First Pitch

First Pitch: Projecting 81-84 Wins for the 2013 Pirates Using ZiPS

First Pitch: Projecting 81-84 Wins for the 2013 Pirates Using ZiPS

Today the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates ZiPS projections were released on FanGraphs. The projections included WAR estimates for every player. It's difficult to get a season projection out of these results. The playing time for each player isn't exactly accurate. For example, Clint Barmes, Chase d'Arnaud, Josh Harrison, and Jordy Mercer are all projected for 475+ plate appearances. Based on last year's totals, those guys might combine for 900 plate appearances, with half coming from Barmes and the other half coming as a combo from the other guys. Once we adjust the playing time for Mercer, d'Arnaud, and Harrison, we also have to adjust the WAR.

I wanted to get an estimate of the 2013 record using the ZiPS projections. This estimate is based on the projected Opening Day roster, and isn't exactly set in stone. As you can see in the title, the projection I got was 81-84 wins. The difference depends on whether the Pirates sign Francisco Liriano (83), Shaun Marcum (84), or neither (81). Below i...

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Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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