What Kind of Trade Value Does Hanrahan Have?

What kind of value does Hanrahan have?

Over the weekend, we learned that the Texas Rangers have inquired on Joel Hanrahan, making this the second instance that the Rangers have been connected to Hanrahan.  The Pittsburgh closer currently has a 1.66 ERA and is 13-for-13 with save opportunities, along with a 16:5 K/BB ratio in 21.2 innings.

Normally when a trade rumor is brought up, especially a “Team A is interested in Player B” rumor, it leads to the inevitable “Who are the top prospects on Team A, and which one(s) can we get for Player B” talk.  Usually, these talks end up over-valuing the home team player, and expecting too much.  Go to any forum right now, and you’re going to see the names “Martin Perez”, “Jurickson Profar” and more being mentioned in a potential trade return, and often they are mentioned in the same return.  Or, maybe you’ll see a “maybe we can get Michael Young” brought up.  In either case, Hanrahan is being over-valued.

The reason people are over-valuing Hanrahan in this case is beyond the normal home-team bias.  Hanrahan is having a great season, and the Pirates are two games under .500 in late May.  The bullpen looks great, although that’s mostly because it’s anchored by Hanrahan.  Evan Meek and Chris Resop have both struggled at times this year.  Jose Veras is having a great year, but no one would be comfortable just giving him the closer’s role.

The idea of trading Hanrahan for the right return makes a lot of sense, even if it does put the current bullpen in question.  However, the “how will this affect the bullpen” aspect can only go so far in terms of adding value to a trade.  That’s not going to be enough to get you an extra top 100 prospect thrown in to the deal.

So what is Hanrahan worth, just based on his performance, and not considering the Pirates’ situation? Using projected values (calculated as [(WAR*$5 M) - Salary]) and Victor Wang’s research on prospect values, we can figure out some estimates.  Note that I’m using $5 M because that was the reported value on the open market this past off-season for one win above-replacement level.

(If you want to skip the details and get right to the value, don’t read the next four paragraphs.)

First of all, Hanrahan’s value is extremely subjective.  Last year he put up a 1.4 WAR, and I think an optimistic projection for this year would be 2.0.  Closers tend to be over-valued by fans, although the actual values are much lower than expected.  Jonathan Papelbon, in his best years, was around a 3.0.  In Mariano Rivera’s years as a closer, he was only above 2.6 on three occasions, and never above 3.3.  Hanrahan is good, but I wouldn’t say he’s one of the best in the game, which is why I’d put him at 2.0.

So for starters, we will list Hanrahan’s WAR at 2.0 for the 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons (the years he is under control for).  The next step in figuring out his value would be to figure out his salary.  We know his salary this year ($1.4 M).  What we don’t know is how much he would make going forward.  If we use his 2.0 WAR as a guideline, we can figure out some estimates.  In year two of arbitration, the general rule of thumb is that a player’s salary is 60% of his value.  In year three it is 80%.  Using a 2.0 WAR, we can estimate that Hanrahan’s salaries would be $5.6 M and $7.5 M in his final two arbitration years.

Those would be huge jumps from his current level, although if he does have success in the closer role, the arbitration process could be very friendly to him.  The higher salaries actually work well for the purposes of figuring out his value, as they provide a conservative estimate.  Hanrahan’s value, with a 2.0 WAR, would be around $10 M a year.  If you deduct his salary, you get the net value.  Obviously, the higher the salary is, the lower his end value would be.

The final step is estimating whether Hanrahan would be a Type A or Type B free agent.  We also have to consider whether there would actually be a compensation system by the time Hanrahan is eligible for free agency, which would be after the 2013 season, affecting the 2014 draft.  With a 2.0 WAR, I think we could assume Type A status.  However, because there is uncertainty surrounding the compensation system, I’d bump that down to Type B, which is valued at $2.5 M.

So what is Hanrahan worth?  Let’s add it up:

YEAR SALARY WAR VALUE
2011 $1.4 2.0 $6.2
2012 $5.6 2.0 $4.6
2013 $7.5 2.0 $2.7
TOTAL $14.6 6.0 $15.9

Two notes: (1) I adjusted the 2011 figures to represent 70% of the season, and (2) the $15.9 figure includes the $2.5 M Type B status.

With Hanrahan’s value estimated at $15.9 M, we can start to get an idea as to what he would fetch in a trade return.  Looking at Victor Wang’s prospect values, the $15.9 M would fetch a top 50 pitching prospect, or a 51-100 hitting prospect and maybe another player.  Baseball America rated Martin Perez, a left handed starter, as the 24th best prospect in baseball prior to the season.  They rated Jurickson Profar, a shortstop in A-ball, as the 74th best prospect in the league, prior to the season.

Even if you go with lower salaries for Hanrahan in 2012 and 2013 (such as $3.5 M and $5.5 M), he’s not going to have enough value to fetch both prospects.  However, because he’s a strong closing option, and because he has a few years of control remaining, he could fetch one of the two prospects.

Either player would be a tremendous return for Hanrahan.  Perez is a potential top of the rotation pitcher who currently has a 2.31 ERA in 46.2 innings at the AA level, along with a 48:23 K/BB ratio.  Profar is only 18 years old, and is in full season A-ball, currently with a .269/.389/.513 line in 119 at-bats.  He has the ability to stick at shortstop, and be productive there for the long term, so while he’s far from the majors, he would provide some value to the Pirates in the long run.

Of course you have to consider the old “it takes two to make a deal” saying.  First of all, do the Rangers share the same value of Hanrahan as I listed above?  Second, would the Rangers even consider parting with Perez, a 20 year old left hander in AA who can touch 95 MPH with his fastball, or Profar, an 18 year old shortstop in full season ball?  Perez and Profar were the top two prospects in the Texas system.  Either one would be a lot to give up for a set up man, which is the role Hanrahan would play in Texas.  The value might be fair, but if Texas doesn’t want to trade those players, the value is irrelevant.

There’s also the Michael Young talk.  Young is easier to match up to Hanrahan, since he has a major league salary, and has a track record for his WAR.  He’s been around 3.0 the last few years, so we’ll go with that figure.  However, Young has 10-and-5 rights, meaning he could veto a trade anywhere.  It’s unlikely that he would accept a deal to Pittsburgh.  Even if he would, the Rangers would have to pick up salary, since his 3.0 WAR and $16.0 M a year salary project to even value.  In short, that means that if the Pirates picked up all of his salary, they could also add Profar to the deal to get a match value-wise.

We now know what Hanrahan is worth.  Any talk about how a deal needs to include both Perez and Profar is an extreme over-valuation.  One of those two players would be reasonable, although it’s unlikely that you’re going to get anyone else in the deal.  We also have to consider the fact that maybe Texas wouldn’t want to deal either player, making any talk of a deal irrelevant.  That would also mean that any deal would require the Pirates to take on three lesser players, rather than one stud prospect.  An example of a “lesser deal” would be something like left handed pitcher Robbie Erlin (rated 4th in the system), third baseman Mike Olt (rated 7th in the system), and possibly even shortstop Luis Sardinas (rated 8th in the system).  That wouldn’t be a bad return, talent-wise, although Erlin and Olt are currently in high-A, and Sardinas will be in short season ball this year at the age of 18.

Looking at it from the other side, the Pirates don’t have to do a deal.  It wouldn’t hurt them at all to keep Hanrahan.  I’ve mentioned that the Rangers might not want to trade Perez or Profar.  The Pirates have the same rights with Hanrahan, which means that either one side has to budge, or no deal will be completed.  Considering the Rangers are reported to have a low interest, I’d lean towards the latter happening.

Tim Williams

Author: Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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  • Anonymous

    I don’t think Texas is a good trade partner.  Forget Young. Profar is just too far down the chain to make this gamble. While Perez throws hard he has had a high era at every level.  The Pirates are not that far away from competing. Replace Overbay for Berkman and the Pirates are near the top of the standings. The biggest need is a run producing bat. Texas doesn’t have that kind of player in their minor system. The Bucs biggest hope for that kind of player is to trade some pitching for that player. If they could find a 25 HR-90 rbi producer I would trade Maholm, Doumit, and Stetson Allie for him. Providing they have control over that player for at least 3 years.

  • Todd Smith

    Profar + Chris Davis and I’d pull the trigger.

    • Anonymous

      Id take perez and davis. Everyone says how SS is such a big need Cedeno has been great for almost 3 weeks now. Looking around the league there are maybe a handful of big time SS the rest are very comparable to Ronny. Ill take the high end pitching.

      • Todd Smith

        I don’t think you can sit back and say that you don’t need a quality SS in the organization just because Cedeno is hitting around .250 this year.  High end shortstop prospects are much harder to find than pitching.

        • Anonymous

          Didn’t say you don’t need it just that they are few and far between and no one is giving a truly highend guy away. If he’s that good you find a spot whether 2b or 3b. Most guys are .250 with good glove or hit a ton and can’t field. Whatever guy they get would have to be better than D’Arnaud and Brock Holt. Now those guys aren’t HUGE. Upside guys but id say they have a real shot to be decent major leaguers. I disagree about pitchers being easier to get. Run of the mill guys yes top of the rotation starters no. I don’t think many teams outside of Pittsburgh think guys like Owens Lincoln Morris or Locke are top of the rotation guys. Perez would be the 2nd best prospect in the system

        • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_BJELQ3V4WBWHC6EJJRFMIF6AOQ KevinJ

          The Pirates traded a 25 HR, good defensive player for a SS—Argenis Diaz, since released. They traded for Pedro Ciriacao. They traded a VERY good defensive SS, and a clutch hitter for Cedeno. They picked a SS in Rule 5.

          The problem isn’t that the Pirates aren’t trying to acquire a good SS. They just have no idea what one looks like or have the world’s worst scouts.

          • Todd Smith

            You think Ian Snell, Jack Wilson, Adam LaRoche, DJ Carrasco, Ryan Church or Bobby Crosby should return a blue chip prospect at ANY position – much less a blue chip shortstop?

            That’s funny.

          • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

            I think the problem is that good shortstops aren’t made available in the following situations:

            1. Trades for pending free agents (LaRoche)
            2. Trades for over-paid/injury prone players who are past their prime (Wilson)
            3. Throw-ins for a Carrasco/Church/Crosby for Snyder trade, which was basically a big swap of salaries
            4. In the Rule 5 draft.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_6KEYHS3XWH74U3LRIHGWL7XPBA Nate

    Excellent analysis, very thorough and informative.

  • Anonymous

    Great job Tim. Gotta do Maholm next. would love to see the Yanks or Sox get SP desperate and give up a Banuelos or Anthony Ranaudo for him. Sox are very left handed Yanks could use another good lefty starter. Buster Olney said he and Harang might be the top 2 SP trade targets this season.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Steve-Zielinski/100000181161454 Steve Zielinski

    Great analysis! The Pirates ought to ask for Profar and ??? before settling for Profar. The team lost out on Sano but it can make up for that loss by trading for Profar.

    One caveat about your analysis: Team time preference. If the Rangers strongly prefer present value to a risk-laden future value, they will trade a quality prospect for Hanrahan or a comparable relief pitcher. If they want to maximize the value produced by a player over the long-term, then they may not want to make a trade unless they end up stealing a player.

    Of course, the Rangers are planning to make another World Series run. Given that goal, it is safe to assume they have a strong short-term preference for the value they get from their players.

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      The problem with this thinking is that it ignores the other teams, and other trade pieces on the market.  The Rangers could get a lot for Profar or Perez alone.  They wouldn’t give up both for Hanrahan, who they plan on using as a set-up man this year.  They could split them up and get two Hanrahans.  Or, they could keep both, and wait for a team that gives up a top reliever for a lesser return.

      If their only option was trading with the Pirates, then it would be more likely that they’d make the deal.  Since they have 28 other teams to trade with, it makes it less likely that the Pirates land one of the top guys, and impossible to land both.

      • Anonymous

        Completely agree I can see the Rangers moving Andrus(who will be arb eligible after this season I believe) after 2012 or 2013 to make room for Profar who seems to profile as a MUCH better hitter

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Steve-Zielinski/100000181161454 Steve Zielinski

        I wasn’t ignoring the other teams as much as I tried to hone in on the Profar for Hanrahan swap as a trade of two players with roughly equivalent present-day values. The trade makes sense according to that assessment.

        As to your point about the other teams. Presumably, the Mets will unload KRod. That would be a tough opponent for the Pirates if try to trade Hanrahan to the Rangers. This is especially clear if the Rangers use KRod as a setup man for Feliz, a use that would avoid triggering KRod’s vesting mechanism.

        Of course, the Rangers also need to worry about the Yankees or Red Sox acquiring KRod! The Rangers also need to worry about the Pirates trading Hanrahan to the Yankees for Jesus Montero!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_BJELQ3V4WBWHC6EJJRFMIF6AOQ KevinJ

    Jackson Profar is blocked ( not that he is anywhere near mlb ready) by the 22 yo Elvis Andrus.

    IF the Rangers were in a pennant race and saw the need for a closer, they should.

    People get upset that the Pirates traded Moises Alou. But if they hadn’t, they wouldn’t have gotten Bert Blyleven, and probably not won the 1979 series. I would have liked to see him as a Pirate, but I understood the trade.

    • Anonymous

      Trade Alou for Blyleven?  You are mixed up there, perhaps just a typo.  Moises Alou was a Pirate in the early 1990′s I believe, and he wasn’t traded for Blyleven.   I wonder, did the Pirates trade him because he was peeing on his hands or did he start that practice later on?!

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Steve-Zielinski/100000181161454 Steve Zielinski

        Well, they did like Zane Smith who did help the team win the penant.

  • Anonymous

    Using Hanrahan as a setup man would keep his arb. figures down so he’d be even more valuable for Texas.
    The truth is Hammer is too valuable unless a team wants to overpay. Perez/Profar, another top 10 guy and a lotto ticket guy is fair if they want the immediate and sure thing that is Joel. 3 for 1 and much like the McLouth deal.

    • Anonymous

      You make this article’s point!

      Perez is a top-25 guy…in all of MiLB.  We’re not talking “top 10″ prospects in an organization, we’re talking 2 guys in the top 100 of all MiLB.

      I do not believe Perez would be on the table.  Profar may be obtainable.  I don’t know what else we would be able to get – Robert Erlin (LHP in A+ ball)? Neil Ramirez (RHP in AAA)?  Maybe make a grab at a Jacob Skole and play on some long-term upside?  How about Miguel De Los Santos (LHP in AA – 14.3k/9 in his MiLB career)?

      But if Profar is not part of the deal….we do nothing.

    • Anonymous

      You make this article’s point!

      Perez is a top-25 guy…in all of MiLB.  We’re not talking “top 10″ prospects in an organization, we’re talking 2 guys in the top 100 of all MiLB.

      I do not believe Perez would be on the table.  Profar may be obtainable.  I don’t know what else we would be able to get – Robert Erlin (LHP in A+ ball)? Neil Ramirez (RHP in AAA)?  Maybe make a grab at a Jacob Skole and play on some long-term upside?  How about Miguel De Los Santos (LHP in AA – 14.3k/9 in his MiLB career)?

      But if Profar is not part of the deal….we do nothing.

  • Anonymous

    So right now people are hoping for either
    1. a current top 25 guy and will stay that way till he gets a call up? (Perez)
    2. a guy that looks like he will be on the mid-season top 25? (Profar)
    3. A guy that is considered to be a potential mid-season top 50-100 guy? (Erlin/Ramierz/Olt)

    Has anyone went back and looked at historical returns for premier setup men? Most, if not all, deals for relievers tend to deal with guys in the bottom part of a teams top 10 or top 20. I understand asking for the moon, but…