About a month ago the Pirates made a ton of promotions throughout the minor league system. The promotions saw several prospects moving up in the system, plus the 2013 debut of Luis Heredia in West Virginia.
With about a month in the books for all of these moves, now would be a good time to get some first impressions. None of these guys have accumulated enough playing time to the point where their stats say a lot about their potential. Gregory Polanco is off to a good start, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to move up. Stetson Allie is off to a bad start, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bust. There’s really no rhyme or reason as to who stays hot after a promotion, and who starts off slow before adjusting to the level.
Since we do have a month in the books on these promotions, plus two months left in the minor league season, I thought I’d take a look at how each player was performing, along with some thoughts on where each player could end up by the end of the year and what they have to do to get there.
Stolmy Pimentel – 2.88 ERA in 25 IP, 21:9 K/BB ratio
Pimentel has had three great starts and one horrible start. That’s kind of how he started the year with Altoona, although pretty much every start at the beginning of the year was great, followed by a month long slide of horrible starts. I could see him being an option out of the bullpen in September, and maybe even serving as an emergency starter before that if he’s needed and if he has more good starts than bad ones.
Andrew Lambo – .302/.384/.628, 7 HR in 86 AB
Lambo hasn’t missed a beat since his promotion. In fact, he’s improved over his Altoona numbers. He had a .910 OPS in Altoona, and a 1.012 OPS with Indianapolis. That’s important, since his Altoona numbers were clouded by the fact he had spent so much time at the level. He’s going to need more time in Triple-A to show that this is legit. That should coincide with the amount of time the Pirates need to give Jose Tabata to see if he can be the answer in right field.
Gregory Polanco – .319/.397/.464, 2 HR in 69 AB
Polanco is starting to heat up. In the month of July he is 8-for-19 with a double and a homer. He has also carried his advanced plate patience over to Double-A, with an 8:11 BB/K ratio. Polanco is an advanced hitter and doesn’t have much to work on, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t need time against upper level pitching. He should be given at least until September before being moved up to Indianapolis. That would line up with Indianapolis and their expected playoff games. As for whether he would be an option for the majors this year, I’ve had a few people point out that Yasiel Puig was promoted from Double-A to the majors. Puig also had a .313 average, a .982 OPS and eight homers in 147 at-bats. If Polanco does that, and if right field is still an issue in September, then we might be able to revisit that topic. I’d much rather see Andrew Lambo get a shot in the short-term.
Nick Kingham – 3.86 ERA in 25.2 IP, 24:6 K/BB ratio
It was almost a month ago that Kingham was promoted, and so far he’s doing great. He had a bad start tonight, but his start in Altoona is very similar to his start with Bradenton. With the Marauders he had a 3.86 ERA in 21 innings over his first four starts with a 20:4 K/BB ratio. He eventually started to dominate, and had a 2.10 ERA in 30 innings over his last five starts, with a 26:5 K/BB ratio. If he does the same through July and August, I could see Kingham in Indianapolis by the end of the year.
Eliecer Navarro – 6.14 ERA in 22 IP, 16:11 K/BB ratio
Navarro is off to a rough start with Altoona after dominating in Bradenton. He’s a guy who I thought was maxed out at high-A, and wouldn’t do much beyond the level. The biggest concern is that he has 11 walks in 22 innings after 13 walks in 69.1 innings. There is no one pushing him out of the rotation, so he should continue to get opportunities to turn things around.
Stetson Allie – .236/.338/.400, 1 HR in 55 AB
Allie is off to a slow start in Bradenton after being on fire to start the year in West Virginia. When he’s hitting the ball, he’s hitting the ball hard, with six doubles and a homer. The downside is that he’s striking out way too much, with 23 strikeouts in 55 at-bats. I wouldn’t write him off due to a slow start. It’s more common for a guy to jump to a new level and have a slow adjustment than it is for a guy to carry over his hot hitting from one level to the next. He’s got a five game hitting streak with three doubles and a homer in that span, so hopefully that’s a sign that he is heating up.
Joely Rodriguez – 2.93 ERA in 15.1 IP, 6:5 K/BB ratio
Rodriguez hasn’t been bad from a runs perspective, but he hasn’t really been dominant with a lot of strikeouts. He is getting a lot of ground ball outs, and the walks are still at a reasonable rate. I’ve only seen him once since he was promoted, and will see him a second time tomorrow.
Orlando Castro – 6.00 ERA in 15 IP, 11:6 K/BB ratio
Castro and Rodriguez were both dominating in low-A, with Castro having the better numbers. I liked Rodriguez better because I felt he had the stuff needed to have success in higher levels, while Castro was benefitting from good command, which wouldn’t play in the higher levels. I don’t want to say that Castro’s rough start is a sign that he will fade out in high-A. I still like him more than most lefties who rely on command. I’d chalk this up more to a slow start. Like Rodriguez, I’ve only seen Castro once since he was promoted, and should see him again on Monday.
Luis Heredia – 1.93 ERA in 14 IP, 11:9 K/BB ratio
Heredia has gotten off to a good start. There are encouraging signs and there are warning signs. The encouraging thing is that he’s got a low ERA and has more strikeouts this year. He made the switch to a slider last year in an attempt to get more strikeouts. So far it is working with a 7.1 K/9, compared to a 5.4 K/9 in the NYPL last year. The big warning sign is that he has nine walks in 14 innings. Commanding his pitches is going to be a big issue, as it is with all young pitchers. He’s like Tyler Glasnow in that regard, except he’s not striking out two batters per inning like Glasnow.
Links and Notes
**Download the newest episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 12: Prospect Analysis on Jameson Taillon, Luis Heredia, and Tyler Glasnow. Also includes an interview with 2013 first round pick Reese McGuire.
**The newest episode of the Pirates Roundtable is up. This week we had Jim Rosati from North Side Notch, Ed Giles from In Clemente Weather, and David Manel of Bucs Dugout stopped by.