So you’re saying that the ZiPS projected IP for each Prates pitcher doesn’t add up to (approximately) 1458 innings?

]]>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-four/

In it, you can read comments from Dave Cameron and tangotiger for the methodology of 48 wins for a replacement team.

Here’s Tangotigers:

I use roughly:

2.25 wins per 700 PA (non-pitchers) above replacement for the average nonpitcher, of which there are 8.65 per team

+.11 wins per 9 starter innings, for the average starter (65% of innings)

+.05 wins per 9 relief innings, for the average reliever (35% of innings)

Add it up: 2.25 * 8.65 + .11*162*.65 + .05*162*.35 = 34 WAR

Since the average team has 81 wins, then the replacement level would be 34 below that, or 47 wins, for a win% of .290.

(Because wins are not totally linear, an actual such replacement team will win closer to .300.)

]]>For example, Gerrit Cole is projected for 133.1 innings. By comparison (and coincidentally) A.J. Burnett had 133.1 innings from June 22nd to the end of the year. I’m guessing Cole would arrive by that point, but I don’t know how many 8-9 inning games he’d be pitching. Even if he did have that amount, you’d have to project which starter would see a loss in innings once he arrived.

It’s situations like that which you’d have to figure for every position. If you could get an estimate for each position, you could get a projected W/L record. But that would be very subjective.

]]>What would the projected record be for a team of replacement level players?

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