Averaging Out The Final Mock Draft Rankings

Now that we have the final mock drafts in from three of the leading experts, we can now take them all and figure out an average ranking. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been linked heavily to HS catcher Reese McGuire and Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis all believe that he will be the Pirates pick at that spot. That could change of course if a better name happens to fall, which we saw last year, or if a team ahead of the Pirates takes McGuire first.

Reese McGuire is linked to the Pirates in all three mock drafts today

Reese McGuire is linked to the Pirates in all three mock drafts today

With the second pick in the first round, there is no consensus about who the Pirates will take. The three experts have D.J. Peterson, Hunter Renfroe and Dominic Smith. The latter is a huge upside HS hitter, while the first two are strong college hitters who provide a little more certainty when it comes to the final product. They might not have the ceiling Smith does, but when dealing with a HS player, there is always a better chance he will fail.

With that in mind, here are the average rankings. Next to each name is their rankings with each draft expert, which are just arranged in the order they were released today(Callis, Law, Mayo). Check the links above under their names for more details.

1. Jonathan Gray – 1, 2, 1

2. Mark Appel - 2, 1, 2

3. Kris Bryant – 3, 3, 3

4. Kohl Stewart – 4, 4, 4

5. Colin Moran – 5, 5, 5

6. Braden Shipley – 6, 6, 6

7. Trey Ball – 8, 8, 8

T8. Clint Frazier – 7, 13, 7

T8. Austin Meadows – 10, 7, 10

T8. Reese McGuire- 9, 9, 9

You will see that because of the uncertainty with others, Trey Ball is ranked 7th despite everyone thinking the Royals will take him one spot later. Even more interesting, you’ll also notice that three players tied for eighth overall. That includes Reese McGuire and the two huge upside HS outfielders from Georgia.

Early in the year, I would make passing mention of Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows for a simple reason, no one mentioned them any lower than fifth best in this class and both got mention at the very top. Both played well during their season, so I didn’t expect either to be available. This is a recent occurrence with these two, within the last month there has been talk that one or both could slip, so their names have been mentioned more on this site.

Despite the fact both have been rated higher than McGuire all year, that doesn’t mean the Pirates will take either if they drop. McGuire is a solid pick where he is, normally getting mentioned throughout the year in this range, occasionally lower by people who think Jonathan Denney is the better overall catcher in this class. Basically, McGuire isn’t a reach, it’s just that some people don’t agree that he will be the best available when the pick comes up.

As for the second pick, this is the group that gets mentioned for that #14 pick most often. You should also remember that if Meadows and/or Frazier do pass the Pirates the first time, they may be a possibility with that second pick, which would be a major accomplishment to get McGuire and one of them. The group below includes every other player mentioned in the top 14 in any of the three mock drafts.

11. J.P. Crawford – 12, 10, 13

12. D.J. Peterson – 14, 11, 12

13. Hunter Renfroe – 13, 12, 14

14. Ryan Stanek Р11, 18, 11

15. Dominic Smith – 16, 14, 17

Some other names to watch include pitcher Alex Gonzalez from Oral Roberts. He was really a later addition to this list, someone I never heard much about until very recently. He falls in the 15-20 range in all three mock drafts. Ian Clarkin, a HS lefty, also got mentioned close to the Pirates, going 15 and 16 in two of the mock drafts. Also we have heard some college bats that the Pirates might look at if Peterson and Renfroe are off the board. Those names to remember are Aaron Judge, Phillip Ervin, Eric Jagielo and Austin Wilson.

Follow us all day long for coverage on the Pirates draft. Links for everything can be found here.

John Dreker

Author: John Dreker

John was born in Kearny, NJ, hometown of the 2B for the Pirates 1909 World Championship team, Dots Miller. In fact they have some of the same relatives in common, so it was only natural for him to become a lifelong Pirates fan. Before joining Pirates Prospects in July 2010, John had written numerous articles on the history of baseball while also releasing his own book and co-authoring another on the history of the game. He writes a weekly article on Pirates history for the site, has already interviewed many of the current minor leaguers with many more on the way and follows the foreign minor league teams very closely for the site. John also provides in person game reports of the West Virginia Power and Altoona Curve.

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  • deacs

    I apologize because you probably answered this in one post or another but if 1-8 go as expected Gray, Appel, Bryant, Stewart, Moran, Shipley, Ball, Frazier in some order, are you comfortable with McGuire at 9 since every Mock in America has them taking him? Would you want Meadows over him?

    • John Dreker

      My person ranking is Gray-Appel-Bryant-Stewart-Frazier-Meadows-Shipley-Moran-Ball-McGuire…he ranks tenth which means he won’t be my first choice for that pick, but I’m okay with it because it is close. Just not who I would pick

  • deacs

    Yeah I’d prefer Ball as well so one day we can have an embarassment of pitching in the minors and make an Anthony Rizzo type deal. Thanks and keep up the good work.

  • HamburgBucco

    Can we all agree though that almost regardless of who we pick out of all the names mentioned with our 9+14 pick, we will have a good or even very good draft this year anyway ? One might argue if it’s worth the added risk to take one or two guys with a higher ceiling or if we should go with a safer option or players who are more likely to sign.

    But this draft class looks pretty deep, so with the 9+14 pick I expect us to add some decent quality to an already very fine farm system.

    • meatygettingsaucy

      Barring a ridiculous overdraft, this group could really add depth and upside to an already highly touted system. Draft day is always my favorite day. So much uncertainty and so many good players and excitement about who you are going to pick

  • John Dreker

    I have no problem with any of the players listed. Until Manaea went down with the arm injury, I thought the Pirates couldn’t do any wrong if they took any of the guys in the top 15 above(plus Manaea) Seeing as they had two picks through #14, you would have a great option left no matter what. Even without him, you still have that protection of one more player than picks, so even at 14 they should have two strong choices.
    If someone throws a surprise in there, then that will make the pick(s) stronger depending on where the surprise goes. I’ve heard the Royals could take Phil Bickford instead of Trey Ball. That would be great for the Pirates.
    I just want to see them take the best players they can take. So as long as they stick to the above group I won’t hate the picks, I just might believe they could have done better.

    • http://www.facebook.com/lee.young.161 Lee Young

      “I just want to see them take the best players they can take”

      agree…and then pray they pan out. :)