Comments on: Breaking Down the Justin Upton Trade to the Braves http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Fri, 25 Jul 2014 15:59:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.1 By: Dean Manifest http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html#comment-24169 Mon, 28 Jan 2013 13:23:37 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=46195#comment-24169 Using definitive statements like “Arizona got more value in the trade” and “Delgado has just as much value as Upton”, as if theyre facts just like “Prado can pay multiple positions” or “Upton is still owed $38 million”, bugs me a little bit. Look at all the variables you have to take a stab at, and that’s before getting into the formula

We all acknowledge that player evaluation methodology was pretty unsophisticated for most of baseball’s history. But reading articles today you’d think we’ve done a complete 180 and now have an absolute bead on how to valuate these guys.

This isn’t unique to this site or writer by any stretch. I’d like to see the entire community demonstrate a little more awareness that stats like WAR and ZiPS are simply intermediaries in the long journey that began with “LOL Batting Average” and doesn’t have a end point (as opposed to talking like we’ve reached the saber metric promised land and can begin speaking in absolutes). I’m sure this writer, and the majority of the individuals involved in baseball analytics realize this, but that doesn’t come across very often when you read most sites.

]]>
By: emjayinTN http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html#comment-24139 Sat, 26 Jan 2013 12:12:31 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=46195#comment-24139 GH: Living in the South, I got to see a lot of Martin Prado and he is a strong player and a true professional. He was an All Star caliber 2B except they traded for Uggla and Prado had to find another position (Chipper was at 3B). He has an excellent bat, hits for average, very dependable OBP, medium power, and will be a better power hitter in Arizona. Upton has potential, but at 24 making $10 mil in 2013 and $14 mil in 2014 and 2015, his salary reflects as better than his best year, which happened 2 years ago. Prado will be the 3B at Arizona, and he also played at 2B, SS, and LF last year in Atlanta.

]]>
By: Steve Zielinski http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html#comment-24091 Thu, 24 Jan 2013 22:35:20 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=46195#comment-24091 Given Upton’s age, pedigree, recent injury history and the toxic environment he just left behind him and given Prado’s contract soon-to-expire contract and the improbability of the prospects traded to the Dbacks ever producing in the majors, I’d say this was not a trade of equal value between these two teams. Of course, Upton needs to become once more the star player he was two years ago and the player observers expected him to be. Getting 6 wins from one player is far more significant that getting 6 wins from 6 players. That 6-win player is a major component of a championship contender. The 6 1-win players elevate a team from a replacement level to a near-to-replacement level.

]]>
By: George Hareras http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html#comment-24090 Thu, 24 Jan 2013 21:48:58 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=46195#comment-24090 I’m interested in the value you have on Prado. I feel that his WAR is higher due to his ability to play multiple OF positions as well as 3B. In Arizona he will be exclusively the 3B there. Will that change his perceived WAR value since he wont be playing OF now?

]]>
By: Tim Williams http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html#comment-24087 Thu, 24 Jan 2013 18:23:24 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=46195#comment-24087 It’s always difficult in situations like this. Delgado had a 1.0 WAR in half a season, so I gave him a 2.0 WAR value.

The value of 26-50 pitching prospects is lower because they’re not guaranteed. Prospects can still fail, even with a high rating.

What I’m doing here is basically guaranteeing that Delgado has a 2.0 WAR per year over the next six years. That’s something you don’t have with prospects who are graded in the top 100, or Grade B prospects.

That might not be right. You could probably argue Delgado either way. It’s one of those things where he’s in between prospect status and established major league status, which puts his value up in the air.

As for the Grade B values, Sickels had them both Grade B- prospects. I always use Victor Wang’s values of Grade B prospects. Here is a good chart for that:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/3/777412/al-west-farm-system-values

Sickels must have updated the list after I linked to it.

]]>
By: Schide http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html#comment-24086 Thu, 24 Jan 2013 18:16:50 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=46195#comment-24086 I’m not sure I understand some of the valuation here. According you your trade value post, Delgado as a top 26-50 pitching prospect would have been worth about $14.7M before the year. But then since he pitched half a year at 1 WAR he gets bumped all the way up to $40M? I just don’t buy that. I don’t think you can assume that much WAR for all six years based on just one half year of average performance. It just doesn’t jive with me. Sickels said in his post about this trade that if Delgado were still a prospect he’d give him a B grade, which would still be in that $15M range. I’d be willing to give him more value for his ML performance, but not quite that much.

Also, Ahmed and Spruill are both B- prospects, although Ahmed is ranked lower on prospect lists than Spruill. I would like to know how exactly you calculated their values since the value post never delved beyond the top 100 prospect values. Do you acually have those potential values listed somewhere or do you just calculate them based on some sliding scale? Thanks.

One more small thing, Sickels already edited his Braves Prospects list to remove the traded prospects, so the link you have that goes there is now kind of useless since the prospects here aren’t even on that page anymore.

]]>
By: mysonisnamedafterRoberto http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html#comment-24085 Thu, 24 Jan 2013 18:06:55 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=46195#comment-24085 I wonder if the Marlin haven’t dealt Staton this time next year, will his asking price change? Next year he will be very similar to Upton. 3 year left under control and a team the probably will finish at or near the bottom of their division. What the Marlin want in return, right now, has to be hefty. But with their current rotation full of young arms they are not playing for now, but 4 to 5 years down the road. That would mean having to resign Staton.
Every year they don’t trade him they lose that much more value. Last year the talk around Upton, was higher than what they got. It not any impressive trade from the state point of the d’backs?

]]>
By: whiteAngus http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html#comment-24082 Thu, 24 Jan 2013 17:48:22 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=46195#comment-24082 are we talking about Bauer or Upton?
.
anyway, its not a harsh criticism. it was a guestimation. and for the kind of money that Upton would demand, a reasonable one.

]]>
By: mike_f http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html#comment-24081 Thu, 24 Jan 2013 17:43:15 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=46195#comment-24081 It looks to me like the Pirates’ equivalent of the package that Arizona received would be Neil Walker, Kyle McPherson, Gift Ngoepe, Clay Holmes, and a throw-in. Too steep of a price for Upton, I think.

]]>
By: Ian Rothermund http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/breaking-down-the-justin-upton-trade-to-the-braves.html#comment-24080 Thu, 24 Jan 2013 17:30:47 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=46195#comment-24080 Yeah, that’s kind of harsh criticism for a player so young that spent an entire year in a situation where the team was constantly releasing information about how disappointed they were in him and how badly they wished someone would take him off their hands.

]]>