Comments on: First Pitch: Could the Pirates be 31-23 at the End of May? http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Sun, 07 Sep 2014 13:08:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.2 By: Ecbucs http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html#comment-27089 Tue, 07 May 2013 19:14:19 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=52672#comment-27089 It should be easy part of schedule and Bucs should come out ahead in the standings. As others have said, it is never easy for Bucs.

I think one of things that happen is that every team the Bucs play still looks at them as a team they can beat (not just a game here or there but win the series). that isn’t going to change unless the team is able to go on a roll and keep it up for a season. This team has more potential than I thought it would in spring training and I’m glad to see that. Its had a good start and now needs to keep winning.

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By: jalcorn http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html#comment-27087 Tue, 07 May 2013 19:08:13 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=52672#comment-27087 LOL, yeah some of those doubting the Pirates are actual experts in one way or another. Most of the people writing/talking in town are “experts”.

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By: Tim Williams http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html#comment-27084 Tue, 07 May 2013 18:53:04 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=52672#comment-27084 I talked about pet peeves yesterday with Lee. My biggest one is “experts” (putting quotes around the word experts).

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By: Tim Williams http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html#comment-27083 Tue, 07 May 2013 18:50:37 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=52672#comment-27083 I’m just giving some background on the approach.

It seems like if someone from the outside, like Buster Olney, said something like this, the view would be different. If a Pirates writer says “the team could have a good month”, it’s viewed with skepticism because it comes from within. If someone on the outside says it, then it seems to remove that “everything will go wrong” mentality.

I try to look at things as people on the outside would. So when I’m writing something, it’s just analyzing what I see from the team, while removing the hometown bias.

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By: jalcorn http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html#comment-27082 Tue, 07 May 2013 18:47:32 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=52672#comment-27082 You also have to concede that Grilli, Melancon, and Wilson will be giving up more runs in the future. AJ and Wandy too are outperforming there peripherals.

This is really neither here nor there, we both want the team to win in bunches and we both expect them to surprise the “experts”.

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By: jalcorn http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html#comment-27081 Tue, 07 May 2013 18:45:42 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=52672#comment-27081 I don’t mean to criticize your overall approach Tim, just this specific instance.

I was referring to Baseball Prospectus 2nd and 3rd order wins which currently has the Pirates in last place in the central. That and our team FG WAR wins which do not mach up with our record well. I am well aware that pythagorean record is overly simplistic.

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By: jg941 http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html#comment-27076 Tue, 07 May 2013 17:41:31 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=52672#comment-27076 I’d also add, oh, BTW, our projected pitchers too.

I might like our chances against the Mariners with Harang pitching, but maybe not so much if our guy is JMac.

And I like King Felix’s chances slightly less if he’s going against AJ.

Who knows – maybe just stick with Tim’s approach, forget about possible matchups and enjoy our 8 games over .500 on June 1st. :-)

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By: jg941 http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html#comment-27074 Tue, 07 May 2013 17:32:46 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=52672#comment-27074 Yeah, it may be too far out with too many variables, but it would interesting to try to project the rest of May by doing two things:

Try to project ahead (kinda like Tim does with all of the Pirates org teams) as to who is the likely opposing pitcher we would face, and then look at those teams’ records when that pitcher is pitching (I.e. the King Felix factor).

Obviously you can’t rely on every pitcher hitting the spot you projected over 25 days – just would be an interesting exercise to see how often you might actually cross paths with the ace(s) on a substandard team

And, no, I’m not volunteering to do that :-)

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By: leadoff http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html#comment-27070 Tue, 07 May 2013 16:52:50 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=52672#comment-27070 I am a simple person and just cut to the chase. Still I like the column because the radio and TV people in Pittsburgh live and die by whether the next opponent stinks or is great when making comments about who the pro teams in Pittsburgh should beat or lose to. I always get a chuckle out of it. The 71 Pirates had no chance against the Birds with the Birds sporting all those 20 game winners, how did that turn out?

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By: Tim Williams http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/first-pitch-could-the-pirates-be-31-23-at-the-end-of-may.html#comment-27065 Tue, 07 May 2013 16:19:11 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=52672#comment-27065 He seems to be doing his best Adam LaRoche impersonation.

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