In my projection of the 40-man roster I've included estimates for each of the arbitration eligible players, in order to try and get the estimated 2012 payroll. My method for estimating salaries is simple. I'll look at the numbers that the players put up, look at comparable players, and go with the salaries for those players. For example, Joel Hanrahan compares very closely to Heath Bell. So in my projection I looked at Bell's payment in year two of arbitration eligibility ($4 M) and applied the same amount to Hanrahan, who is also in year two of arbitration eligibility.
MLB Trade Rumors and Matt Swartz have come up with a method to project arbitration salaries that is far more advanced than my simple approach. Their method can be explained here, here, and here. They have released all of the estimates for the 2012 season, which can be found here. Let's take a look at the difference between my original estimates, and what their system projects.
Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.