Comments on: Sorry, Jeff Locke, You Won’t Keep Dominating http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Fri, 14 Nov 2014 05:48:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0 By: James Santelli http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html#comment-28091 Wed, 29 May 2013 04:31:44 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=54171#comment-28091 No reason you can’t join the fun!

— Easy. The Pirates are a good defensive team, and the Pirates are a bad one. But read the article closely, Kevin. I never say Locke’s ERA can’t be lower than his FIP. In fact, it probably will. But no pitcher in half a century has maintained such a LARGE difference between the two. This happens every year in the first few starts for some pitchers, and they ALWAYS come down to Earth. If you want to bet on Jeff Locke being the pitcher that out-performs the history of THOUSANDS of pitcher seasons, go right ahead. It’s not a bet I’ll make.

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By: Kevin Anstrom http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html#comment-28090 Wed, 29 May 2013 04:08:47 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=54171#comment-28090 Late to the conversation. I usually don’t comment on stats articles.

How would you explain the large gaps between ERA and FIP for the Tigers and Pirates? Is it still an issue of “small sample size”?

Given that the Pirates will have Marte in left, etc.why wouldn’t we expect Locke’s ERA to be lower than his FIP?

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By: Kevin_Young http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html#comment-27749 Wed, 22 May 2013 13:55:51 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=54171#comment-27749 Oh by no means. I’m saying that the above comparisons to Tom Glavine are a bit outrageous. I like Locke, but just go to fangraphs and look at his player page…he almost never outperforms his FIP.

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By: James Santelli http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html#comment-27732 Wed, 22 May 2013 07:36:55 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=54171#comment-27732 Thanks, Andrew. I will keep the jokes up, even if they are cringe-worthy. ESPECIALLY if they are cringe-worthy. I really dig this type of analysis when I see it elsewhere, but my eyes sort of glaze over if I see paragraph after paragraph of the same stats, same numbers… my goal is to liven things up, or at least try.

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By: mjdouble http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html#comment-27726 Tue, 21 May 2013 23:01:43 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=54171#comment-27726 And if you fail to acknowledge that the one game he surrendered 3 of the 5 HR allowed doesn’t drastically skew his FIP then that is your prerogative. Don’t get my wrong, I don’t think Locke will maintain a sub 3 ERA either. But this is really misapplication of FIP you are using to support that theory.

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By: James Santelli http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html#comment-27725 Tue, 21 May 2013 22:32:00 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=54171#comment-27725 “Greetings, friend! Do you wish to look as happy as me? Well, you’ve got the power inside you right now. So use it and send one dollar to Happy Dude, 742 Evergreen Terrace, Springfield. Don’t delay, eternal happiness is just a dollar away.”

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By: James Santelli http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html#comment-27724 Tue, 21 May 2013 22:28:55 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=54171#comment-27724 Like I said above, it just so happens that Locke’s last few starts correspond with some teams who really struggle at the plate. If you want to wipe away the first three starts, that is your prerogative, but it makes everything less reliable.

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By: James Santelli http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html#comment-27723 Tue, 21 May 2013 22:27:37 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=54171#comment-27723 If you have the time, go to FanGraphs and look at the pitchers with the lowest BABIP, LOB% and FIP-ERA season by season. What you will see is that the top of those lists are STACKED with 2013 pitchers, and some good pitchers from other years sprinkled in. That tells me that the kind of regression we will see from Locke is not unique, it happens EVERY year to EVERY pitcher. I suppose Locke could be the exception, but I would bet some significant money that he will not. That’s what the article is about. If Locke ends the season with under a 4.00 ERA, good for him. My piece was about his not going the whole season with a 2.73 ERA. If you missed that, then I failed as a writer.

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By: James Santelli http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html#comment-27722 Tue, 21 May 2013 22:23:14 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=54171#comment-27722 This is a great point, and something I did not make enough note of in the piece. Yes, I can absolutely see Locke’s FIP going down a bit, especially since his strikeout numbers are down this season. However, the point that his FIP is a more reliable indicator of future run-prevention numbers still stands. Thank you for making note of that, though, jaygray.

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By: James Santelli http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/sorry-jeff-locke-you-wont-keep-dominating.html#comment-27721 Tue, 21 May 2013 22:21:42 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=54171#comment-27721 He absolutely continues to mature, and I point out that he is still a young guy. However, the supposed “maturation” in the last month also coincides with his pitching against some pretty weak opponents. Remember that as he takes the mound the next four starts against teams that have been above-average hitters in 2013.

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