Comments on: When It Makes Sense to Give Up a Draft Pick

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 19:15:00 +0000

Excellent article and analysis!

By: Tim Williams

Tim Williams — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 15:25:00 +0000

That doesn’t apply for these compensation picks. These are protected. The ones that aren’t protected are the ones that are given when you don’t sign a draft pick. If you don’t sign your first round pick, for example, you’re given a compensation pick the next year, although that isn’t protected.
In this case, a compensation pick is given, but it is protected. For example, in 2009, Toronto had the 37th pick in the draft. They drafted James Paxton, but he didn’t sign. So they got the 38th pick in the 2010 draft as compensation. The 2010 pick was unprotected. The 2009 pick was protected.

By: Steve

Steve — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 15:19:00 +0000

Another point is that the comp picks are unprotected, unlike the 2nd round pick. Small point, but the Pirates loos leverage with the comp picks, makint it much less likely that they go for a risky pick. If you look back at recent sandwich round picks, they are almost all players that would sign for sure ( a lot of college seniors). That a legitimate point to consider when you start comparing the 2nd round pick the Pirates are giving up to the comp picks that they may receive for ranked ARB players.

By: Tim Williams

Tim Williams — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 15:05:00 +0000

It takes awhile for picks to translate in to major league players. Look at Robbie Grossman. Drafted in 2008, and only now in 2011, after his third full season, is he breaking out and starting to get recognition as a top prospect. And that’s a normal timeline for a high school player.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 15:05:00 +0000

To stay competitive, the Pirates have to rack up picks forever, just like the Rays.

Obviously they can’t suck at the major league level forever (although 19 years is probably close to forever). But, none of these guys mentioned by SI/MLBTR, to include Hernandez is going to keep the Pirates from sucking. They will suck next year (as they did this year) regardless of who they bring in or do not bring in.

I would rather watch them suck with guys who might end up succeeding or will be here later than watch them suck with another group of stop gaps who are hoping to be traded to a contender or looking for their last contract.

By: Tim Williams

Tim Williams — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 15:03:00 +0000

A team gets picks for a ranked free agent. Type A free agents land two picks. Type B free agents land one pick. Hernandez is a Type A free agent.
As for why he’d come to PNC, there aren’t many teams looking for catching. So it’s not like Hernandez has much of a choice.

In regards to his playing time, he did miss 59 games at the end of the year in 2009 to a knee injury. He missed 13 games in 2010 with a knee injury. But he was relatively healthy in 2011, with only a few day to day injuries. His playing time was reduced mostly because the Reds were splitting time and giving him a reduced workload.

By: Bob

Bob — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 14:57:00 +0000

So how long are we just gonna rack up picks and continue sucking in the majors? Picks are only as good as the people that coach them up through the ranks and to this point Pirates development hasn’t proven that they can do what the Rays do. Basically from my perspective the FO just spends 10M in the draft so they can make excuses for not spending 25M in FA market.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 14:55:00 +0000

Perhaps I’m having a senior moment, but when did a team start getting multiple picks when a player goes to free agency? No coffee yet for me either so I’ll use that as my excuse.

The Pirates don’t seek the #1 choice at any position. Folks you know better. If he’s the best available what earthly reason would he have to come to PNC?

The BMTIBB certainly has an intenal value of something around half value for him. No one is worth $5MM/yr unless it’s a minor leaguer buried deep in the system is the view for the BMTIBB.

Dropkick bought up some solid points. I feel like 97 games/yr for a catcher is pretty good tho. There will be competition for him. Expect the usual PR about the PBC being in “serious” discussions with Hernandez initially but all going quiet when once money enters the picture.

Hernandez would be a serious upgrade even at 2yrs/$15MM. If you’re ever going to have success, and that is not the goal of the BMTIBB, you’re eventually going to have to start overpaying. With so many holes to fill Hernandez would be a good one to start with. He’d be like a coach on the field. I don’t see him being anything beyond 2 yrs except assuming journeyman status. THAT will be when the Pirates strike.

By: Bob

Bob — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 14:55:00 +0000

If he is actually willing to come play in Pittsburgh it is worth giving up the pick, no question.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 13:17:00 +0000

This is a well written article. I think it makes a better case for not signing him however.

There are some other points about Hernandez that need to be understood when evaluating his rewards to risks. First, he has health issues. Hernandez hasn’t played more than 97 games in a season in the past three seasons. Do the Pirates really want to invested their limited resources on a player who misses half the season as his norm?

Second, he will be costly to the Pirates. There may not be many teams looking for catching but there will be enough to drive his cost up. The Reds freed up salary when they declined Cordero’s option. That puts them in the market. The Red Sox would likely overpay for him to back their alphabet soup catcher. The Nationals have been known to throw money lately, they may be interested in RH as a back up to Ramos. The Tigers, Dodgers, Marlins, Giants (depending on Posey’s health) and a few others may be interested in a part-time catcher. It may be a small market, but there will be enough of a market to drive up Hernandez’s cost.

Third, also related to cost. RH made about $3M last year. It will likely take at least $10M to sign him for two years. That is too much, when added to the cost of losing the pick, for a part-time catcher. As we’ve seen in the draft the past two seasons, there are much better ways to invest $10M.

Finally, look at RH’s performance. He has an .852 OPS at home in Cincinnati. In his three years in Cincy, his road OPS has been .641 (2009), .763 (2010), and .637 (2011). Last year, the difference between his road OPS and home OPS was 340 points. His offense, based on the numbers is park generated. Based on limited data, he has just a .650 OPS in PNC Park. I don’t think that translates to PNC Park.

RH is a nice player but not one we should give up a pick to get. The costs and the risks significantly out weigh the benefits. Maybe if the Pirates were making a run at the division, I would sign him, but not now, not in the position this team is in. The Pirates should be racking up as many picks as possible, not letting them get away.