Comments on: First Pitch: Jeanmar Gomez is the New Kevin Correia Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Sun, 16 Nov 2014 07:06:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: Marco Rincones Thu, 30 May 2013 14:31:08 +0000 Makes you wonder how Cleveland feels right now when they look at how well J Gomez is hurling. The Pirates traded who to get Gomez in return?

By: BallaBri133 Wed, 29 May 2013 23:47:45 +0000 Blind certainty is the enemy reason and intellectual discussion. Fan complacency is one of the largest issues with the worst sports organization of the last TWO decades. Your savior made a foolish statement and he needed rebuked.

By: emjayinTN Wed, 29 May 2013 20:58:57 +0000 Extrapolation of results at one level to another level is not a given in MLB. And have you considered that he is the #12 MLB Prospect right now and we either promote him soon or risk the dreaded “did we make a mistake” by drafting him questions? He will be in the ‘burgh soon.

By: leadoff Wed, 29 May 2013 19:03:10 +0000 The Corriea removal was a colossal mistake last year. Removing Gomez now would be another colossal mistake, you don’t jump ship unless the emergency has actually arrived. Projections based on a couple of stats do not tell you enough about what is going to happen to Gomez in the future. Those stats are made from man made results as well as Gomez actual results.
As far as the big park, how many balls even came near the wall when Gomez was pitching, seems to me he has pitched in some homer friendly parks this year and done alright.
Here are the weak teams that Gomez has been on the mound against to be fair all these teams don’t have winning records.
1. D-Backs
2. Reds
3. Braves
4. Cards
5. Brewers
6. Mariners
7. Mets
8. Astros
9. Cubs
10. Tigers
That is 11 runs in 40 innings of pitching
The team that hit him the most was the Astros.
He can’t get on the field against tougher competition.
The Reds and Cards have the best records in baseball and the Tigers have the best hitting team in baseball. Sometimes the weaker teams are the tougher teams for certain pitchers, just depends on matchups, who is playing that day and the plate umpire.
If Gomez regresses it will be because of him wearing down and no other reason. If and when he starts getting hit around a decision should be made then not now, until then his performance warrants him staying in the rotation, especially since he is pitching better most of the other starters.

By: wkkortas Wed, 29 May 2013 18:54:58 +0000 It’s an interesting thought–even if Gomez’ numbers start falling ln line with what hs xFIP/normal luck would suggest, those aren’t bad numbers for a fourth or fifth starter.

By: Longman Wed, 29 May 2013 18:32:40 +0000 I’m not sure any park is that pitcher friendly when the home team’s lineup includes Cabrera and Fielder — but I get your point and I agree that Gomez is due to regress, but when and by how much are the big questions.

In my opinion, even if he’s just been very lucky, you ride that out until he actually does regress. Actual results have to mean something, don’t they?

By: Tim Williams Wed, 29 May 2013 18:17:50 +0000 It’s not based solely on xFIP. It’s based on his BABIP and Strand Rate. He’s not going to limit opponents to a .200 BABIP, and he won’t keep stranding 85% of runners.

Also, most of his starts have been against weak teams, and his start last night was in a pitcher friendly park. I feel it’s important to note that as well.

By: Longman Wed, 29 May 2013 18:15:35 +0000 I enjoy reading about advanced statistics and find them extremely useful and informative. However, I completely disagree with your suggestion that the “smart move” would be to remove Gomez after one more start and replace him with Morton based solely on his xFIP. That’s giving xFIP far too much sway over actual results.

First, as others have mentioned, Morton’s xFIP — even in his best year — wasn’t much better than Gomez’s is right now. Second, there is no way that the Pirates will pull a guy with a 2.15 ERA as a starter from the rotation simply on the basis of expected regression in the future — nor should they — unless they feel that they have a sure-fire replacement who will do as well or better than Gomez has done. That’s not Morton — at least not yet.

The smart move is for the Pirates to ride out Gomez’s hot hand — if that is all that it is — and if he regresses to the point where they feel Morton or someone else would be better, replace him then. But to replace him now when Morton has not shown that he’s back to his 2011 form — which again, wasn’t much better in terms of xFIP than Gomez this year — would be foolhardy. It would also send the wrong message to the players that advanced stats trump actual results on the field.

By: Tim Williams Wed, 29 May 2013 18:13:50 +0000 But he’s doing that in Triple-A. If he’s starting off bad against Triple-A teams, he’s not going to do better against MLB teams. Also, just because he improves in the later innings against Triple-A teams doesn’t mean he’s ready and will have the same success against the major league guys.

By: emjayinTN Wed, 29 May 2013 18:10:58 +0000 Tim: You know I have been watching especially those games where he starts out bad and then throws 6 no-hit innings. He has the arm and the repertoire – now he needs the maturity that can come more easily on a staff where he can learn from some excellent veterans – both pitchers and pitching coaches, veteran MLB Catchers, and 30,000 fans – Give him wings and challenge him. There are teams in MLB where he would have already been in the Rotation.