What Compensation Picks Will the Pirates Receive?
The Pittsburgh Pirates are projected to receive as many as two free agent compensation picks in the 2012 draft. They received one for losing Ryan Doumit to the Minnesota Twins, and are likely to receive another pick once Derrek Lee signs with another team. It’s impossible to know the exact location of the picks at this point. There are still some un-signed free agents who could change the draft order. However, we’re close enough that we can get a good idea of the range for each Pirates’ compensation pick.
Picks one through 31 of the draft belong to the first round. The free agent compensation picks start with pick number 32. Here are the players, in order of their Elias rankings, that would fetch each pick.
Pick. Team (Player that landed the pick)
32. Twins (Michael Cuddyer)
33. Padres (Heath Bell)
34. Athletics (Josh Willingham)
35. Mets (Jose Reyes)
36. Cardinals (Albert Pujols)
37. Red Sox (Jonathan Papelbon)
38. Unsigned (Prince Fielder)
39. Rangers (C.J. Wilson)
40. Phillies (Ryan Madson)
41. Astros (Clint Barmes)
42. Twins (Jason Kubel)
43. Cubs (Aramis Ramirez)
44. Padres (Aaron Harang)
45. Pirates (Ryan Doumit)
46. Rockies (Mark Ellis)
47. Athletics (David DeJesus)
48. White Sox (Mark Buehrle)
49. Reds (Ramon Hernandez)
50. Blue Jays (Frank Francisco)
51. Dodgers (Rod Barajas)
52. Cardinals (Octavio Dotel)
53. Unsigned (Dan Wheeler)
54. Rangers (Darren Oliver)
55. Unsigned (Raul Ibanez)
56. Unsigned (Carlos Pena)
57. Unsigned (Derrek Lee)
58. Unsigned (Francisco Cordero)
59. Blue Jays (Jon Rauch)
60. Unsigned (Edwin Jackson)
61. Blue Jays (Jose Molina)
An earlier version of this post incorrectly had the Pirates receiving picks around number 50. I had the picks ranked by Elias grades. The Elias rankings are used to determine which players get Type A and Type B status. They’re also used to determine which team gets which pick if one team signs two Type A free agents. However, they’re not used to determine the draft order of the compensation round. Mike Axisa of River Avenue Blues pointed out to me that the order is determined by reverse standings, and that every team has to pick once per section (Type A section and Type B section) before a team gets an additional pick.
On a side note, this is kind of a strange system, as it gives the Padres a higher compensation pick for Heath Bell than it would for the Brewers losing Prince Fielder. Clint Barmes gets the number one preference for Type B free agents because the Astros were the worst team in the majors, while Edwin Jackson projects to be 19 spots lower, despite being a much bigger loss to the Cardinals. I guess you can’t complain too much if this system benefits the Pirates, who are losing lower ranked free agents but getting better draft picks.
The pick for Ryan Doumit is pretty much set. The only thing that could change the pick is if Milwaukee re-signed Prince Fielder. The Brewers won’t win the bidding on Fielder, which will keep Doumit locked in for the 45th pick.
The pick for Derrek Lee is harder to project. A worst case scenario has him at the 57th pick, which would require every un-signed player above him signing with a new team. The highest he could go is 53rd, which would require every unsigned player above him to sign with their former team.
The Pirates project to get the 45th pick for Doumit, and something in the 53-57 range for Lee, assuming he signs elsewhere.