Comments on: What Are the Odds the Pirates Draft a Future Major League Hitter? http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/what-are-the-odds-the-pirates-draft-a-future-major-league-hitter.html Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Mon, 08 Sep 2014 09:33:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.2 By: Y2JGQ2 http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/what-are-the-odds-the-pirates-draft-a-future-major-league-hitter.html#comment-27481 Thu, 16 May 2013 21:12:57 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=53643#comment-27481 I think i’d agree with you. I’d take Moran at #9 and JP Crawford at #14 assuming both are available. If Moran isn’t available maybe you take crawford under slot at #9 and then the notre dame 3B at #14. Or you take Austin Meadows at #9 and Crawford at #14 and roll the dice with two high schoolers.

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By: stickyweb http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/what-are-the-odds-the-pirates-draft-a-future-major-league-hitter.html#comment-27478 Thu, 16 May 2013 18:26:54 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=53643#comment-27478 jalcorn,
I disagree about there being no difference in the chance of getting an impact hitter between college and HS players. That’s true of Cs and OFs, but college 3Bs have a 100% better chance of being impact player and college SSs and 1Bs have 50% and 38% better chance respectively. That seems significant to me.

Furthermore, the chance of a college player making the majors is substantially higher at every postion: C 62%, SS 45%, 3B 110%, OF 40% and 1B 26%. Reading this, I don’t see why you would ever draft a high school player. This completely destroys (albeit with a small sample size, where have we heard that before) the conventional argument that the college player may be closer to the majors when drafted but the high schooler’s ceiling is way higher (i.e. more of a chance of being an impact). The impact side of the argument falls apart here.

As the article mentioned, the individual and the ranking affect the analysis too. For instance, you wouldn’t take the hypothetical college 3B ranked 99th ahead of Meadows just because college 3B have such a better chance of being both ML and impact player, but the decision never comes down to that. There’s always a college player within a few ranking spots of the HS player, so I’d say Moran over Meadows is a no brainer, without even considering need.

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By: meatygettingsaucy http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/what-are-the-odds-the-pirates-draft-a-future-major-league-hitter.html#comment-27476 Thu, 16 May 2013 17:18:47 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=53643#comment-27476 I really want Moran to drop to us but it seems really unlikely, especially with the very likely occurrence that Manaea, Stanek, and possibly Frazier are all going to drop slightly. I could see Moran going as high as 4th and don’t see an organization like the Red Sox passing on him. If he is taken, I wouldn’t mind grabbing the top college arm (if he is BPA) then with the 14th pick grabbing Smith or Crawford if they are available.

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By: Susanne Klich Langford http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/what-are-the-odds-the-pirates-draft-a-future-major-league-hitter.html#comment-27472 Thu, 16 May 2013 16:17:36 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=53643#comment-27472 I think Moran looks like the guy to take. Although there is something strange about his swing I cant completely put my finger on. Maybe he has a lot of moving parts with his hands to go with the wide-spread stance. I could see some toning down needing to be done at higher levels. Others would know way more than me about this. I do think that he will hit for power though when I look at him. He has good size. His uncle BJ Surhoff developed power over time and they have similar builds…not that it means anything.
-frederick langford

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By: Susanne Klich Langford http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/what-are-the-odds-the-pirates-draft-a-future-major-league-hitter.html#comment-27471 Thu, 16 May 2013 16:07:58 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=53643#comment-27471 You must be young Vanderbilt. The Neil Walker catcher thing has been beaten to death by Pirate bloggers I was waiting for you to ask “Do you think there’s a chance he will move back to catcher someday.” That is the most asked question in the history of Bucco Bloggers i think. Walker had one of the more interesting journeys to the majors of any top pick I have seen: Up and down hitting, slowly developing power, catcher, to 3B, to 2B…talk of the OF even. I still dont think he is done developing and there is a little more power there if he can get healthy. Great article Tim. Slightly surprising college 3B are the most reliable position in the high rounds. If I had to guess I would have said college OF. I think back in recent Pirates drafts and we have had a bunch of guys: Alvarez, Mercer, D’Arnaud, even Matt Hague played a little college 3B I think. The Bucs are a good example of this study in action. Hopefully they do the pitchers too. Would love to see that.

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By: jalcorn http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/what-are-the-odds-the-pirates-draft-a-future-major-league-hitter.html#comment-27469 Thu, 16 May 2013 16:03:51 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=53643#comment-27469 I’ve been following his series too and I think it really confirms what we already thought about the top of the draft; a high school hitter has about a 1 in 3 chance of big league success regardless of position while a college bat has a 1 in 2 chance. Beyond that the chance of getting an impact player is not different between college and prep hitters. We have known from other studies (and my own) that college bats are the safest pick followed by prep bats and college arms (about even) and prep arms carrying the greatest risk with regard to making it to the majors and being useful. However, when it comes to getting stars there is no formula. Thus, its not as easy as just saying that we should only draft college players since their risk is lower compared to prep players.

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By: vanderbilt http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/05/what-are-the-odds-the-pirates-draft-a-future-major-league-hitter.html#comment-27468 Thu, 16 May 2013 15:42:54 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=53643#comment-27468 Watched the story about Neil Walker last night on Pirates post game. never knew he started out as a catcher.

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