Rosenthal: Victorino Could Be a Fit For Pirates; Bucs Very High On Quentin

In Ken Rosenthal’s latest Full Count, he has two updates on the Pittsburgh Pirates as we approach the trade deadline. The first update (starting at the 2:06 mark) says Shane Victorino would be a fit for the Pirates, and that they have interest in him. Rosenthal mentions the Dodgers, Reds, Yankees, and the Indians as other possible fits.

To get an idea of what Victorino would cost on the open market, here is a look at his trade value.

Shane Victorino Trade Value

Year Salary WAR FA Value Surplus Value
2012 $9,500,000 3.7 $18,700,000 $3,300,000

Victorino has had a down year, with a 1.4 WAR. His season WAR in 2009 and 2010 was 3.7 each. His 2011 WAR was 5.9. I went a little on the optimistic side, giving him the value of his 3.7 WAR level, which gives him the value of the 2009/2010 version, rather than the version we’ve seen in 2012.

Since there are no compensation picks for rental players, Victorino’s value takes a hit. Because of his high salary compared to his production, Victorino is only worth $3.3 M as a deadline deal. That wouldn’t be much, amounting to two Grade C prospects. This could be a case where teams have to pay more due to a seller’s market, and the name value of the player inflating Victorino’s price. But the loss of the compensation picks lowers the price by $5 M, which would have been the equivalent of a top 76-100 pitcher, or a Grade B pitcher and a Grade C prospect.

Rosenthal also says the Pirates are very high on Carlos Quentin, but the price is steep. Here is a look at Quentin’s value.

Carlos Quentin Trade Value

Year Salary WAR FA Value Surplus Value
2012 $7,025,000 4.0 $20,200,000 $4,700,000

Quentin has a 1.7 WAR so far this year. Again, I went optimistic and put him as a 4.0 WAR player. His 1.7 at this point amounts to a 3.4 on the year, although he did miss some time in the first half, which is why I bumped it up.

Quentin is a similar situation as Victorino, although he’s been productive this year, so his price would be a bit higher. However, he’s a rental, and there are no compensation picks, so his value will be lower this year than it normally would have been. Rosenthal mentions the price for Quentin is steep. I’m not sure what that means, but it makes sense considering how many teams are looking for offense and how few sellers there are. What he’s worth is a little less than a Grade B hitter, which would be someone like Gregory Polanco or Robbie Grossman.

Both of these players would likely cost prospects, and the price could go beyond what the player is worth due to the name values and the seller’s market. But the lack of compensation picks will drive prices down for each player, and while both players have name value, they’re both just two month rentals, which should limit their overall value.

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Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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Pirates Interested in Justin Upton

  • James S

    If I can have either of those guys, I take Victorino easily. Good veteran stick and knows how to win.

  • Craig

    Tim… Wouldn’t acquiring a guy with control be more worth it? Who do you think would hang up first: Hanson, Polanco, Grossman and Cain for J. Upton? Would you give up that much? Am I over-valuing our guys?

    • http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

      I wouldn’t give up that much. It’s not so much that Upton isn’t worth it. That’s just not the type of deal the Pirates need to be making.

      • emjayinTN

        Tim: Agree 100% – I think Upton is not worth the aggravation to a team where everybody seems to get along. And, WADR Victorino is a leadoff guy but is hitting .220 against RHP’s this year, and Quentin will subtract AB’s from Jones/McGehee? And he will subtract defensively – nope, play the hand, keep your prospects, and keep building.

  • http://www.facebook.com/timpj5 Tim Fort

    I like Willingham as an option in the OF but we need to get another SP. If we could get Dempster or Garza, I’d be happy. Just don’t trust Correia or Bedard… Maybe now is the time to bring up Owens or Locke and see what they can do.

  • http://twitter.com/jlease717 John Lease

    If they offer either guy arbitration, like they did Lee, don’t they become compensation picks if someone else takes them? I don’t think either is ready for retirement.

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