Trade Values: Kevin Youkilis

The Boston Red Sox are reported to be in full-on sell mode with regards to Kevin Youkilis.  There have been reports that Youkilis is “being shopped everywhere” and the Pirates have been one of the teams linked to him right from the start.  If this were 2008-2010, that would be fantastic news.  But alas, the calendar says this is 2012 and this season has been a trying one for Youkilis.

He has never been a picture of good health, but this year his back has really flared up on him.  There was also his dust up with new manager Bobby Valentine at the beginning of the season.  During an interview, Valentine openly questioned Youkilis’ heart and desire.  From that point on, it seemed as the question was not “if” but “when” he would be gone.

Youkilis is having an awful season at the plate, which isn’t helping his trade value.  Right now, he has a .215/.301/.341 (642 OPS) and a 74 OPS+, which would be the first time since his debut in 2004 that his OPS+ has been below 100.  To date he has been worth -0.2 WAR.  The 33 year-old is in the last guaranteed year of his deal and is making $12M in 2012.  He has an option for $13M for 2013 or a $1M buyout.

What is the true value of Youkilis, though, for the remainder of 2012?  Is it the player that from 2008 to 2011 averaged 4.9 WAR/season?  Or it is the washed up/injury prone version in 2012 that some would have you believe?  Let’s give Youkilis a little benefit of the doubt and say that a change of scenery (plus a position switch to 1B) would have a rejuvenating effect on him and Youkilis would generate 1.2 WAR to give him 1.0 WAR overall in 2012.

Year Remaining Salary WAR FA Value Surplus Value
2012 $7,000,000 1.2 $6,000,000 ($1,000,000)
2013 $1,000,000 ($1,000,000)
Total ($2,000,000)

As you can see, the Red Sox would have to kick in $2 M under this scenario to be able to justify the trade to a team, let alone expect any prospect of any note to come back.  But with Will Middlebrooks clearly showing he’s the future at 3B, plus David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez occupying 1B and DH, there is no room for Youkilis anymore.  The Sox also may want to think about reloading and getting younger, as well.

The Red Sox would have to pass $5 M over to a team to expect any type of C-level prospect to come back in a trade.  More likely, it would be a low level hitter or relief pitcher.

All of this assumes Youkilis could regain his value with a trade. The lower his value is set, the more the Red Sox have to pay. If teams feel he can only put up the equivalent of a 0.5 WAR, for example, then that’s an extra $3.5 M that the Red Sox would have to pay. In that scenario they’d have to pay $5.5 M of his remaining salary to move him, and pay all of his salary just to get a marginal prospect in return.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/jarrod.ranone Jarrod Ranone

    Alderson for Youkilis?

    • scrappy2499

      No way, Alderson has been playing well this year…Like Kevin said he isn’t going to fetch any marginal prospect at this point. Take on some salary and throw em a warm body relief pitcher…take it or leave it. They need to unload him more than we need him. If he turns a 180 great for us if not we didn’t lose anything in the deal.

  • pirateswillwinin2012

    Brock Holt and Matt Hague….but I don’t want Youkilis

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Richard-YaZhynka/100000448392567 Richard Ya’Zhynka

    Chris Leroux for Alfonso Soriano.

  • salempirate

    A washed up/injury prone player with a high salary. Just what Huntington bites on.

  • BlueBomber72

    Buy low. Not sure the specific player it would take, but it doesn’t sound like it would take much. He’s unhappy where he’s at, change of scenery and one more salary drive might give us a cheap upgrade at first. Well worth the risk.

  • http://twitter.com/pappyfriday Pappy

    Youk is well known in Boston to be a class A a-hole and I hope against hope the Bucs don’t bother with him even if the Sox pay all of his salary.

  • st1300b

    Bottom line do you want Youk playing over McGehee? I don’t a 29 yr old still has something to prove and play for. No thanks – not for free.

  • http://twitter.com/jlease717 John Lease

    Pass

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