Comments on: Pirates Playoff Odds: Sweep Catapults Bucs Over 75 Percent http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Sat, 19 Apr 2014 14:46:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.3 By: Cato the Elder http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html#comment-30073 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 15:33:36 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=58312#comment-30073 If you are interested here is a good primer on the various projection systems.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-projection-rundown-the-basics-on-marcels-zips-cairo-oliver-and-the-rest/

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By: James Santelli http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html#comment-30033 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 03:30:24 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=58312#comment-30033 “If you looked at the Pirates’ percentages…”

I would say the exact opposite of your conclusion. The 2011 BP odds never got better than 5% for the Pirates. Last year’s odds topped out at 62%.

https://twitter.com/MBandi/status/348471582945062912

I would actually say the playoff odds were more realistic (read: less optimistic, and rightly so) about the Pirates’ chances than fans were. Look at what Nate Silver does in predicting the presidential election. They are odds, not predictions, but they are very useful. Guess what? PECOTA is his brainchild, and it has done well at predicting baseball. I think these odds are not only meaningful, but if you are reading them the right way, one of the better ways to observe a team’s chances.

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By: jon6er http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html#comment-30031 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 03:21:58 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=58312#comment-30031 Being a long time Pirates fan I’m just happy to be in the conversation. So far I like the resilience we have had to display this year that we didn’t in the first half last year. If you remember, last year St. Louis and Cincinnati were not playing as well as they are now. Also we seem to find a way this year to win when last year it was either we had a well pitched game or McCutchen just led the team to a blow out win

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By: Fred Langford http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html#comment-30030 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 03:08:25 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=58312#comment-30030 Also, shame on me for thinking ESPN was using a usefull index…I would lik to see a complete breakdown of everything that goes into the predictions.

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By: Fred Langford http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html#comment-30029 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 03:01:59 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=58312#comment-30029 How so meaningless? I think if you looked at the pirates’ percentages the last 2 years at this time you will see they can mean nothing unless you keep playing well. We are definitely better this year but we still have to go out and win games. The Pirates only have outscored their opponents by 29 runs….flip that and add some bad luck and some mistakes and a 5-15 streak can happen. I am a SABR guy but definitely can’t get too excited about the predictive index. Maybe it is the last 20 years in the back of my head. But I think it is more the 2011 & 12 second halves. I do think if Alvarez keeps playing well and Cutch improves even slightly and they add a decent bat and if the pitching holds up of course they are as good as anyone in the NL.

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By: James Santelli http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html#comment-30028 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 02:36:26 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=58312#comment-30028 That’s right, but I don’t analyze CoolStandings projections, because they don’t have much predictive value. They pretty much use only run differential and remaining schedule, and BP/FanGraphs/Davenport integrate many more important factors.

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By: brilemon http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html#comment-30023 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 01:13:40 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=58312#comment-30023 Does this make anyone else extremely nervous?…
What is the track record for each organization predicting playoff makeup accurately?
Basically: I’m looking for a guarantee of the predictability of the statistics. Ha.

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By: rburgh http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html#comment-30021 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 01:02:44 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=58312#comment-30021 I think ESPN is using the numbers from coolstandings.com.

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By: James Santelli http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html#comment-30018 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 00:46:54 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=58312#comment-30018 How so?

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By: veinteuno http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-playoff-odds-sweep-catapults-bucs-over-75-percent.html#comment-30017 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 23:56:34 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=58312#comment-30017 Enjoyable read

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