Lincoln - Lincoln will be competing with Scott Olsen, Charlie Morton, and Jeff Karstens for the fifth starter role.  Morton is out of options, and Karstens and Olsen each have guaranteed deals.  There’s a chance that Lincoln could beat all of them, although I think it’s more likely he starts back in AAA.

Bryan Morris - Morris could be a candidate to move back to Altoona to start the 2011 season.  He started the 2010 season in Bradenton, and after dominating for eight starts, went to Altoona, where he put up strong numbers in 89 innings.  The Pirates might want to give him some additional time in AA before pushing him to AAA and beyond.

Jeff Locke - Just like Morris, Locke started out in Bradenton in 2010.  He spent more time in high-A before making the jump to AA.  Locke had strong numbers in AA, with a 56:12 K/BB ratio in 57.2 innings, although like Morris, the Pirates could opt to give him more time in AA before moving him up.

Michael Crotta - Crotta started between Altoona and Indianapolis in 2010, and was added to the 40-man roster this off-season.  He profiles best as a relief option, and it’s possible he could move to that role in 2011.

Tony Watson - Watson was strong between the rotation and bullpen in Altoona, and was added to the 40-man roster this off-season as a result.  He should move to AAA, although he profiles best as a reliever, and could move full time to that role in Indianapolis.

Brian Burres - Burres isn’t likely to crack the opening day roster out of Spring Training, but he could serve as rotation depth out of AAA in case of emergencies.

Cesar Valdez - The Pirates acquired Valdez for Zach Duke this off-season.  Valdez has pitched out of the AAA rotation the last two years, and has even made a few appearances in the majors.  He could be used as rotation or bullpen depth out of AAA, although considering the options available, it’s likely that he will pitch out of the bullpen.

Fernando Nieve - Nieve was signed as a minor league free agent early in the off-season.  In 2010 he pitched out of the New York bullpen, with a 6.00 ERA and a 38:22 K/BB ratio in 42 innings.  He also made eight starts for their AAA team.  The Pirates said he would get a shot at starting, although it seems more likely that he will end up as depth out of AAA, working in a Jeremy Powell type role out of the bullpen.

Justin Wilson - Wilson spent the entire 2010 season in AA, putting up a 3.09 ERA in 142.2 innings.  He struggled with control, and was inconsistent from start to start, especially toward the end of the year.  He could be a candidate to return to AA due to his control problems.

Rudy Owens - Owens also spent the entire 2010 season in AA, with a 2.46 ERA in 150 innings, along with a 7.9 K/9 and a 1.4 BB/9.  Owens is the best bet of the four AA pitchers to make the jump to AAA at the start of the 2010 season.

Sean Gallagher – The Pirates outrighted Gallagher to AAA earlier in the off-season, and expressed a lot of interest in keeping him around as rotation depth.  There’s a chance they could use him out of the AAA rotation, as he probably won’t make the majors on Opening Day.

The ideal rotation would be Brad Lincoln, Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, Jeff Locke, and Justin Wilson.  However, Sean Gallagher, Brian Burres, and Fernando Nieve could also be candidates for the rotation, especially if the Pirates choose to keep Wilson (control) or Locke/Morris (experience) back in AA to start the 2011 season.

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Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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  • Anonymous

    Like your play on the SP’s at AAA. I agree that Lincoln, Owens, Morris, Wilson, and Locke would be the best. Owens and Wilson finished #1 and # 4 in AA in ERA. Owens should have gotten the award for Best Pitcher that went to Drabek. It was a breakout year for Wilson, who has never been a control pitcher, but he wins. On the infield, d’Arnaud has too much offense to keep him at AA. He needs to start at SS at AAA and replace Cedeno by mid-year if he can keep up the offensive production and improve his defense.

    • Anonymous

      I understand excitement with some of this young talent moving through the system but i think we are starting to rush guys when theres no need too. The only starters that could possibly see MLB time this year are Lincoln and Owens. So I dont think rushing the entire group is truly paramount. What happens with spot starters/injury replacements like Crotta,Burres, etc. Do they just sit in bullpen not starting or go to AA?
      As far as D’Arnaud I know he has lots of promise but he started very slow last year and I would like to see more consistency before thinking he can be in MLB at any time 2011.

      • Anonymous

        It was what d’Arnaud did after the slow start that made me think he can move ahead quickly. After barely at the Mendoza for April and May, he turned it around batting .267 from June on with 32 extra base hits, 31 RBI’s and 23 SB’s. And, over the whole season he hits better when it is on the line – .237 with the bases empty, .266 with runners on base, and .298 with runners in scoring position. We are looking for a SS and this kid is like instant offense – now for the glovework . . .

  • Anonymous

    @Tim Have a question with Olsen. I dont understand how his 500k being guaranteed makes him a lock for the 25 man. with him having options and most of his deal incentive laden I would of thought that some minor league time would be ideal. At least until injury or trade. Maybe I’m just not understanding the contract.

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      I’ve been going back and forth on this. Olsen does have options, and a low guaranteed salary. However, since he has more than five years of service time, he has the right to refuse any option to the minors. That’s why I have him as a lock, since I don’t think he’d accept an option, and I don’t think the Pirates will risk losing him when they can stash him in the bullpen as a left handed option.

      • Anonymous

        Ok that makes a lot of sense then thanks. It should be interesting thats for sure

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