Latest Keith Law Mock Draft Has The Usual Names For Pirates, Surprise At The Top

Keith Law has posted his second mock draft(subscription required) this morning and he has two names going to the Pittsburgh Pirates that we have heard often.  With the #9 pick, he has High School catcher, Reese McGuire. At #14, he has the Pirates taking New Mexico first baseman DJ Peterson. 2013 draft

There has been a lot of talk with Peterson possibly going anywhere from sixth overall, to going to the Pirates with their second pick, so there is a chance the power-hitting righty isn’t available when the Pirates make their second selection. Assuming he doesn’t drop to #14, expect the Pirates to take a look at Mississippi State right fielder Hunter Renfroe, who is another advanced hitting that offers similar overall potential at a corner position.

McGuire is an athletic catcher, who already has plus defense and a decent bat that should only get better. He will stick behind the plate and his defense and intangibles are so good, that even if his bat doesn’t become a plus tool, he should still be an all-star caliber backstop.

The biggest surprise in his latest mock draft is the Houston Astros possibly taking Colin Moran with the first overall pick, though earlier in the week, it was said that he was one of their four finalists. So while it’s not a total surprise that they may take him over Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray and Kris Bryant, it is a big step up for Moran, who was recently getting mention in the Pirates range with their #9 pick. Another surprise is Gray falling to #5, his lowest spot in the last two months.

If the draft went down one through eight like Law predicts, the Pirates would pass on Trey Ball, the 6’6″ lefty out of High School in Indiana. Ball has fallen in this spot a lot recently. He is someone the Pirates would like to get, but may have better options at #9 and he likely won’t be available five picks later. Despite what we have heard about him, Law doesn’t have him going until the #16 pick, which would be as low as he has been in any recent mock draft.

Also getting passed by the Pirates would be Clint Frazier, the High School outfielder from Georgia. Frazier has tremendous power and looks to be a future corner outfielder that can hit 35 homers and play strong defense, with a big arm and speed to cover some ground. He plays center field now, but that might not be his future position in the pros long-term.

Two High School players from California that have been mentioned here often, are going #10 and #11 in Law’s mock draft. He has JP Crawford, the toolsy shortstop going first, followed by power-hitting first baseman Dominic Smith. Although neither name has been mentioned with the Pirates yet, those are two players you would like to see available at the #14 spot.

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John Dreker

John was born in Kearny, NJ, hometown of the 2B for the Pirates 1909 World Championship team, Dots Miller. In fact they have some of the same relatives in common, so it was only natural for him to become a lifelong Pirates fan. Before joining Pirates Prospects in July 2010, John had written numerous articles on the history of baseball while also releasing his own book and co-authoring another on the history of the game. He writes a weekly article on Pirates history for the site, has already interviewed many of the current minor leaguers with many more on the way and follows the foreign minor league teams very closely for the site. John also provides in person game reports of the West Virginia Power and Altoona Curve.

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  • deacs

    How would Josh Bell compare to Clint Frazier? I realize they’re 2 years apart. Just trying to get an idea if I should hope for him to fall to #9.

    • John Dreker

      They really aren’t similar, but offer similar upside. Frazier is a smaller player, hits right-handed, while Bell is a switch-hitter. Frazier seems to be more athletic, so speed can be part of his game, while Bell will probably hit for a higher average. You put them in the same system, they probably rank right next to each other. If I had to take a preference, I’d go Bell for his size and the fact most of his AB’s at PNC would come from the left side. Frazier could have slightly higher upside though, tremendous bat speed and power, plus very athletic and he won’t fill out much more, so he shouldn’t lose much speed as he moves up

      • John Dreker

        It’s basically the same situation where I say Peterson and Renfroe have similar overall value. If you’re going to pick one of them, I don’t think either is clearly better now or long-term, but they really aren’t similar type players. While I don’t think Peterson would be a popular pick, I think he could move fast enough that he would quell some of the hate for the pick pretty quickly. Might not be the best upside pick they could make at that spot, but he also has a much higher floor. Basically, he is very safe compared to a HS player

  • Lee Young

    Maguire or Frazier would make me very happy.

  • deacs

    I see. So if you have time how do Tony Sanchez and Reese Mcguire compare? Both defensively good with any bonus coming from offense? I’m guessing Mcguire has a higher upside but Sanchez was more polished since he was drafted out of college?

    • John Dreker

      Every time I read a McGuire scouting report, I think of Sanchez. Now you could say if he reminds you of him out of HS, compared to college, that should be a good thing. Sanchez wasn’t highly rated as a Soph in college and he has had some issues along the way to where he is now. McGuire seems to have a great head on his shoulders and a terrific work ethic, so you could see him reaching that .280, 15 homer, GG defense potential. Being a HS kid at a key position though, you never know how that translates to full season ball and the everyday grind that goes with it.

      • deacs

        Excellent. So basically Tony Sanchez without the bar fights. Thanks for the comparisons.

  • jalcorn

    If Clint Frazier falls to #9 he would have to be the pick over a C who may not hit enough. BA has Frazier ranked #4 overall and a near lock to go in the top 5 picks. I would not pass up him or Meadows at #9.

    Assuming they both go then 2 of Ball, McGuire, Renfroe, or Crawford will work nicely. Its not a deep draft at the very top, but there is a nice group of 10-15 guys that we can get 2 of. I’d prefer Ball and Crawford.

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