Trade Values: Yonder Alonso

This past week we heard from Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports that the Cincinnati Reds were shopping first baseman Yonder Alonso for pitching, looking for a starter and a closer.  That last part definitely piqued the interest of Pittsburgh Pirates fans, especially those who would like to see the team capitalize on the high price being paid for closers by trading Joel Hanrahan. Making an assumption solely on the rumor suggests that a Hanrahan for Alonso swap would be beneficial to both teams.  Considering some of the other things we’ve heard about Alonso, I’m not so sure that swap is realistic.

First of all, we’ve heard rumors that the Oakland Athletics asked for Alonso in exchange for Andrew Bailey, and that the Reds turned down the deal.  Bailey is a closer, has three years of control to Hanrahan’s two, and has good results when healthy, although health has been an issue in the past year.  Even if you say that Bailey and Hanrahan have the same value – and I think Bailey is higher due to the fact that he’s healthy now and has an extra year of control – the Reds thought Alonso was too much for Bailey, making it unlikely that they’d go for Hanrahan.

There’s also the issue of trading within the division.  The Reds are dealing six years of Alonso.  How likely would it be that they’d deal him within the division, knowing that they’d not only have to face him more often, but that they’d be helping one of their rivals fill a long term need?

These are two very important questions to consider.  Personally I couldn’t see the Reds dealing Alonso in the division, and even if they were willing to make that move, they’ve already made it clear that they prefer a starter to a closer.  I’d deal Hanrahan for Alonso in a heart beat if the Reds were willing to move him for a reliever and were willing to deal within the division.

Ignoring those two questions, let’s take a look at what Alonso is worth.  He doesn’t have enough of a sample size in the majors to do a WAR-based projection, so we’re going to have to treat him like a prospect.  Prior to the 2011 season, Alonso wasn’t exactly a can’t miss prospect.  He rated 73rd on Baseball America’s top 100.  He didn’t rank on the Baseball Prospectus top 101.  He came in 65th on Keith Law’s list.  He wasn’t on the mid-season top 50 for Baseball America or Law.

Alonso hit for a .330/.398/.545 line in 88 at-bats in the majors this year.  That might drive his value up to a top 50 prospect, but then again, it probably won’t due to the small sample size.  Alonso’s career numbers in the minors feature a .293/.370/.466 line.  He has a .296/.364/.478 line in his career at AAA.  I’d find it unlikely that he’d go from a low-to-mid .800 OPS hitter in the minors to a .943 OPS hitter at the highest level.  So I think you could put Alonso in the 51-75 group, where he was last year.  That comes with a prospect value of $14.2 M.

That doesn’t seem like what the Reds have Alonso valued at, and their value is the most important factor here, since they probably aren’t going to sell him at a significantly lower price than what they have him at.  I’d put Alonso’s value closer to a top 26-50 prospect, which is $23.4 M, if I had to guess what the Reds had him at.

I looked at Hanrahan’s trade value two weeks ago and had him at $20.8 M.  You could make an argument that Hanrahan for Alonso is a fair swap, although that brings us back to the rumor that the Reds turned down a Bailey for Alonso deal (and I have Bailey at $25.4 M).

MLBTR speculated that the Reds would consider starting pitchers Gio Gonzalez or Trevor Cahill as worthy returns for Alonso.  The Reds have starting pitching as the top priority, although I don’t think Alonso is worth a Gonzalez or Cahill type pitcher, unless the Reds were adding prospects to the deal. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com doesn’t see the Reds moving Alonso for anything less than a top end starter.

The Pirates don’t have much starting pitching to trade, and definitely don’t have a guy in the majors like Gio Gonzalez or a top end starter.  Their best assets would probably be Charlie Morton or James McDonald.  Morton had a 2.4 WAR in 2011, and has three years of arbitration remaining.  At a 2.4 WAR I’d put his trade value at $24.3 M, which is in line with a top 26-50 prospect.  I’d put McDonald at $23.6 M based on his 1.8 WAR from 2011 over the next four years.

Morton and McDonald don’t have the same value as Gonzalez, and they’re not top end starters, but Alonso isn’t worth a guy like Gonzalez or a top end starter.  I like each pitcher, but I’d probably deal either one for Alonso.  I’d take Alonso’s bat every day over Morton or McDonald once every five days, especially when you consider the potential for pitchers to get injured.  Again, I don’t see the Reds trading six years of Alonso inside the NL Central, but this is a “what if” scenario, focused on looking at Alonso’s value.

This is probably a case where the Reds are over-valuing their player.  I like Alonso, but his numbers suggest he’s not an impact player. He was never regarded as an impact player based on all of the pre-season and mid-season rankings. The big allure to Alonso is his power potential, with the chance of him hitting around 25 homers a year with a strong average. I see him as an Adam LaRoche type player, and this is coming from someone who liked Adam LaRoche.  I think Alonso will be a good hitter, but probably someone you want batting sixth in a strong lineup, rather than batting fourth in a weak lineup.  If Alonso came here, I think a lot of people would be disappointed, even with his best performance, just because I don’t think he’s a guy who could carry the offense.

I would deal for Alonso, because the Pirates don’t have a player internally who can do what he can do at first base, at least for the next two years.  But I’m not sure I’d make him my top priority.  I think Carlos Pena or Derrek Lee could make a bigger impact to the lineup, allowing the Pirates to hold on to a guy like Hanrahan for a different deal.  This once again assumes that the Reds would even consider a deal to the Pirates, which might make this whole topic a moot point.

Tim Williams

Author: Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jack-Mcelligott/1666219291 Jack Mcelligott

    Good analysis as usual. I dont see the Pirates and Reds doing anything here. I would give Hague a shot before taking this guy and giving up Hanrahan.  If Alonso is not going to be an impact player then the Hague options seems much more plausible.

  • ed_cummings

    Alonso is younger and profiles to hit for better average and better power than Hague.  He should hit around 290 with 20+ HRs in his prime which should start in 2012 and last through 2018.  That would make him at least the 2nd best offensive player on the team.
    Good young players that hit left handed (important at PNC) and play above average defense at a position of need aren’t available every day.  Trades like this are the best chance to improve the major league roster.  The Pirates should doing whatever it takes: Hanrahan, cash, pitching prospects (ZVR or Allie), taking back Bronson Arroyo in order to make this deal happen.  The Pirates are building for the future and when the primary alternative is a player (Lee) whose three year plan includes the word “retirement” this should be a no brainer.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Dan-Loften/547895395 Dan Loften

      Not to put down your analasis of Alonso’s prime, but, generally speaking most prospects don’t reach their prime in the majors until a few years after.  While he might enjoy early success like Braun, Lonoria, and others (likely not to their extent as far as numbers go) but I think his prime would start somewhere around 2014 and go through 2020, maybe further since he would be at first base and suffer less wear and tear.

      I completely agree that the Pirates should do something to make this trade.  I think a package like Hanrahan, McDonald, and another non top prospect like Gorkys Hernandez or Locke could do it maybe.  I would love to see this guy play for us.  He probably wouldn’t hit the 30 home run mark, however, 20+ would be a blessing for anyone at any position on the Pirates roster right now.

      This would sure up a long term need at 1B.  While I don’t think it would happen I would love for it to work out somehow.

  • Anonymous

    Alonso would be nice to get, but I don’t think he is at the top of the Pirates priority list, I would not be afraid to bet they still hope to get Lee and if they don’t get Lee, I would put my money on them going for Pena, if those two don’t work out, who knows who is No. 3 on their check down list!

    It would be hard to get Hanrahan away from me without another closer in the works, someone like Heath Bell. I must admit, Alonso for Hanrahan would be tempting.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Matt-Beam/100001016052787 Matt Beam

      I realize some folks will think I’m crazy given his injury plagued season last year, but I really think a healthy Evan Meek can be a very good closer in this league. Plus, closer is probably the most overrated position in baseball. You can’t miss on this trade – but I would trade Joel in a heartbeat for a very good, young prospect such as Alonso. Right now, OF and 2B are the only places I feel good about with this team.

    • ed_cummings

      The kicker to this piece is that Alonso makes $1 Million this year, Lee would make around $10M.  Pirates could add another reliever and/or make a run at a starter like Edwin Jackson with that money.  Would you rather have Alonso, Meek & Jackson or Lee and Hanrahan? 

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Dan-Loften/547895395 Dan Loften

        I don’t believe Meek could cut it as a closer in my opinion.  I love healthy Meek in the 8th.  I really do.  I just cannot see him closing out games with enough consistency.  Maybe for a spot year or so but not for more than a season. 

        I don’t see us getting Edwin Jackson as much as I wish we would.  He probably won’t sign with a big team like the Yankees, but, I see him getting a lot of money.  Too much for what he is.  Even though he would be our #1 sadly.

  • http://www.facebook.com/rutkap Alex Rutkowski

    How about a three way deal with the Padres for Chase Headley? Maybe using Toronto or Cincinnati as the third team in the deal? Hanrahan to Toronto for Prospects, maybe a drabek or D’arnaud to the Padres, and Headley to the pirates. Fit Alvarez at First with Jones as his insurance policy. 

  • Anonymous

    I would not put a nickle on Meek as a closer or an 8th inning set-up guy, he lost the fastball that made him a good pitcher, worst part is he does not have the disposition that a closer needs, he usually chokes when he gets someone on.
    Shorten the game, take the 8th and 9th inning away from the opponent, keep Hanrahan and get a good set-up guy. Mix and matching is not my idea of a closer or set-up guy.