Draft Day Three Preview: Don’t Count Out Day Three Picks

Almost every draft article I’ve written has started with something along the lines of “the following changes have been made this year due to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement”. The new CBA changed a lot about the draft. For day three, it removed the final ten rounds.

That’s not a huge loss. The Pirates haven’t drafted a ton of people in rounds 41-50 over the last few years. The only guys still in the system are Jonathan Schwind, Bryton Trepagnier, Logan Pevny, and Zach Foster. And non-drafted free agent deals are still allowed, so players who normally went in the 41-50 range could still end up on a team.

In previous years, most of the over-slot spending by the Pirates has come in the top 15 rounds. However, they did take a few significant over-slot picks after round 15, with guys like Quinton Miller in 2008, and Ryan Hafner and Jared LaKind in 2010. They will have a hard time going over slot on day three this year, with only $100,000 to spend until the player counts against the total bonus pool. But that doesn’t mean the Pirates can’t find some sleepers.

Here are some of the notable picks from rounds 16-40 that the Pirates have made in the last few years.

2011

Josh Poytress, LHP, 18th Round

Matt Benedict, RHP, 30th Round

Both pitchers are having good 2012 seasons, although each will need to have success in Double-A before really justifying their spot on this list.

2010

Matt Curry, 1B, 16th Round

Adalberto Santos, OF, 22nd Round

Casey Sadler, RHP, 25th Round

Curry and Santos are both hitting in Double-A. Santos had surprising numbers before a knee injury. Curry has been off and on, showing some signs of power. Sadler has been an impressive relief prospect in West Virginia.

2009

Ryan Beckman, RHP, 18th Round

Phil Irwin, RHP, 21st Round

Zac Fuesser, LHP, 34th Round

The main guy here is Phil Irwin, who has moved up and has had some success in the Altoona rotation. He’s got a shot at being a number five starter in the majors one day, although his best bet of making it is in relief.

2008

Jarek Cunningham, SS, 18th round

Cunningham was a notable pick, but he signed for $100,000, which means he wouldn’t have hurt the Pirates under the new rules. He’s been held back by injuries, but has a lot of power for a middle infielder, and is age appropriate for his current level, which is Double-A.

It’s hard to predict who could be more than just an organizational guy on draft day. For example, this is what I had to say about three of the top guys from above once they signed:

Matt Curry

Curry, a first baseman, was rated the #65 prospect in the state of Texas by Baseball America.  He displayed some power in his senior year at TCU, with 17 homers in 218 at-bats, along with 12 stolen bases and a .353 average.  Curry also hit 26 doubles, which could be a sign of future power potential.  Curry was responsible for some heroics in the CWS, hitting a grand slam in the eighth inning against Florida State, giving TCU a 9-7 lead in a game that they would go on to win 11-7.  TCU was eliminated by UCLA two games later in the semi-finals.

Adalberto Santos

Santos, a senior out of Oregon State, hit for a .336 average with 10 homers and 20 steals in 217 at-bats in 2010.  Santos was drafted as a second baseman, although he has been assigned to State College and is listed as an outfielder.

Phil Irwin

Irwin was a starter for Ole Miss, along with fifth round pick Nathan Baker. Irwin had a 3.84 ERA last year with a 73:20 K/BB ratio in 86.2 IP.

Basically the key trend was strong numbers in each case, and that’s about it.

With that in mind, one guy to keep an eye on today is Raph Rhymes. The Pirates drafted him last year in the late rounds, but he decided to retur to LSU for his senior year. That paid off, as he hit for a .469 average to lead the nation. Baseball America ranked him number 241 in the draft, and he wouldn’t be a bad guy to go after early on day three, assuming he signed the consent form for the Pirates to draft him again.

As for the rest of day three, check back at noon for regular updates. We will be uploading player pages for each pick to the site as the picks are made, and picks will be broken down on the site in groups of five, starting after round number 20. You can also follow me on Twitter @timwilliamsP2 to get regular updates on what is happening in the draft.

Tim Williams

Author: Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/reedjohnmiller Reed Miller

    “Basically the key trend was strong numbers in each case, and that’s about it.”

    I’m inclined to believe that actual demonstration that one can play baseball, albeit at a lower level, ought to count for a lot. All this stuff about tools, projectable frames, plus this or that, etc, is fine and I understand that projection is important. But a guy who hits .469 in the SEC is obviously worth a shot.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=72405411 Ian Rothermund

      I do agree with you to a certain extent. Numbers should be taken into consideration, but at the same time, even a guy that can put up decent numbers in high-A can have deficiencies that will hold them back at the next level. There are very few guys that just have to go through the motions in the minors. With that in mind, it’s not necessarily about the numbers a guy puts up in high school or college, but why he was able to do it in the first place. Gerritt Cole put up a 3+ era, and I’d pick him all over again given the opportunity.

      • http://www.facebook.com/reedjohnmiller Reed Miller

        Yeah, agreed, but as the rounds wear on, the Gerrit Coles are gone, so looking for guys who “come to the ballpark every day and play the right way,” to use a common cliche, seems to make sense.

        Besides, .469…is that a typo? That’s unreal.

        • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=72405411 Ian Rothermund

          Yeah, that’s ridiculous. What’s wrong with this guy that he didn’t go sooner?

  • cocktailsfor2

    FYI, Poytress sprained his UCL, but should be coming off the DL any day now.

    (I guess I shouldn’t have leaked that before the next Rumbunter Podcast comes out, but what the heck.)

  • john.alcorn

    Tim, a general draft rules question. Since teams like NYY and BOS are restricted to low slot 1st round picks annually (presumably), what is to stop them from going “all-in” in a draft year? Say 2013 is a deep prep draft class, couldn’t a team go ahead and draft 20 rounds of top prep talent then sign them for whatever it takes? They would get 20 top 100-200 overall level talents in exchange for two low slot 1st round picks and paying $1.75 on the $1.00.
    Really they could indefinately do this and essentially just punt round 1 for a stockpile of prep players.

  • Lee Young

    “However, they did take a few significant over-slot picks after round 15,
    with guys like Quinton Miller in 2008, and Ryan Hafner and Jared LaKind
    in 2010.”

    So far it looks like should’ve saved their money….lol.

    But, I’m happy they took their shots….