Projection Systems See Pirates Finishing Just Over .500
FanGraphs unveiled two new features Thursday, depth charts and projected standings. Supreme Overlord of FanGraphs (unofficial title) Dave Cameron explains how they work and how to use them. The key takeaway is that the standings use a combination of ZIPS and Steamer projection systems, along with the depth charts, to suss out season records for all 30 teams.
One purpose we can use the projected standings for is looking at the Pirates’ playoff chances. FanGraphs is pretty optimistic on the Bucs’ playoff chances, projecting an 84-78 record, tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks just one game behind both the Washington Nationals and the Cincinnati Reds for a Wild Card spot. The FanGraphs projections see the Pirates scoring more runs as the season goes on, but also giving up more for about an even run differential.
- FanGraphs: 84-78, +10 run differential
- Prospectus: 82-80, -2 run differential, 30.9% chance to make playoffs
- Davenport: 82-80, 30.7% chance to make playoffs
All three sites project the Pirates to end up with a winning season, but just barely. What’s also important is that the Pirates’ target should be 87 wins, which would be enough to grab the second Wild Card in all three systems.
Also, the projections appear to have the Bucs’ record outperforming their run differential a little bit, which makes sense if the team’s bullpen continues to perform well. Good late-inning pitching is the most common reason for a team’s record outpacing its run differential.
FanGraphs’ depth charts offer a free alternative to those from Baseball Prospectus, which are based on PECOTA projections and require a subscription. The biggest difference between the two sites for the Pirates is that FanGraphs is more optimistic about the rest of the season for Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, which explains why it projects a better record for the Bucs than Baseball Prospectus does.