Comments on: Pittsburgh Pirates 2013 ZiPS Projections Released

By: Dean Manifest

Dean Manifest — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 13:17:16 +0000

Ok, thanks.

So you’re saying that the ZiPS projected IP for each Prates pitcher doesn’t add up to (approximately) 1458 innings?

By: Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 21:10:16 +0000

Here’s the link to the WAR glossary on Fangraphs site:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-four/

In it, you can read comments from Dave Cameron and tangotiger for the methodology of 48 wins for a replacement team.

Here’s Tangotigers:
I use roughly:
2.25 wins per 700 PA (non-pitchers) above replacement for the average nonpitcher, of which there are 8.65 per team
+.11 wins per 9 starter innings, for the average starter (65% of innings)
+.05 wins per 9 relief innings, for the average reliever (35% of innings)

Add it up: 2.25 * 8.65 + .11*162*.65 + .05*162*.35 = 34 WAR

Since the average team has 81 wins, then the replacement level would be 34 below that, or 47 wins, for a win% of .290.

(Because wins are not totally linear, an actual such replacement team will win closer to .300.)

By: jalcorn

jalcorn — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 19:29:03 +0000

He also added that Marcum would project as a ERA+ of 111 at PNC, very good. I think Liriano was 108 (I think) also good.

By: jalcorn

jalcorn — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 19:22:42 +0000

Dan said today in his chat that fangraphs WAR uses about 45 wins, ZiPS uses 45-46, Baseball Reference close to 50.

By: Tim Williams

Tim Williams — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 18:58:16 +0000

I might take a stab at the projected W/L record in tonight’s First Pitch.

By: Kevin Creagh

Kevin Creagh — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 18:49:49 +0000

The baseline that I have seen reported on Fangraphs and other sites is that a team of replacement-level players would have a .300 winning percentage (or roughly 48 wins).

By: Tim Williams

Tim Williams — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 18:34:39 +0000

It would be hard to say. The playing time on ZiPS isn’t accurate for all players. You’d have to pick and choose which players would be playing to get a projected W/L.

For example, Gerrit Cole is projected for 133.1 innings. By comparison (and coincidentally) A.J. Burnett had 133.1 innings from June 22nd to the end of the year. I’m guessing Cole would arrive by that point, but I don’t know how many 8-9 inning games he’d be pitching. Even if he did have that amount, you’d have to project which starter would see a loss in innings once he arrived.

It’s situations like that which you’d have to figure for every position. If you could get an estimate for each position, you could get a projected W/L record. But that would be very subjective.

By: Dean Manifest

Dean Manifest — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 18:20:01 +0000

Regarding WAR, if McCutchen is projected for 5.3, Walker 2.9, Pedro, 2.7, Marte 2.6, etc….that should all add up to a projected win-loss record, right?

What would the projected record be for a team of replacement level players?