I’ve never been a fan of the new draft rules. I liked the old system where teams could spend whatever they wanted. I think if teams are allowed to spend whatever they want in free agency, then they should be able to spend whatever they want in the draft. I also never bought in to the fear that the Yankees and Red Sox could someday decide to pour all of their resources in the draft and out-spend the Pirates. The draft isn’t like free agency. If the Pirates draft someone, then it doesn’t matter how much money the Yankees or Red Sox have. The only person who can sign that player would be the Pirates.
We’re starting to see what the old system brought the Pirates. Tyler Glasnow and Nick Kingham are emerging as top pitching prospects this year, and guys who could have future top of the rotation potential. The 2008 draft is starting to look like a good one with the emergence of both Justin Wilson and Jordy Mercer this year. Plus there’s guys in the following drafts like Brandon Cumpton and Brock Holt who have helped out at times over the last year.
That’s not to say that the Pirates can’t find success under the new system. It just means they’re less likely to find a Tyler Glasnow in the fifth round, and get him to sign.
The one thing I do like about the new rules is that they seem to have worked as far as cutting down spending and speeding up the signing process. Here we are two weeks away from the signing deadline, and the Pirates have already signed all of their big picks. It’s almost looking like the signing deadline will be an extremely boring day. There’s the chance that they could spend some of the pool savings they’ve accumulated and get a tough sign after the tenth round. It’s also possible that those signings could take place before July 12th.
So far, out of the 33 first round picks, 27 have signed. Of those 27 picks, 15 have signed for slot, including Austin Meadows. Ten players have signed for below slot, including Mark Appel and Reese McGuire. Only two players have signed for above-slot deals, with six more holding out.
In the past, if you signed early, you were signing for slot or under slot. If you held out, it meant you were looking for an above-slot deal. That doesn’t seem to be the case under the new system. If you sign early it still means you’re signing for slot or under slot. But it seems that the players holding out aren’t holding out to get above-slot deals, but are holding out to get the full slot amount. So far the perception has been that players holding out will require an above-slot deal.
That’s the case with some players. Meadows and JaCoby Jones just accepted the full slot amount, but last I heard 7th round pick Buddy Borden was looking for an above-slot deal. The good news is that the slot price doesn’t seem to be automatic, especially in the top ten. Of the seven guys who signed out of the top ten picks, only two have received full slot value. All of the guys who signed before Meadows probably signed early because they weren’t holding out for the full slot value.
We’ve seen the opposite under the new draft rules already. Mark Appel held out and didn’t sign last year because he wanted way over slot. The Pirates didn’t give it to him, and instead got a compensation pick this year, which they used on Meadows. And if you want to compare them in a trade-like method, it wouldn’t be Appel vs Meadows. It would be Appel vs Meadows, Reese McGuire, Blake Taylor, next year’s first and second round picks, and about $2.75 M in taxes. The Pirates were smart for passing on Appel, and Appel ended up getting more money this time around, so he looked smart holding out for one more year, even if Pirates fans don’t like it.
The Pirates currently have $232,800 remaining for over-slot deals this year. That means they could spend $332,800 on a guy after the tenth round (or $216,400 each on two players, since you get $100,000 per guy before you start spending the pool money). If they went up to 4.9% over the bonus pool amount, they would receive a tax on the overage. However, they’d have a total of $668,145 to spend and wouldn’t lose any draft picks.
These amounts won’t get them the type of talent they could have had under the old system. There won’t be a draft like 2011 where they spend $8 M on Gerrit Cole, $5 M on Josh Bell, then still get Tyler Glasnow and Clay Holmes in the middle rounds. However, they could get an interesting guy outside of the top ten rounds. The best options would be Billy Roth, Nick Buckner, or Carson Cross. Last year the Pirates signed Max Moroff, Hayden Hurst, and John Kuchno to above-slot deals after the 10th round, spending $525,000, and being left with $92,600 in their bonus pool. If they go up to 4.9% over this year, you could probably expect the same type of results, with hopefully one of those three guys previously mentioned added to the list of signings.
Links and Notes
**Check out the newest episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 11: Second Half Sleepers and When Can Tony Sanchez Help?
**If you missed it earlier this week, be sure to check out Pirates Roundtable – Episode 1. This week we had Pat Lackey (WHYGAVS), Brian McElhinny (Raise the Jolly Roger), Jim Rosati (North Side Notch), Cory Weibel (Three Rivers Burgh Blog), plus our own James Santelli and Tom Bragg.