Is Jeff Locke's lack of regression due to the infield shifts? (Photo Credit: David Hague)
We've talked a lot this year about regression. Jeff Locke is a regression candidate. Jeanmar Gomez is a regression candidate. The entire Pirates' pitching staff has combined to lead the league in BABIP, and it's not close. You could say the same for strand rates, although the Braves and Royals are close behind them.
Every time the topic of regression comes up, it is met with "Maybe (insert player here) is the exception. Maybe he is doing something that allows him to continue with these unexpected stats." Usually the arguments read as desperation, trying to find some way that Jeanmar Gomez is actually a 2.76 ERA pitcher. And usually the players end up regressing.
So far the Pirates haven't regressed. It's not like regression comes from flipping a switch. It's not like Jeff Locke will maintain a .225 BABIP up until the point where you check out his stats on FanGraphs. Regression actually do...
Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.