Game Recaps

Locke, Pirates Eke Out 3-2 Win Over Reds to Avoid Sweep

Locke, Pirates Eke Out 3-2 Win Over Reds to Avoid Sweep

Jeff Locke Pirates

Jeff Locke has reduced his season FIP from 4.47 to 3.77 over the last two months. (Photo Credit: David Hague)

Jeff Locke does not suck.

I wrote two months ago that Locke would not continue to dominate as he dominated the early part of the season. What he has done in those two months surprised me: he kept pitching to prevent runs.

Locke’s winning performance in the Pirates’ 3-2 Sunday victory in Cincinnati was indicative of the type of pitcher he is becoming. His control remains rough as he walked 4 of 22 batters and allowed his only run to score on a wild pitch that flew away from him. Continuing to miss the strike zone 59% of the time, third-worst in baseball, will lead to more men on base and more runs allowed.

Despite the control issues, Locke appears well-suited for the defense he pitches in front of. He is generating more ground balls this year to an infield that turns those grounders into an assembly line of outs. Locke got six more groundouts Sunday versus one flyout. Most importantly, he did not allow a hit after the first batter and totaled six strikeouts, including two each of top-lineup hitters Chris Heisey and Brandon Phillips. His 6 hits allowed per 9 innings is second in baseball only to Cy-Young winner Clayton Kershaw.

Just as anything can happen in 10 starts, anything can happen in 20. Locke’s BABIP (.223) and strand rate (83%) are still unsustainably high given his relatively low strikeout rate, and it’s not unfair to say he is unlikely to maintain his 2.11 ERA the entire season.

A larger sample changes my analysis, though. Locke attacks right-handers with zeal on the inner third of the plate. He gets pretty weak contact from all hitters and his pitching to contact benefits from a well-run defense. Jeff Locke, a left-hander who uses the fielders behind him well, fits well into the Pirates system and could continue to dominate for the season’s final two months.

Oh Right, The Game

The Pirates went 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position Sunday, still worse than it should be even though the improving Homer Bailey notched a career-high 12 strikeouts. That fact can be overlooked today solely because it was enough to win after Garrett Jones started the scoring by hitting a solo home run.

Those two hits with RISP both came in the 7th inning, and both were semi-solidly-hit ground balls. Michael McKenry cranked a near-homer double to left-center, and Jordy Mercer bounced a single past Phillips to put the Pirates ahead by one. Clint Barmes then singled and Jose Tabata bounced another hit off Phillips’ glove to score Mercer. Prime examples of regression in those situations: batted balls finding holes.

Then the Bucs’ bullpen did Bucs bullpen things. Tony Watson, Bryan Morris and Justin Wilson tag-teamed a scoreless 7th. Mark Melancon was missing some command, but danced out of the jam allowing only one run thanks to a ground-ball double play. Jason Grilli gave up a single but nothing else for his league-leading 30th save.

All in all, Pittsburgh’s offense remains middling at best while the run-prevention side gave the Pirates multiple opportunities to record a sweep instead of a series loss. Dropping a series to the Reds with a minus-2 run differential is just about what the Pirates should have expected heading into Cincinnati. It’s a bad result, but not a demoralizing one as they start a four-game series in Washington that could easily knock the sliding Nationals completely out of the playoff picture.

  • skliesen

    Circle this win on the schedule. Not all wins are created equal, and this one was bigger than most.

    Say what you want about Locke and his weaknesses, but to me he has shown the ability to make his best pitches when the situation calls for it. How do you quantify drive and determination? Some players turn into shrinking violets under pressure and some rise up.

  • joe g.

    James makes a great point about Locke’s willingness to pitch inside to RH batters. He also practically refuses to leave the ball over the middle of the plate which is driving up his walk rate. it’s simply harder to hit a pitch on the inner or outer third and if Locke can improve his control, we may be looking at a Tom Glavine type of pitcher – more like a poor men’s variety of Glavine.

    • jon6er

      He gets squeezed hard by a lot of umpires because he is virtually a rookie. If he continues to pitch like this the rest of the year by next year he will get the calls on those corner strikes. This isn’t new in baseball it has always been like that. A lot of good hitters have seen Locke more than once and he hasn’t broke yet. very impressive so far.

  • Y2JGQ2

    Tabata didn’t bounce a ball off of anyone’s glove, it was a hard hit line drive over Phillip’s head james…..

  • Y2JGQ2

    The thing about Locke which comes out to me is not a lack of control. He occasionally loses it, but usually one hitter at a time. I would say rather that he is amazingly stubborn. if he misses, he misses out of the zone, to safety….NOT over the plate. If he’s down in the count, he still makes quality pitches which was highlighted by opposing batters being something like 5-32 in full count situations. So while he does walk batters, his willingness to pitch to corners with all his pitches has allowed him to get consistent weak contact in high leverage situations. I would wonder where his line-drive rate is compared to similar top 20 ERA pitchers in baseball. That would be a great stat to see.

  • CalipariFan506

    Locke’s refusal to go over the middle of the plate is a good thing IMO. Even if it costs him walks. His initial HR rate in September 11, 12 and April this year was going to end his big league career pretty quickly. I’ll take the occasional walks over 2+ HR/( that he had.

Game Recaps

James dabbles in the baseballey-writey world. He won the SABR Analytics Conference Research Award for contemporary baseball analysis. It was for that defensive shifts piece, you remember that? Not a huge deal, he also lost a bunch of other awards.

He has also written for, Pittsburgh Magazine, Pittsburgh Sports Report and the official websites of the Los Angeles Clippers and Pittsburgh Penguins.

By night, James is a television news reporter and weekend anchor for WKBN and WYTV in Youngstown, Ohio. Makes sense, seeing as how his degree from the University of Southern California is in Broadcast Journalism.

James dispenses more bad jokes at his Twitter account, @JamesSantelli. It’s there that he promises to write in the first-person.

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