Comments on: Pirates Interested in Justin Upton

By: ajleight

ajleight — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 17:34:00 +0000

Alright, I apologize. I thought he had 126 k last year. I think I might be mixing up stats with that Ruggiano for the Marlins since I had done some research on him as well. But still…my point is still the same. Bad plate discipline is a big issue when jumping from the minors to the pros. I’m not worried about his power, as I think that will mature as he does, but overall I just don’t see him being anything more than slightly above average (and only then because of the speed, which he isn’t disciplined on either)…

By: ajleight

ajleight — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 17:18:00 +0000

You need to check your stats on Marte again…he most certainly has. And if he Ks 120 times in 500 MLB at bats, then I shiver at what that means when he’s facing Halladay, Garza, Kershaw or Strasburg instead of the weak AAA pitching.

And Upton has been fine. Obviously not the start someone would hope for, but a .317 average over his least month and starting to hit for extra bases a lot more. Might have a shoulder injury, but since we’d have him for 3+ years, I’m not exactly willing to scrap the deal because he’s a little banged up. He’s elite and you know it.

By: ajleight

ajleight — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 11:59:00 +0000

And I couldn’t disagree more that these types of trades don’t go well for the team getting the star. 9.9 of every 10 prospects never pans out… not to be a starter in the pros at least… you look back at most of those 5 for 1 deals and usually only one name of the 5 prospects sticks out and that’s because he had a cup of coffee in the pros. There are exceptions to every rule, sorta like the Andrus trade referenced in the article, but most times teams are lucky if they get a single player who plays more than a season in the pros….

By: ajleight

ajleight — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 11:55:00 +0000

Yeah, he might have a shoulder injury… and his stats right now are pretty ugly when compared to what he would normally put up, but even his current stats are as good and/or better than what we’d get from a Quentin or Victorino… and seeing as over the last month Upton is back to hitting .317 with a few homers and a couple dozen RBI, I think the whole “2012 version of Upton” thing is getting overplayed. He’s an elite star who we’d be able to have through his prime. He’s as good as, if not better, than McCutchen. He’d be worth every penny of that money, just as I didn’t hear anyone complaining when we finally paid Cutch. With those two in the middle of our lineup for the next 4 years, we won’t only be good offensively, but also attract other good players to want to play here. We’d obviously be a little limited on who we could go after with our money being tied up, but we’d still be able to get the AJ type (but cheaper) each year to give our rotation a boost. We have more than enough talent in the minor leagues to give up Taillon and more and still have a solid farm. Will it be as great? Of course not… but I’ll take a proven elite superstar for 4 years of his prime over a couple of prospects, the better of which is pitching extremely mediocre at Class-A… I love Taillon, but this is a chance that doesn’t come around too often. The last one I can really remember was the Miggy deal, and even then Detroit robbed them blind.

By: john.alcorn

john.alcorn — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 16:14:00 +0000

One other thing to consider – for his career Upton at home .924 ops, on the road .744 ops.
Follow the TB model, not the Milwaukee one.

By: john.alcorn

john.alcorn — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 16:00:00 +0000

FYI its 2012, not 2011. Upton is hurt and isn’t hitting and the whole point would be to help us now. If Upton was playing like 2011 right now, I may be more interested.
You really want to trade the farm for the potential of 15 WAR at $38 million? I wager we could spend that money on a free agent or two (or trade pickup like AJ) and get 9-12 WAR plus the chance that any one of our 4 prospects we would give up could reach their potential.
These types of trades rarely seem to go well for the team getting the “star”.

By: john.alcorn

john.alcorn — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 15:54:00 +0000

Marte has never K’d more than 100 times in a season. The issue with him isn’t K rate, but rather BB rate, which has improved.
BTW, how elite has Upton been this year?

By: john.alcorn

john.alcorn — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 13:53:00 +0000

It seems that folks are not considering the money involved. $38 million over the next three years could be used to fill a lot of holes too. Its not just Upton vs prospects. Its Upton vs. prospects and $38 million in payroll that could be used elsewhere.
I’d much rather stick with Marte, Tabata, Presley, Grossman, Jones as OF’s and spend elsewhere.
Even short term, Upton’s shoulder is likely to prevent him from helping us much at all this season. If his ISO is .128 in that park it won’t be pretty here.

By: john.alcorn

john.alcorn — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 13:39:00 +0000

Tex had 1 year of control left and Atlanta certainly regrets that deal where they turned 4 very good talents into Casey Kotchman without making the playoffs.
At any rate, no on another underachieving Upton. We are not in a place, and likely never will be, where it makes sense to give up 3 top prospects.

By: louis_09

louis_09 — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 10:13:00 +0000

@burgh_fan: No, I would not make that deal.

There has to be a line drawn in the sand — an amount that is deemed to be too much.

I don’t give up both pitchers plus Marte, and if that was what it too? Upton could stay with the Dbacks and I’ll take my chances with Marte.