Analysis

First Pitch: Correia Has Been Lucky, But Unlucky in a Way

First Pitch: Correia Has Been Lucky, But Unlucky in a Way

I've talked a lot this year about how Kevin Correia has been lucky. After tonight's start, the right-hander has a .248 BABIP and a 74.8% strand rate. Both are lucky, and both are due for a regression. Correia has a 4.43 ERA, although his xFIP is 4.97.

Correia has been lucky, and is closer to a 5.00 ERA pitcher than he is a 4.00 ERA pitcher. But in a way, he's also been unlucky this year, considering the Pirates' situation.

The Pirates have a great rotation this year. It's to the point where two bad starts can be enough for fans to call for a rotation change. The 3.79 ERA by the rotation this year ranks eighth in the majors. Their 3.94 xFIP ranks 12th, and suggests that the ERA is somewhat legit, especially when you consider that Correia drags that number down.

Correia is what he is. In a bad rotation, he's a fourth or fifth starter. The Colorado Rockies have a 6.27 ERA this year in their rotation. Minnesota has a 6.01 ERA. Kansas City has a 5.05 ERA. Any one of those teams would hav...

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Analysis
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Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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