Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Draft Pick Signing Deadline Preview

Mark Appel has until 5 PM EST to sign with the Pittsburgh Pirates. – Image Courtesy: Pittsburgh Pirates

Almost one year ago, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed 2011 third round pick Alex Dickerson. There was nothing special about the timing of the deal. Dickerson signed for slot, and while his signing came about a month after the draft, it was normal for players to wait a few weeks before signing. Dickerson signed on July 14th. Fast forward a year later. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement moved the signing deadline up a month. Last year it was normal for most players to be unsigned at this point. This year, every player who is going to sign, will sign by 5:00 PM EST today.

The big question for the Pirates this year is whether Mark Appel will sign. The new CBA not only moved up the signing deadline, but it also limited what teams could spend. In previous years the Pirates could give Mark Appel whatever it took to get him to sign (although Appel probably wouldn’t have fallen to them under those rules). This year they have a limited amount they can spend, and if they go over that amount, they face harsh penalties, which include taxes and the loss of future draft picks.

The slot price for Appel is $2.9 M. The Pirates have an extra $609,400 to spend after saving money on other picks in the top ten rounds. They can also spend an additional $304,430 without losing any future draft picks. The most they can spend on Appel right now without losing a future pick is $3,813,830. If fourth round pick Brandon Thomas and eighth round pick Kevin Ross both sign for slot, that number goes up to $3,837,575.

We’ve heard rumors that Appel won’t sign and will return to Stanford for his senior year. If it just comes down to money, then I don’t think it benefits Appel to go back in to next year’s draft. He’s unlikely to get the same amount of money next year, and even if he gets a bit more, it’s probably not going to be worth the risk of going back to college for one more year.

There are mixed opinions about the strength of next year’s draft. Some say next year is stronger than this year. Some say it is the same. Either way, Appel fell to eighth overall in this draft, and he put up one of the best seasons in college baseball this year. Even if the draft class next year is the same quality as this year, that wouldn’t help Appel go higher next year. He will also be a college senior, giving him less leverage.

 

If Appel Doesn’t Sign

If the Pirates don’t sign Mark Appel, the following will happen:

**They will lose his $2.9 M in the 2012 bonus pool. The team would still have their extra $609,400 to spend on later round picks. They could use that money to offer second round money to someone like Walker Buehler, who was a top 50 prospect heading in to the draft.

**They will get a compensation pick in the 2013 draft. The compensation pick would be the ninth overall pick in the draft, and it would be protected, meaning if they didn’t sign that pick they’d get a compensation pick in 2014. While they’d lose the $2.9 M from the 2012 bonus pool, they’d get the money from the 9th overall pick added to their 2013 bonus pool.

**The Pirates would have to get Appel to sign a waiver, allowing them to draft him again next year.

In the short-term, the Pirates would be without a first round pick, providing a blow to the 2012 draft. They could lessen that blow by adding Buehler, giving them another second round talent. The long-term would outweigh the short-term. While the Pirates wouldn’t have a first round pick from the 2012 draft, they’d have an extra first round pick in 2013 to make up for it. So in the long-term it would even out in picks, assuming they signed the 2013 picks.

You could say that they won’t get a player as talented as Appel next year, but that’s the same thing that was said in the minutes leading in to this year’s draft. I wouldn’t rule out that possibility, as every year someone drops lower than they should have gone.

 

Middle Round Picks

The Pirates have been actively negotiating in the middle rounds the last few days. They recently signed 17th round pick Hayden Hurst. The bonus information is not yet known. The Pirates could spend up to $100,000 without going over-slot. Any amount over $100,000 would go against their bonus pool.

The Pirates have been talking with other middle round picks in the last few days, and offering a few above slot deals.

**They’re close to the asking price for 16th round pick Max Moroff, although no deal has been reached. I’m told that Moroff will go to UCF if the offer doesn’t increase.

**They negotiated with 35th round pick Jackson McClelland, and offered him an above slot deal if he would have signed Wednesday night. McClelland turned down the offer and will be heading to Pepperdine.

**The Pirates were ready to draft 27th round pick Jake Johansen in the fourth round, although he turned down the money for that pick. They took him in the 27th round in case he changed his mind.

**21st round pick Jordan Steranka has agreed to a deal. However, he’s had mono, and as a result has failed his physical twice. Since he’s a college senior, the Pirates have until a week before next year’s draft to officially sign him.

**No word on where Walker Buehler stands, although he seems to be the primary backup option if Appel doesn’t sign.

The fact that the Pirates are offering over-slot deals to later round picks raises some questions about Appel. It could mean that they don’t plan on offering Appel every last cent in their budget. Or it could mean that they know Appel isn’t likely to sign, which means they’d have to find other areas to spend that money.

 

Competitive Balance Lottery

On Saturday, MLB will hold a competitive balance lottery for the 2013 draft. The lottery will award extra picks to small market and low revenue teams. The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of 13 teams eligible for the lottery. The other teams are the Diamondbacks, Orioles, Indians, Royals, Athletics, Padres, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, and Cardinals. The chances in the lottery will be based on the previous year’s winning percentage, with the lower winning percentages giving teams a better chance at a pick.

Those teams will enter a drawing for six picks at the end of the first round. The picks will come after any free agent compensation picks. Keep in mind that the compensation picks should be lower next year, as MLB also revamped that system, making it harder for teams to get extra draft picks.

A second set of six picks will be awarded for after the second round. Any team that didn’t get a pick in the first lottery will have a chance at these picks. Also, any team that received revenue sharing money will be entered in to the pool.

If a team goes over slot enough to forfeit a future draft pick, the pick will be awarded in a third lottery along with any other forfeited picks. The only teams that would be eligible for this lottery would be teams who didn’t exceed their bonus pool.

These compensation picks can be traded, but can only be traded once. Those picks could factor in to deadline deals this year, although they won’t hold a ton of value. In the past, compensation picks have carried a value of about $2.5 M per pick.

Right now, nine teams have exceeded their bonus pools, although no team is over the five percent barrier that would result in the loss of a pick. For that reason, the Pirates might be better off going over their bonus pool up to that five percent mark. They’d have an extra $300,000 to spend, which could either seal the deal with Appel, or allow them to get one or two additional later round picks. The Pirates wouldn’t be missing out on much if they missed the third lottery. If any team did lose a pick, the Pirates would be far from a guarantee to get that pick, since two-thirds of the league is currently eligible for that lottery. It might be different if there were a lot of picks available, but with the chances of no picks being available, the Pirates would be better off investing in guaranteed prospects in the later rounds with that extra $300,000.

Tim Williams

Author: Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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  • salempirate

    Little known facts (to me at least):
    Steranka will be available almost till next season’s draft.
    Johansen fell really far, but was drafted anyway. A no lose situation. Heads up tothe Bucs there.
    Buehler is the mystery man. Hopefully, he’ll be signed, as well as Thomas and Ross.
    Appel is a prime example of why a youngster shouldn’t sign with Boras. As noted, MLB took away a lot of Boras nonsense with the new drafting measures.

    • Kevin_Creagh

      With the new slotting system, it doesn’t really make sense to hire an “advisor” at all. There are no large bonuses to negotiate, no Major League to wheedle, no perks to ask for. Unless you’re a total bumpkin, a player is wasting 5% of his signing bonus to an “advisor”. If you’re a HS player that wanted a certain amount, you either wait for your amount or go to college. It might require a little back-and-forth, that’s all.

      • Lee Young

        Kevin….totally agree….maybe in the future, players will realize this and get rid of these so called ‘advisers’.

  • John DiVito

    The competitive balance lottery is a GREAT idea! Just like giving home field advantage in the WORLD SERIES to the league that wins the ALL-STAR game. Selig is a genius…

  • john.alcorn

    If Appel fails to sign and we lose that slot money can we now only go 150k over pool (5% of the lower pool) without draft pick penalty? That would restrict us further in trying to get Buehler signed.

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      If Appel doesn’t sign, and the 4th and 8th round picks don’t sign, they’d have $159,430 to go over the pool. That would be a total of $768,830 for over-slot picks.

  • HamburgBucco

    Regardless of the question whether we sign Appel or not I am so sick of bowing to Boras and his negotiating tactics. We all knew he would drag out the talks till the final hour.
    We should have set a deadline way before before the official deadline telling Boras/Appel “This is our best offer, you better sign this now. If you don’t we’ll be gradually spending all the overslot money we have on other targets. You then get another chance one or two days before the end of the deadline to sign for slot or slightly under slot. If you don’t sign, then good luck back at Stanford! Watch out that you don’t blow out your arm with those 140 pitch counts…”
    I’d also be happy if the Buccos decided never to draft Boras clients again.

    • KingCobra

      I remember a fantastic GM who use to avoid Boras clients at all costs. He had the brains to draft Danny Moskos over Matt Weiters. He didn’t bow to the demands of Boras and by doing so he gave us a LH relief pitcher while the Orioles got a franchise catcher. Still, to this day, I am glad we didn’t bow to Boras when it came time for us to select at 4th overall in 2007. Seriously man…..

      • Lee Young

        King….totally agree….that’s what Bora$$ wants….

    • tom homolek

      Can’t avoid Boras. They have had the right approach, take the best available player available when they pick. It’s just a shame that the league put a stop to their strategy of investing in the draft.

      • piratemike

        In effect it was the players union that put an end to that, the league just went along for labor peace. The more money that goes to draftees and agents the less money goes to the union bosses.

  • http://www.facebook.com/backwardnikomahs Kirk Weaver

    Thank you for the very informative article

  • tom homolek

    The maximum he is going to get has been on the table and he knows that. If he has any intentions of signing I think he would have. I’m guessing Hayden Hurst has already reduced his available money and it will be reduced as the day goes on. The only logical conclusions are he is not signing or he is not very smart. Since he went to Stanford, I’m leaning towards he is not signing.

  • Lee Young

    Tim….If I am reading you right, there are 13 teams involved and 12 total lotto picks? Sort of like musical chairs, with one team getting screwed?

    Why do I get the feeling that the Cards and Brewers will NOT be one of those teams?

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      13 teams are involved in the first lottery.

      The 7 teams that didn’t get a pick go in to the second lottery. They are joined by any team that receives revenue sharing money.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_F5FXAMHTHF7P6BQLEONWSWQE3Q JuiceBoxBoy

    Excellent breakdown and explanation of the possibilities.

  • Dave Parker’s Unfiltered Camel

    If Appel does not sign, Boras has done a major disservice to his client. All of Appel’s leverage was this year with his ability to go back to Stanford, which is why a team would be willing to go over slot to sign him. He may not get the money of the first pick, but he still gets more than slot for where he was drafted. Next year he has no leverage. No team will have to pay over slot to sign him. In terms of investment dollars, he will have to sign next year for over $4.0 million to equal what he is giving up this year. He could end up losing app. $1.0 million by not signing. This is good business?

  • F Lang

    if we get an early lottery pick and a comp pick for Appel day one will be a very busy day for the bucs next year. One thing that bothers me with the new system is with the Bucs improving this year, we would have been picking later, so instead of having to pay 6-8 mil on the high 1st rounder we would only be dropping 1-3 mil on the #1 next year leaving far more money to spend on over slot picks in the old system if we kept the draft budget the same. It would have ruffled the feathers of the league office even more to see the Bucs going over slot on 3,4,5 more kids.

  • Ben Hohlfelder

    If Appel is signed, are there rules about him being traded this year at the deadline?

    • Kevin_Creagh

      Yes. A player can not be traded for 1 year after his SIGNING date (not the date of the draft). He can be included, but only as a “player to be named later” and those have 6 month maximums so Appel could not be included in any trade (in any fashion) until January 14th, 2013.

  • Matt

    I was under the impression that any team that goes 0-5% over slot loses their entries in ALL competitive balance lotteries, not just the one for lost draft picks as you seem to suggest.

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      No, just the picks that are given up by other teams.