First Pitch

First Pitch: The Five Stages of Jeff Locke Regression Grief

First Pitch: The Five Stages of Jeff Locke Regression Grief

All season on this site we had been talking about how Jeff Locke was due for regression. The left-hander had an ERA around 3.00, and eventually that dropped as low as 2.01 on June 19th. That would have made him one of the best starters in the majors. His advanced metrics suggested a different story. Locke's FIP bounced around a lot in the first half of the season, but from the start of June he has been consistently in the 3.70-4.00 range.

The main reason we were saying that Locke would regress was because of that FIP. Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher controls, and removes any outside help that could be influenced by other players on the team, or luck. In this case, Locke was playing above his head, stranding an unsustainable amount of runners.

Lately Locke has seen some struggles. There was the horrible outing today, which James Santelli recapped. There was a four run in four inning game on July 31st. The other starts have been good, but we're just not seeing...

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Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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