Comments on: First Pitch: Is Jeff Karstens Over-Rated or Under-Rated? http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-is-jeff-karstens-over-rated-or-under-rated.html Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Tue, 16 Sep 2014 16:50:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.2 By: Kevin Creagh http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-is-jeff-karstens-over-rated-or-under-rated.html#comment-23982 Fri, 18 Jan 2013 12:46:23 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45880#comment-23982 At Piratefest, NH said they tried to work out a deal with Karstens ahead of the non-tender deadline. I’m presuming that the deal during the pre-non-tender deadline was this deal that you are looking at right now — a base salary with incentives.

Karstens turned it down in November, was non-tendered, realized the market wasn’t that great for him, and came back. The Pirates don’t have 100% full faith and credit that Karstens can pitch a whole season — thus the incentives.

I’m not thrilled that Karstens is back, as I think he is not dependable and relies on a very fine margin of error, but an incentive based deal for him is good.

]]>
By: Y2JGQ2 http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-is-jeff-karstens-over-rated-or-under-rated.html#comment-23979 Fri, 18 Jan 2013 03:53:13 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45880#comment-23979 Tim- What was Jeff’s WAR in 2011 when he managed to stay healthy for the entire year? Just curious.

a 1.7 WAR in 90 innings shows a lot of upside to me. It shows, even if Jeff is injured a large part of the year, that he can still have a positive impact when he IS on the field. I think as a #4 starter, he could easily post a 3.0 WAR this year for 2.5m. That would be a steal, and then my guess is he’d get a 3 year 15million contract for that somewhere

]]>
By: Ecbucs http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-is-jeff-karstens-over-rated-or-under-rated.html#comment-23978 Fri, 18 Jan 2013 03:31:24 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45880#comment-23978 It still bugs me that the Pirates budget is so tight that they had to take the chance that Karstens could go elsewhere. If Karstens meets his incentives he will not get much less than he would have thru arbitration so the Bucs may not even save much money (but they will know that he performed well).

I just don’t understand how the team’s budget can be this tight year after year yet they still end up with one of lowest payrolls in game (bottom 5). Especially for 2013, after the past two years the team should be making a strong effort to contend yet it appears it wants to nickel and dime most players but it is going to be spending big money on its catcher and shortstop when neither of whom is likely to be much above average even if they have better seasons than they did in 2012.

]]>
By: Happydude1 http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-is-jeff-karstens-over-rated-or-under-rated.html#comment-23963 Thu, 17 Jan 2013 15:05:16 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45880#comment-23963 I guess consistency/dependability pays – at least in Correia’s case – even if that consistency is at or below replacement level.

]]>
By: Lee Young http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-is-jeff-karstens-over-rated-or-under-rated.html#comment-23961 Thu, 17 Jan 2013 14:58:44 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45880#comment-23961 Correia takes the ball every 5 days. He is durable. JK isn’t.

Managers want ‘avail’ability, not just ‘ability’.

That is why KC gets the big bucks and JK doesn’t.

]]>
By: wkkortas http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-is-jeff-karstens-over-rated-or-under-rated.html#comment-23960 Thu, 17 Jan 2013 14:41:01 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45880#comment-23960 I think the notion of Karstens being under-valued is spot-on, maybe because his negatives are easy to focus on–the lack of overpowering stuff, the health concerns. the lack of upside (which I think partly explains why Morton was tendered and Karstens was not.) Still, as you point out, he provides good bang for the buck; he’s one of those guys who seem like they’re a dime a dozen until you don’t have him around when you need him.

]]>
By: impliedi http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-is-jeff-karstens-over-rated-or-under-rated.html#comment-23959 Thu, 17 Jan 2013 12:36:04 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45880#comment-23959 I should add that I think that fans tend to overvalue their own players AND, at the same time (in an odd twist), overemphasize their own players’ weaknesses.

]]>
By: impliedi http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-is-jeff-karstens-over-rated-or-under-rated.html#comment-23958 Thu, 17 Jan 2013 12:31:52 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45880#comment-23958 Good article, Tim.

I tend to think that fans (and even writers) tend to overvalue most of their team’s players. I assume that’s because they have an affinity for many of them, but also because fans/writers seem to prefer a known quantity to an unknown. With Karstens, it’s pretty obvious what you’re going to get. With Bedard or Burnett or even Russell Martin, a lot of fans didn’t really know what to expect, so often they’d rather have a middle-of-the-road talent that they already know over the possibility of a new guy coming that has the possibility of being much more than that.

I’m wondering if, whether it’s the injuries or the talent or whatever, that perhaps other teams didn’t think of Karstens as a starter. Maybe they believed he is best suited for the role that the Pirates have tried valiantly to keep him in, long man/spot starter. And that a person in that role wasn’t worth $3-4m+. Just a guess, I could be way off.

Lastly, I always try to look at these things from the opposite perspective to get my rose-colored fan glasses off for a second.

When some people were up in arms about not taking the Maholm $9m option or non-tendering Karstens, I looked at it this way: if Paul Maholm were on another team instead of with the Pirates and the Pirates were looking at signing him to a one-year, $9m contract, would that be a good move? What would the fan reaction be? How would the people who were upset with the move react to a signing like this?

Same with Karstens. If he had been with another team, and had had the exact same career up to this point and the Pirates signed him to a 1-year, $4m contract, I think a lot of the same people who were upset about the non-tendering, would have been moaning about the Pirates “wasting” 4 million on a soft-tossing, injury-prone guy who can’t hold a job in a rotation.

]]>
By: emjayinTN http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-is-jeff-karstens-over-rated-or-under-rated.html#comment-23957 Thu, 17 Jan 2013 11:24:18 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45880#comment-23957 Tim: I like Jeff Karstens as a Pirate because he is a solid contributor in the dugout, the clubhouse, and the community. Off of 2011 he looked like a guy moving up, and that all took a big hit last year. He is probably being paid what he is worth, and the market made that point very clear. Place me in the group that thinks this was the year to go in with AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Locke, and either Justin Wilson or Chris Leroux, with McPherson being a dark horse. We have a severe case of constipation with moving pitchers into the majors. Jeff Locke has gotten his “big” opportunity in 2011 and 2012 after he had already thrown 140 IP one year and 150+ the other year at AAA. I think the Pirates are very capable of playing .500+ ball in 2013, and this is the year to take a gamble on some of these yound starting pitchers, and give them a shot when they are at their strongest point, not at their weakest points.

]]>