The Pirates Need Another Starting Pitcher

The Pittsburgh Pirates made one addition to their starting rotation this off-season, adding Erik Bedard to a one year deal. Their rotation heading in to the year looks decent, with Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton, and James McDonald all looking like locks for the rotation. They also have Kevin Correia and Brad Lincoln as the top options for the fifth starter role. That group doesn’t have an ace, but has a few guys who qualify as number three starters, and one who could be a number two (Bedard).

Can the Pirates be satisfied with the addition of Bedard this off-season? Or should they be searching for one more starter to round out the rotation? Let’s take a look at the available options, the internal backup plans, and the external options that are available on the market to answer that question.

Locks For the Rotation

Erik Bedard

The Pirates signed Bedard to a one year, $4.5 M deal. He’s going to make the rotation without a doubt. The question is: how many innings will he throw? He threw 129.1 innings last year, but missed the 2010 season, and threw less than 85 innings in each of the previous two years. He’s only been above 150 innings twice in his career. When he is healthy his stuff is outstanding, and easily the best in the rotation. But expecting him to make 30 or more starts, which he’s only done once in his career, is being unrealistic.

Realistic Best Case Scenario: Trying to keep with reality here, the best case scenario would be a season similar to Bedard’s 2011 season. That would be 24 starts, 129.1 innings, and the great production that comes with it. Moving to the NL and pitching in PNC Park could help the left hander put up some strong numbers.

Contingency Plan Needed For: It’s not really a question of “Will Bedard get injured?”  It’s a question of when he will get injured. If he only makes 15 starts like the 2008 and 2009 seasons, the Pirates will need someone they can rely on for half a season. And there’s no guarantee that an injury will wait until someone like Kyle McPherson, Jeff Locke, or Rudy Owens is ready to come up mid-season.

Jeff Karstens

Karstens is coming off a year where he had a 3.38 ERA in 162.1 innings. He wasn’t as good as those numbers, helped by a 77.4% stand rate and a .275 BABIP. Those numbers should regress in 2012, but Karstens has the stuff to put up solid numbers.

Realistic Best Case Scenario: His xFIP in 2011 was a 4.00. Last year he pitched 162.1 innings, which was his highest since 2006 when he threw 190.1 innings between AA, AAA, and the majors.  His 2011 season could put him in position to make a full season’s worth of starts. If he can do that with a 4.00 ERA he would provide the Pirates with a good number three starter.

Contingency Plan Needed For: Karstens is a pretty safe play, although he’s not a high reward guy unless he can somehow have another lucky season. He was unlucky in 2010, with a .309 BABIP and a 12.5% HR/FB ratio. Despite having a 4.26 xFIP his ERA was 4.92. If his 2011 luck swings too far in the other direction, and goes to the 2010 numbers, the Pirates might have to look for a replacement.

James McDonald

McDonald’s numbers took an early hit in the month of April when he came back too soon from a Spring Training injury. He had a 10.12 ERA in his first four starts of the year. From that point forward he put up a 3.49 ERA in over 150 innings. In 2010 with the Pirates he had a 3.52 ERA in 64 innings.

Realistic Best Case Scenario: His xFIP numbers are closer to a 4.00, but McDonald has played above those numbers in each of his two years with the Pirates. If he can put up numbers in the 3.50 ERA range again, he could prove that it wasn’t luck.

Contingency Plan Needed For: His luck last year was in the form of a 77% strand rate. He’s dealt with some walk issues in his career, which will start to hurt once his strand rate drops to the normal rates. He’s also a fly ball pitcher, which means we should expect more HR/9 ratios like his 1.26 in 2011.

Charlie Morton

Morton turned in to a whole new pitcher in 2011. He added a new grip for his sinker, and re-worked his delivery to match the delivery of Roy Halladay. The end result was that Morton had a 3.83 ERA in 171.2 innings. His xFIP wasn’t far off those numbers, sitting at a 4.08.

Realistic Best Case Scenario: Now that he has a full season with his new delivery and new pitch, Morton should be comfortable enough to avoid some of the inconsistencies he saw during the 2011 season. There were times when he struggled with his sinker, and there were other times when he was hard to hit. The Pirates could expect a 3.75 ERA over a full season if he can minimize those inconsistencies in 2012.

Contingency Plan Needed For: His control has been bad, and he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters. Unless he either cuts down on the walks or increases the strikeouts, he’ll be relying on his defense a lot. That could lead to some bad starts, and possibly throw him off his game. He could also miss time at the start of the year, although the Pirates won’t need a fifth starter until April 24th. They will only need one spot start before that point, and Morton could be back by the 24th.

Fifth Starter Competition

Kevin Correia

Correia had an interesting year in 2011. He won a lot of games at the start of the year, although a lot of that had to do with some amazing run support from his offense. He got off to a strong start at the beginning of the year, was decent in May and June, then fell apart in July and August, before being shut down in mid-August. He saw a major decline in his strikeout numbers, and his 4.79 ERA was unlucky when looking at his 4.38 xFIP.

Realistic Best Case Scenario: I always liked Correia, but part of that was due to his strikeout rate. With a 4.5 K/9 he’s just a right handed Zach Duke, which is a horrible fit for PNC Park. If he can get his strikeout rate back to his career 6.26 K/9 mark, or even to his 7.14 K/9 in 2010, then he could have a shot of putting up an ERA in the 4.20 range.

Contingency Plan Needed For: If Correia repeats his 2011 numbers it wouldn’t be the worst thing. A 4.79 ERA is above-average for a fifth starter in the majors. However, the Pirates can’t settle for above-average fifth starter numbers when they lack a number one starter to balance out the rotation. It might be harder for Correia to remain in the rotation in 2012 if he repeats his 2011 season.

Brad Lincoln

Lincoln got a shot at the end of the year, putting up a 4.72 ERA in 47.2 innings. His numbers were inflated by six runs in 1.2 innings during his next to last start. He definitely earned an opportunity to start in the majors.

Realistic Best Case Scenario: His xFIP during his short 2011 season was 4.02. If he can do that over a full season, he would add value to the rotation and prove he belongs.

Contingency Plan Needed For: Lincoln is unproven, which is reason enough to have a backup plan.

Internal Contingency Plans

Jeff Locke - He made five starts in the majors last year, but didn’t look ready. He needs more time in AAA, but could be an option by mid-May.

Rudy Owens - He had a down year in 2011, but I believe the stuff is still there to get him to the majors. He’ll need to prove that he’s back, which might keep him down until June at the earliest.

Kyle McPherson - He’s yet to pitch above the AA level. I could see him moving up to AAA to start the year, which wouldn’t put him in the majors until June or July, assuming he continues putting up good numbers in the jump to AAA.

Chris Leroux - He’s working as a starter in the Dominican Leagues, although that’s to force him to use his secondary pitches more often. He doesn’t have a history of pitching a lot of innings, setting a career high in 2011 with 93. The Pirates don’t consider him an option for the rotation because of his lack of innings, but he could become an emergency option in the middle of the year, at which point he probably wouldn’t see a major increase in his overall innings in 2012.

External Options

Jeff Francis - The left hander has had interest from the Pirates this off-season, although that was before they signed Bedard. He’s also drawn interest from the Twins, Mariners, Dodgers, and Rockies. He’s left handed, pitched 183 innings last year, and has posted a 47% ground ball ratios the last two years. He’d be a good fit for PNC Park.

Paul Maholm - It’s been surprising that Maholm hasn’t received much interest this off-season. Or maybe it hasn’t. In his career he has a 3.80 ERA at PNC Park and a 5.03 ERA on the road. He’d be a good fit for the Pirates, but not so much for other teams. It wouldn’t be a bad thing to bring him back and take advantage of his PNC Park numbers.

Wei-Yin Chen - The left hander from Taiwan will likely command a multi-year deal, and could end up getting $20 M over four years. He used to throw 95 MPH with dominant strikeout numbers. He had Tommy John surgery and now throws 91 MPH with a 5.1 K/9 in 2011. The left hander would be a good fit for PNC Park, although I’m not sure he’d be a much stronger option than Francis or Maholm, unless the 26 year old saw a return in his velocity.

Edwin Jackson would be a great fit for the Pirates.

Edwin Jackson - At the start of the off-season I chalked Jackson up as a guy who the Pirates couldn’t get. The lack of interest in the right hander this off-season could change that. There have been teams interested in Jackson, but not the interest you’d expect for a 28 year old pitcher coming off a season with a 3.79 ERA in 199.2 innings. Jackson’s xFIP has been in the 3.70 range the last two years. He strikes out about seven batters per nine innings, and has pitched 200+ innings in each of the last three seasons, if you include the 2011 playoffs. He made $8.35 M in 2011, and appears to be looking for a big deal.

Teams have been wary of Jackson’s price tag (Twins, Yankees) so far. In an interview at PirateFest, Frank Coonelly said that the 2012 Opening Day payroll will be “higher than at the end of the season, with flexible room in the budget to add a piece if needed”. The 2011 payroll ended around $53 M, which means the 2012 payroll could start at $55 M if the Pirates spend what Coonelly projects. Right now they’re projected for $46.177 M, which gives them some room to add payroll.

It’s not known what Jackson wants. Depending on his demands, the Pirates could be in a good position to land him by spending some money. There’s not much demand on him, which could mean that his price tag really is too high. However, there’s never really been a lot of demand for Jackson. He’s kind of an undervalued asset. His WAR the last three years has been 3.8, 3.8, and 3.6. He’s played for five teams in the last four years, including three teams in the last two years. He’s not an ace, but he’s a guy who can pitch 200 innings with an ERA in the 3.70 range. That has value, especially to the Pirates, who lack a 200 inning a year starter and have a rotation full of guys who are likely to end up in the 4.00 ERA range.

Jackson’s agent is Scott Boras, which means he’ll likely go to the highest bidder. Normally I’d say that if the Yankees are backing off Jackson’s price tag then it’s too high for the Pirates. Considering Jackson’s history, and how he’s been passed from team to team, I’d say that he might be a bit undervalued. It’s hard to say how the Pirates feel about him, but he’d do wonders for their rotation. In the short term he’d be a guy who would lead the rotation, likely in innings and numbers. In the long term he’d be a good option to stick behind Gerrit Cole and/or Jameson Taillon. A rotation with Jackson, Bedard, Karstens, McDonald, and Morton would be strong. The Pirates would have good backups at the start of the year in Correia and Lincoln. They’d also have some options that could be available mid-season in Locke, McPherson, and Owens.

Realistically the Pirates are going to need eight to seventeen starts to pair with Erik Bedard. They’re likely going to see one of Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, or Charlie Morton have a bad year. They’re going to see at least one other starter go down with an injury. Adding one more starter at the beginning of the year would be a huge boost to the rotation. It won’t hurt as much when Bedard goes down with an injury. It will be easier when someone else gets injured, or when one of the starting pitchers struggles. And if none of those things happen? Then it’s a good problem to have a rotation with a healthy Bedard, production from Karstens, McDonald, and Morton, and ideally, someone like Edwin Jackson leading the group. The Pirates have the money to make this possible, and at this point in the off-season that money might be best spent boosting the rotation.

 

Tim Williams

Author: Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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  • http://twitter.com/JimmyCoverdale Jimmy Coverdale

    Tim, in Keith Law’s top 50 free agent rankings (http://es.pn/sWg5Ts) he said that Wei-Yin Chen’s fastball was back up to 92-94 and the slider was sharper by the end of the season. I’d like to see someone like Chen or Jackson – someone who will be around more than a year to bridge the gap until Luis Heredia is ready

    • Lee Young

      JImmy………..I’m with you on that.

      Tim……….you make a very compelling argument! Great job as usual. Plus, I got ‘the book’. Read the whole thing as soon as I got it. Wonderful! Best Christmas present I’ve received (outside of the fact that I am retiring). :)

  • Anonymous

    I absolutely agree. The additional wins we are seeking will come with strong pitching more so than with Derek Lee at 1st base or spending the same money on a first baseman. 

  • Justin Rossini

    Great work, Tim…I just don’t understand why they don’t make a grab for one of the many decent FA pitchers above.  The money is there.  The only way this team is going to have a prayer of being competitive is a repeat of the starting pitching from the first half of the season.

  • http://twitter.com/sdimmick3 Chicken McD

    Heredia will not be ready for some time….more like Cole or Taillon

  • john.alcorn

    Disagree, if there are only funds left for help at 1B or SP (as the current payroll would suggest), they need the bat much more. As is there are 6 MLB SP and Locke, Wilson, McPherson, and Owens at AAA and many say Cole could pitch in the bigs in 2012 too. The problem last year was scoring runs not preventing them. I’d rather have the 25-30 HR .800 ops from Carlos Pena than another #4 SP. It would be different if we were talking about adding a front end guy but that is a complete pipedream (as is even mentioning Edwin Jackson). In a perfect world you could add both, but we know this team isn’t going to break $60 million in payroll.  

    • Todd Smith

      Agree.  As it stands right now, Neil Walker is likely our cleanup hitter.  That seems like a much bigger problem than replacing a pitcher who led our team in wins last year with a Jeff Francis type pitcher.

      Correia had some crazy home/away splits last year.  On the road, he was about as good as anybody in the league last year with a 10-3 record, 2.64 ERA and 1.150 WHIP.  At PNC, he was miserable with a 2-8 record, 7.71 ERA and 1.714 WHIP.  PNC isn’t THAT tough to explain those kind of splits, so I expect those numbers to come down a bit at home this year.

      • Anonymous

        Hmmm.. maybe we should bring back Maholm and “platoon” he and Correia!?!

        Correia and his 2011 2.64 road ERA can take all the road starts while Maholm and his PNC career 3.8 ERA can take all the home starts!
        They’d each pitch less over the season and wouldn’t burn out by August! :)

        Hey, if you can platoon your starting first baseman….

        This is a joke people.. please don’t take me seriously…
        … still…….

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      First base is definitely a concern for me, but a little less of a concern with McGehee. He’s only a year removed from a season where he hit for a .285 average with 23 homers and an .801 OPS. The Pirates would have to start him if he put those numbers up again.

      I mentioned a week ago that the offense would be much stronger with a starting first baseman, and Jones/McGehee on the bench as backup plans. I still believe that, but you’ve got a situation where you can either add a first baseman or a pitcher. I believe pitching is more important, and because pitchers are prone to injuries more than first basemen, I’d say that pitching would take priority.

      If they didn’t have McGehee, I’d probably prefer a first baseman. But I don’t think it would be a bad gamble to see if McGehee can bounce back to his 2010 numbers, and the only way to do that would be to give him playing time.

      • john.alcorn

        Fair enough, and you are probably correct that they view McGehee/Jones as a viable 1B plan. Maybe it will be, but I’d choose the power stick and then a very strong bench with both those guys on it over another backend SP.

        I hope that Coonelly is correct saying the payroll will be higher than the end of 2011, because that would require a reasonably substantial acquistion to add $8-10 million in payroll. At this point just make the team better with one or the other.

  • http://twitter.com/vabarletta Vicente Barletta

    Great analysis. I´ve been hoping for the Pirates to sign Jackson all the offseason. At first I thought they should trade for Gavin Floyd, but I’d rather overpay for Jackson than giveaway prospects at this time. 
    Hey Tim, any dates for the digital version of the Prospects book? I live overseas and I tried to buy one copy, but PayPal doesn´t accept my credit card from Panama.

  • Anonymous

    What is the problem with Jackson? Something has churned him from team to team in his career,,,,is he a bad apple somehow? He gets it done on the field and that’s what matters. You’ve got to think his asking price starts at $10MM for ’12 and goes to maybe $12MM and $14.5MM for “13 and ’14. Maybe a little steep for the PBC but a 3/$36.5 package isn’t completely out of reach.

    Getting an upgrade like Jackson helps immediately and for 2 or more years, allowing what should be internal upgrades to reach the majors and settle in. This move would probnably prevent a firstbase upgrade of any magnitude in the offseason. It’s a move the Pirates should go for.

  • Anonymous

    I agree that they need a good pitcher, Jackson would work, usually the nearer we get to ST, the more anxious that players get to sign and the price tag usually comes down a little bit.
    I think Morton is the key, he is coming off hip surgery, so even if he pitches it might take a while for him to get to where we need him. Correia might be huge if Morton can’t go early, because Correia has shown the tendancy to pitch well early on.
    If you really take a close look at this pitching staff, almost all of them can go south, none of them have an extended history of excellence, McDonald is a 6 inning pitcher that works harder than a nine inning pitcher does in nine innings.

  • Anonymous

    Certainly not trying to argue, but the Pirates offensive woes start at the other

    side of the infield. Addressing ‘dro in S.T. to determine if he’s AAA bound or

    a real major leaguer will shape the offense. Counting on McGeehee to

    bounce back is one thing (he’s got some track record), counting on ‘dro

    may be a horse of a different color. But if both were to hit on all cylinders

    it would be wonderful.
     

    • http://twitter.com/sdimmick3 Chicken McD

      ‘dro as in Pedro?  Sorry, must not be down with those ebonics

    • Anonymous

      Alvarez is out of options therefore he could not be sent to AAA without clearing waivers. Regardless of what you may think, there is know way in hell Alvarez would clear waivers!!!!!!

  • James S

    I would go after Jeff Francis first. He is a good ground ball pitcher who almost always gives you a quality start.

     But if they can’t get him, I still think they should take a shot at Joe Saunders if his asking price is fair. He pitched decently in a hitters ballpark last year (Arizona), and they wanted him back but then couldnt afford him after they made other acquisitions. Saunders was always a decent, yet somewhat underrated pitcher with Anaheim. He does have a tendency to get hurt though.

    If not Francis or Saunders, then I’d see if Edwin Jackson’s price is fair enough, but I’d be leery of him since so many teams get him and then quickly get rid of him. Is he a nutcase or bad for the clubhouse? Possible. We never know the personalities of these guys, but getting moved every year certainly speaks to that possiblity. Jackson will give you quality starts though, we know that.

  • Anonymous

    I thought since the beginning that theyd make a run at E Jax. I think the trade market(Gio, Neise, etc) has something to say about the availability of guys like him. I also think Prince is holding up not only the 1b market(Lee,Pena, etc..) but teams that are saving $ for him and lose out will have extra $ to pursue a guy like E Jax.

  • Anonymous

    The Bucs should still address first base and starting pitching.  If they can upgrade both with Jackson and Pena or Lee do it, even if it goes over what they think they can afford in payroll.

    Otherwise the team has a good chance of being awful and being an after thought by May.  Why sign Barmes and Barajas if you are not at least hoping to be respectful in 2012?

  • Anonymous

    Interesting theory by BondstheGoat,and I would agree except to add the Holiday Season in there as holding up a lot of movement on the people mentioned.

  • Anonymous

    I would try to sign Edwin Jackson then inquire with the Angels about Kendry Morales. They will want a bounty for Trumbo but Morales could be had for a song(probably). He has had some injury problems the last couple of seasons but he could provide some offense and a solid glove at 1B if healthy. That would also allow for a Jones/McGehee duo on the bench, provided Alvarez can return to his late ’10 season form….

  • Anonymous

    mikez you might want to lookat the spring training tracker. It shows quite a bit, including who has options left and who doesn’t. Alvarez has 1 left. Lots of info there.

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      The one option for Alvarez is assuming that he gets a 4th option year. Usually that’s automatic for players who have used all of their options but have less than five years of pro experience. Nothing official has been announced for Alvarez yet.

  • http://twitter.com/BuccoMike Mike

    The best fit for the Pirates right now in the rotation is Wei-Yin Chen they need a legit 170 to 200 inning starter only thing you can expect from Bedard is about 120 to 125 innings right now cause that’s highest he has pitched since 2007. Last year , with the red sox fans i spoke with said bedard was having high pitch counts most of the year and was starting to break down in august.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Matt-Beam/100001016052787 Matt Beam

    Given the extension that Danks just signed, I doubt the Pirates can get Jackson because 4-5 years at $10-13 million per year will be what Boras is expecting.

    Any word on where H. Kuroda or J. Vazquez might land? If you could get either guy for  2 years and $20 million, I’d do it in a heart beat. 

    While both are older, they have shown no drop off and both will pitch a very effective 200 innings. It would help bridge the staff until Cole is ready and the long term capability of Karstens, Morton, McDonald, and Lincoln can be determined.

    • http://twitter.com/BuccoMike Mike

      Morton isnt really a lock for 200 innings he might be out until late april to may with the surgery he had.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_M4ZLYLHEHIM5V55OWBBBT2UZ5Y TS

    Lee isn’t coming back. Pena isn’t coming. And Jackson ain’t coming. Frank Connelly is making another promise he intends not to keep. Have small expectations of the Pirates and it’s easier to digest when nothing is done.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_J4G6L6A7YD7IL4KGDYICEPPCPQ Moose

      the old joke is….Do you know how you can tell when a lawyer is lying?  When his lips are moving.  It looks like that old joke will apply, regarding any promises Frank Coonelly made about the 2012 Pirates payroll.

  • http://twitter.com/jamesmvargo James Vargo

    Ticking me off watching what the Nationals are doing, while we sit in a weak Central and not even a nibble on MLB Trade Rumors. NEED to upgrade that pitching staff!!!