Comments on: How Much Trade Value Does Your Prospect Have? http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Tue, 27 May 2014 16:32:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.3 By: Kevin_Creagh http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html#comment-16458 Sun, 24 Jun 2012 01:19:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=33724#comment-16458 1. I would have to check for a %, but it would depend on what you call a “low WAR”. Is that less than 6 (1 WAR/year) for their 6 year career?
2. Yes, if they never made it they got a zero.

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By: Kevin_Creagh http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html#comment-16457 Sun, 24 Jun 2012 01:18:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=33724#comment-16457 1. Peak vs. appearances we labored with, but I definitely didn’t want to do every appearance. I called this The Jackson Melian Factor. Melian was an overhyped Yankee prospect on the list only because he was young. He would have negatively skewed the ranks, while the truly elite guys never lasted as long on the list.
2. A true, true analysis would have taken each year and weighted it using the factors described in the analysis. But it took Steve and I 2 weeks to do just this and I wanted it out for trade season. I still feel the margin of error would be sufficient for the way we did it.
3. Using the weighted 2/3 of all value in arb years was the way around this for me. It also averaged the WAR during arb years to get a value.
4. Not sure about this one. I think you need them for integrity.

Thank you for reading it and your GREAT questions.

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By: RandyLinville http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html#comment-16432 Sat, 23 Jun 2012 02:44:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=33724#comment-16432 This is great work, Kevin. Really interesting. I agree with Rory’s questions #1 and #4 above (actually I don’t necessarily disagree with any of it, but I’m quite sure I didn’t think about it to the depth he has). Anyway, I’m wondering a couple of things:

1. what percent of the players in the study were unproductive (either a low WAR, a negative WAR or never even made it to the bigs)? Anytime a team deals for a prospect, the possibility of him not working out for whatever reason has to enter the internal conversation. I mean, Ryan Anderson was ranked as a top 20 pitcher four straight years by BA and never tossed a big league pitch. But he was only counted once in the study (from what I can tell). Matt Riley was top 20 twice. So was John Patterson. On the flip side, so was Matt Cain.
2. How do you account for the absence of WAR for those players who never made it to the Bigs? Did you count it as a zero?

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By: Rory Sant http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html#comment-16396 Fri, 22 Jun 2012 08:16:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=33724#comment-16396 I’m sure this was very challenging and exhaustive, but I’m confused about some of the approach to the statistical analysis and would like more clarification.

1) Why did you have to choose between peak value or latest appearance? Couldn’t you count a player multiple times when they appear on the list more then once. I would think this would end up just averaging into the values and be more indicative of what kind of value your prospect is worth as over-hyping is definitely part of this process and not all ~whatever~ ranked prospects are traded at their latest values.

2) Doesn’t using a combined present worth conversion (.82) skew the values? Using that system two players producing an equal WAR over six years would be valued the same if one only produced in year 1 and the other only produced in year 6. I don’t think there is a true conversion from the exponential scale to a linear scale and the only way to get accurate values is to multiple each years WARs individually and sum them up.

3) I’m not sure if the arbitration calculation model takes into account that a player producing consistently for 4 years isn’t as worth as much as a free agent as a player producing consistently for 6 years. This would mean 40% in year four is based on a different salary than the 80% at year 6. That said I don’t know if that matters. But like the prospect values, are the arbitration calculations and the $5MIL/WAR model somewhat older as well.

4) Would it help to even out the numbers and make them slightly more predictive to throw out a few of the top and bottom values when calculating the average? This would help outliers from distorting the mean.

I know I’m being overly negative. I’m not trying to troll and appreciate the work. These are genuine questions, I am by no means an expert. I want to know actual answers to better my statistical understanding, and also the trade value pieces are some of my favorite to read and I’d like to see them as accurate as possible.

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By: NorCalBuc http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html#comment-16267 Tue, 19 Jun 2012 13:05:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=33724#comment-16267 WOW ~ I couldn’t even BEGIN to read this puppy, ‘ cause there’s a lot if info in it. And it’s 6 a.m. on the Left Coast ~ WAY too early for this amount of brain cell activity. But I can tell, Kevin (author) again surpassed your the PP high standards.

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By: KennethBaldonieri http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html#comment-16260 Tue, 19 Jun 2012 02:49:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=33724#comment-16260 Thanks.

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By: Kevin_Creagh http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html#comment-16258 Tue, 19 Jun 2012 02:42:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=33724#comment-16258 That is an orgy of a trade proposal(s).

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By: Kevin_Creagh http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html#comment-16257 Tue, 19 Jun 2012 02:41:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=33724#comment-16257 I do not have any idea what they may use. I would like to think it is a variation of this type of model, because if you look at some of the trades this past offseason (Cahill, Gonzalez, etc.) they fall in relative line with this concept.

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By: KennethBaldonieri http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html#comment-16256 Tue, 19 Jun 2012 02:34:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=33724#comment-16256 Spectacular work, Kevin. Do you have any idea what kinds of models the mlb teams would use?

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By: Nate http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/06/updating-the-trade-surplus-values.html#comment-16252 Mon, 18 Jun 2012 22:25:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=33724#comment-16252 I want Jason Heyward (I know that will never happen, but thats what I want), Ryan Lavarnway & Xander Bogaerts (for Hanny, Welker, and Polanco), and Clint Robinson (for Tabata & J. Wilson). Make my dreams come true…or tell me how insane I am.

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