Comments on: Baseball Prospectus Predicts 79 Wins For the Pirates

By: whiteAngus

whiteAngus — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 15:34:03 +0000

the pitching is, and always will be, the key to improvement. hopefully it stays healthy enough this year to get over the 20 year hump.
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normally i do not predict wins/losses. i have not idea what is going to happen this season. i have noticed, however, that the team has played much better when it loses the last 2 seasons than they did the previous 2 seasons, so that shows me more competitive players/talent than before.
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but since we’re predicting wins, im going to go with 49. Yes, it’s low, but im 99% sure we’ll hit that goal so i wont be as disappointed as other “experts”.

By: Ian Rothermund

Ian Rothermund — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 17:16:38 +0000

I find it really difficult to agree with a lot of the projections like this. Not that this couldn’t be in the neighborhood of reason. It just really fails to acknowledge the true impact of unproven, younger players and the unexpected decline of older players.

By: NorCal Buc

NorCal Buc — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 13:58:48 +0000

Agreed, whiteAngus. So we won ’79 last year. Questions about 2013 center around improvement.

Is our pitching improved with a full year of AJ and Wandy, rather than Correia and Bedard? Are McDonald and Karstens better, with more experience, than last year?

Do we get more production form left field and right field, with a full year of Marte and Snider/Sands compared to Presley and Tabata of last year?

Are we improved behind the dish, with Martin and a more seasoned McHenry, than with Barajas.

Does Pedro imrove? Barmas?

I see greater potential for improvement, and more wins, than regression. Especially important is improvement with the starting pitching, and production from the OF and at C.

How many more wins. I’d guess 8 more wins, or 87 total.

By: whiteAngus

whiteAngus — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 13:07:45 +0000

“experts” predicted that the pirates would win less than 60 games in 2011 and the pirates won 72. the same “experts” predicted around 70 wins in 2012 and the pirates came within a few stupid Hurdle decisions of having a winning season.
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these “experts” can continue to predict because its fun proving these people wrong.
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and by “experts”, i mean “pretty much everybody who predicts anything”.

By: Richard Ya'Zhynka

Richard Ya'Zhynka — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 11:58:35 +0000

I’ve always felt that the PECOTA projections for individual players were quite conservative. I noticed the same as you did about the Pirate player projections – good pitching, below average hitting. They’ve got Liriano, Rodriguez, and McDonald with ERAs under 4.00 and Burnett just over 4.00.

By: phartman

phartman — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 11:24:27 +0000

Tim,

You’re usually so solid on most everything Pirates? Making the jump to contender isn’t that far?

Let’s be realistic. No, the jump isn’t that far, but for the sorry Pirates organization, it might as well be to the Moon!

First of all, the other four teams (no Astros to kick around anymore) are all better! Second, all four teams have ramped up over the Winter buying players and bringing up real prospects. The Pirates have one, maybe, Garritt Cole, who “might” be up later in the season. Unless he’s Tom Seaver II, he won’t turn this franchise into a contender.

Third, all four Central Division teams have money at their disposal, something Bob Nutting doesn’t have and/or won’t release? Pittsburgh continues to be conservative (read cheap) while the Cubs spend, the Cardinals know where to spend, ditto the Brewers and Cincy is simply the best of the group at doing all of that and more.

So long as the other four teams outperform in the draft and in exchanging players, the Pirates will finish last, 79 wins or no 79 wins. We can thank Bob Nutting for giving us a second division executive team in Coonelly and Huntington to accompany his penury.

Therefore, first place and contention in the Central for the Pirates might as well be playing their home games on the moon! Nothing is going to happen until this team begins adding REAL players to their lineup.

So far they have one, McCutcheon.

By: Stephen Brooks

Stephen Brooks — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 00:03:33 +0000

For the individual player projections – Liriano gets a huge boost moving to the NL and in front of the Bucs defense. The hitters don’t get much love – basically everyone other than Cutch and Barmes is pegged for an OPS in the low 700s. And BP doesn’t like the pen much either.

PECOTA (BP’s projection algorithm) is inherently conservative, and I do think it undersells the Bucs’ upside, given its youth. This is still a very young team that could be hiding a couple of breakout candidates. I think as constructed this is closer to an 84 win team.