Oddly enough, Napoli’s splits as a RH are as high or higher against RHPs as most LH hitters, including the guys we would have in platoon-type roles at 1B (Jones) and at C (McKenry). He is, effectively, and ideal hitter lefty platoon against RHPs, who just happens to hit right-handed (Check out his splits the last two seasons – crazy, if he can come close to maintaining those). He can play 75% at 1B, and take a portion of ABs against righties at C.

Just a thought, unless you think he’s still going to pull down north of $10 mil/yr on a shorter term.

Not sure what’s reasonable from Sox for Jones – SS Iglesias? P Henry Owen? SS Deven Merrero? 2B Brock Holt? (wanted to make sure you were still listening….:-).

Is P Daniel Bard due? How about John Lackey and a lot of cash coming back? (his Bill James projections look (suspiciously) very good for next year – as do Bard’s – bet Sox would seize opportunity to kick in and move on (and the beer and chicken are cheaper in Pittsburgh, too.)

Also, I never thought that Sands and Robinson guaranteed a trade. As I mentioned in that article above, they’ve both got options, so the Pirates could keep everyone.

A few weeks ago we obviously didn’t have the Cafardo news that came out yesterday. That’s going to change anyone’s view on the probability of Jones being traded. After reading that I went back and searched all of the previous GFJ rumors. Each time the story was the same: the Pirates had a high asking price and the other teams weren’t paying it.

For some more reference on my previous thoughts on Jones, I said on Twitter on 12/27 (the same day as that article) that I felt there was a 60/40 chance of Jones being traded (https://twitter.com/timwilliamsP2/status/284477995610169344). I’d say the reminder from Cafardo has shifted that to somewhere in the 30/70 range. Not only is that a reminder of the high value on Jones, it also shows that Boston won’t be in on Jones, which removes one team that matched up well for his services.

So again, not a black and white issue. Just shades of gray probabilities based on what information is available at the time.

And NH has denied every aspect of that T Walker/Jones trade rumor.

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Contingency plans like Sands and Robinson were brought in, which led many to believe Jones was on his way out. I think Tim is now re-reading the tea leaves and seeing that the chance of Jones being traded is much, much smaller than in December.

Personally, I put his trade chances at 15% throughout the off-season as that’s too much power to give up for a team that desperately needs to break .500 this year for all parties’ sakes.

“I said earlier in the off-season that I would be surprised if Joel Hanrahan was on the team on Opening Day. On a similar note, I wouldn’t be surprised if Garrett Jones was on the team on Opening Day.”

Here’s what you wrote earllier:

” I don’t think it’s as inevitable as a Hanrahan trade, but I’d be surprised if the Pirates kept Jones.” (http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/12/first-pitch-what-is-the-next-move-for-the-pirates.html).

Unless my comprehension is poor, you’ve taken the opposite stance with this post compared to where you were in the aftermath of the Hammer deal. Is that because two weeks have passed and you have a better read on the situation?