Comments on: Updated Value of a Win & How It Relates to Andrew McCutchen Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Fri, 14 Nov 2014 03:58:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: Thom Kay Sun, 19 Feb 2012 22:02:00 +0000 I don’t see the two as comparable. Wells signed his big contract in ’08 at age 30, and it was a massive 7yr, $126M contract. We’re talking about getting McCutchen for 6 yrs, less than $60. 

Not only should we expect him to continue to earn his paycheck at that rate, but the  surplus value we’d get in the short term would outweigh the negative in the future. As long as, of course, he doesn’t have horrible injuries. 

By: BondstheGOAT Sun, 19 Feb 2012 21:19:00 +0000 Just to preface I am very lazy and have no intentions on researching these things myself but is there any comparison to McCutchen and Vernon Wells. i like a 6/58 deal but wouldnt go any higher than that. It seems that some people think they should just pay him whatever to make sure he stays. Could doing something like that end up like Wells? Overpayed albatross killing a team late in the deal. Now I dont think Cutch will regress like that but he is a bit small to continue with that power and speed is usually the first thing to go. Just a small under researched observation

By: emjayinTN Sun, 19 Feb 2012 21:10:00 +0000 I have been pitching the following for the past 3 months on different MB’s

2012     $  3.00 mil
2013     $  5.50
2014     $  7.50
2015     $  9.50
2016     $11.75  1st year of FA
2017     $14.00  2nd year of FA
2018     $17.00  Club Option or Vesting Option

That’s $51.5 mil for 6 years with a 7th year CO or Vesting Option.  If the Pirates choose to add a nice signing bonus, I think they can sell this.  With someone who has increased the number of HR’s from 12 to 16 to 23, he has moved from our leadoff to a #3 batter – he is only going to get better every year.

By: leadoff Sun, 19 Feb 2012 20:00:00 +0000 He might have a 5.7 WAR, but that is a misleading stat IMO, designed to determine pay scales, but not a good stat if you are looking for certain accomplishments out of a player.
For example McCutchen has a 5.7 WAR and was not even a 1.0 WAR for the entire month of September. He did not hit for average either.
A player can’t bunch his stats into a month and spread them out IMO. If I were the Pirates McCutchen would have to show me a full season of quality.

I do know that the Pirates and McCutchen tried to put a deal together least summer and over this winter, McCutchen would not take the deal.
Since we know for sure they have made offers to McCutchen and with the Pirates sabermetric stance of values, one might surmise that McCutchen’s camp has McCutchen at a higher value down the road. The Pirates are pretty good at paying players their current values.

I also agree that the Pirates would be wrong to sign McCutchen for just his ARB years.


By: Kevin_Creagh Sun, 19 Feb 2012 19:51:00 +0000 The whole thought process is that McCutchen and his agent don’t want to give up ANY free agent years.  Why would he want to give up 3-4 years in your scenario?

It seems as if he wants to put his time in here and then hit the FA market young enough to get a Crawford-type of deal.

By: ElGaupo77 Sun, 19 Feb 2012 19:00:00 +0000 There is ZERO chance he signs a 5 or 6 year contract beginning in 2012.  I’m not even sure about 7 years.  He would sign a 9 year deal and possibly a 8 year.  

Maybe a 6 year contract starting in 2015.  Not a chance right now.   
Great article other than that speculation.

By: Giraffe Monsoon Sun, 19 Feb 2012 18:12:00 +0000 He’s such natural talent that I would go 7-8 years if possible and just pray he never gets badly hurt. Lock him in at least until he approaches the age of 33-34.

By: CWPCWP Sun, 19 Feb 2012 16:13:00 +0000 I think by the time he is a free agent, with inflation and without injury problems, McCutchen will surpass Kemp’s deal.