Comments on: First Pitch: Projecting 81-84 Wins for the 2013 Pirates Using ZiPS http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Mon, 14 Apr 2014 21:09:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.2 By: Ecbucs http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html#comment-23943 Wed, 16 Jan 2013 15:53:39 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45772#comment-23943 so zips is basically projecting that every team in the Division will finish better than 500. The Cubs are at 30 compared to the Bucs 31 so they would be in the 80-82 range.

The Bucs and Cubbies battling it out for last place. Hopefully the Brewers and Cubs will both underperform the projections and Bucs will over perform.

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By: Happydude1 http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html#comment-23929 Tue, 15 Jan 2013 18:58:22 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45772#comment-23929 And I can’t imagine he’d ever be a positive contributor on the basepaths.

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By: leadoff http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html#comment-23921 Tue, 15 Jan 2013 16:37:17 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45772#comment-23921 I agree with you that his defense at 1st is at best poor, why they can’t teach him to throw the ball to 2nd base is beyond me, not that throwing is his only defensive problem, but throwing is a big one to me. I don’t really like the UZR stats, so without them IMO, Jones is a decent right fielder.

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By: Tim Williams http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html#comment-23919 Tue, 15 Jan 2013 16:07:10 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45772#comment-23919 Jones hit 27 homers last year and had a career year and he was only a 1.9 WAR. He doesn’t bring any defensive value at first, which hurts his overall numbers.

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By: leadoff http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html#comment-23917 Tue, 15 Jan 2013 15:54:47 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45772#comment-23917 I think the WAR is way to low for 1st base, I think Jones production should have put him at least at a 2.5 WAR, hard to find a lot of guys that hit 25 HRs in a year these days. The Pitching IMO is the big question mark, but I think it is in a better place right now than it was last year at this time, I think Rodriguez is a huge upgrade over Bedard and I think McFear and Locke are better prepared to make the team this year and give the Bucs the depth they did not have last year.
I do agree however that the Pirates are probably an 81 – 84 win team as constructed this year.

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By: Dean Manifest http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html#comment-23910 Tue, 15 Jan 2013 14:33:09 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45772#comment-23910 The most encouraging thing about a .500 projection is that there aren’t too many players on the team without upside. Marte, Snider, Tabata, Presley, Sands all have upside. Not only does this make it more likely that we’ll have a hot player come June, but it allows us to bench or demote those who completely collapse.

There are plenty of years that we’ve said “if ____ AND ____ AND ____ break out we could be good.” This year we’re saying, “if ____ OR ____ breaks out and ____, ____ OR ____ breaks out, we could be good.” Big difference. If you line up enough guys with a 25% shot at a breakthrough, it becomes likely that you’ll at least hit one.

And it’s only going to get better moving forward. This time next year Cole should be in the rotation, and we’re going to be talking about “if Taillon comes up in June.” A year or two later we’ll be talking about Heredia. Or Bell. Or Hansen. Or Polanco.

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By: Tim Williams http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html#comment-23902 Tue, 15 Jan 2013 07:17:16 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45772#comment-23902 The replacement team WAR doesn’t have much to do with this. I’m using ZiPS for the individual player projections. I’d use the 48 win baseline no matter what projection system was providing the player results. That number is pretty much the midpoint of all the studies on the subject, and is the most common figure you see.

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By: Tim Williams http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html#comment-23901 Tue, 15 Jan 2013 07:08:12 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45772#comment-23901 Cole is already included here.

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By: C Shint http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html#comment-23900 Tue, 15 Jan 2013 06:10:57 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45772#comment-23900 Good read. Really like where we are at. Adding Liriano or Marcum as you said puts us at a projection of 83-84 wins. G Cole could add 1-2 wins too

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By: Keenan Funk http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/01/first-pitch-the-zips-projections-project-80-83-wins-for-the-2013-pirates.html#comment-23899 Tue, 15 Jan 2013 05:50:21 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=45772#comment-23899 If you’re going to use ZIPS you might as well use the baseline that Mr. Szymborski uses, which is 45-46 WAR, as he stated today in his Fangraphs chat. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-11413/

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