Comments on: First Pitch: Why Don’t Pitchers Speak Up Sooner About Injuries? http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html Your best source for news on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their minor league system. Fri, 25 Jul 2014 22:57:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.1 By: smurph http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html#comment-34478 Fri, 23 Aug 2013 16:24:15 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=64350#comment-34478 Pirates have an off day Monday, and then only two more for the rest of the season. As it now appears we may not see Wandy the rest of this season, it might make sense to give a spot start to a 6th starter after the Sept. 1 roster expansion. Cole and/or Locke could skip a start or you could just give everyone an extra day between starts. It now appears Cole will be a starter the rest of the regular season, and might even be their #4 in the playoffs. I would say give Locke one more regular turn. If he is still this bad, skip one or two turns with him.

]]>
By: Spirit of79 http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html#comment-34475 Fri, 23 Aug 2013 16:06:40 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=64350#comment-34475 I agree with jalcorn. Y2 introduced the concept of selling and I agree activities should lead to results. Sometimes they don’t. Just like sometimes results happen in sales in spite of a lack of good activity – and I think that’s where Locke falls. He had been getting good results (low ERA) even though his peripherals have been pedestrian. Its like a sales rep who has a large account or large order fall into his lap even though he/she has not done what you would typically expect to happen to earn the account or order.

]]>
By: steelpro http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html#comment-34472 Fri, 23 Aug 2013 15:36:01 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=64350#comment-34472 I think it is mental fatigue more than physical. He has put a lot of guys on base this year and has gotten by by living on the edges. When you have to be that perfect with your pitches that often it wears on a pitcher. Hitters have adjusted. They aren’t chasing like they were early in the season. He needs to go after hitters early in the count. Trust that his stuff can get outs when he puts it over the plate. Locke and Cole are polar opposites. Locke nibbles off the plate. Cole tries to split it in half.

]]>
By: jalcorn http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html#comment-34469 Fri, 23 Aug 2013 15:21:28 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=64350#comment-34469 Locke threw 176 innings last year, at 143 this season it is not a case of territory he hasn’t been in. His average fastball velocity has actually been higher in 3 of his starts this month than all season beforehand. It sounds like a case of seeing what you want to see and not reality. Reality is that Locke is a somewhat valuable back-end SP, not a top or mid rotation guy.

]]>
By: jalcorn http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html#comment-34468 Fri, 23 Aug 2013 15:17:49 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=64350#comment-34468 Seems like you are having trouble separating individual performance from team performance. That is the crux of the Saber /DIPS movements. Locke has not pitched well however his defense has performed great behind him and he has gotten lucky with the sequence of hits allowed.

Runs allowed and consequently innings pitched are not solely determined by the pitcher. You can say he has done well (mostly luck and defense), but you can’t say he has pitched well.

]]>
By: Y2JGQ2 http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html#comment-34452 Fri, 23 Aug 2013 14:23:04 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=64350#comment-34452 The definition of “pitching well” goes to runs allowed and innings pitched. Nothing else, possible what percentage of games started your team wins. The “activities” which produce those numbers such as k/9, bb/9 BABIP are important to look at as factors when a pitcher is not “pitching well” you and a lot of people look at it completely backwards. “activities” as we say in sales, generally “lead” to results. But don’t mistake activites as being the results. The fact is, Locke HAS pitched extremely well until lately. Regression or not, quite frankly he just isn’t pinpoint in his control in the zone and sharp with the pitches as he was earlier in the season which could be cause he’s wearing down.

]]>
By: leadoff http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html#comment-34450 Fri, 23 Aug 2013 14:16:54 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=64350#comment-34450 It is amazing how well this team played and the biggest topic is on how bad a Pirate pitcher pitched. It is usually the right fielder, but today we decided Locke would be the whipping boy. How about how good Tabata looked?
My thoughts are not on who played poorly, Locke was going to wear down, I said this a lot of times, he is frail, over the winter he needs to build up those legs, but any comparisons to any other pitcher is not warranted, Locke started the game throwing 93mph, but by the 3rd inning that was gone. Teams have adjusted, they still can’t hit him if he stays on the corners, but pitchers that tire tend to have pitches drift over the plate a little too far. IMO, I think they will probably skip a turn with him. I would think that is something they don’t want to do because it means more innings on someone else, but Locke is clearly into territory he has never been in.

]]>
By: jalcorn http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html#comment-34441 Fri, 23 Aug 2013 13:37:07 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=64350#comment-34441 Its not “small sample size”, Locke hasn’t pitched very well all season. He has put too many runners on base with walks and is fairly hittable. He was never going to keep his strand rate so high and he was going to have a regression in his babip against. This is what we’ve been saying for months. Locke is a #4,5 SP and he should continue to produce in that manner until he limits baserunners and throws strikes. He just isn’t going to be successful with a 4.5/9 BB rate. He also isn’t going to maintain his very low HR rate.

Locke’s ERA is regressing, but he really hasn’t changed much. He just isn’t get incredibly lucky anymore with batted ball outcomes.

]]>
By: buster09 http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html#comment-34438 Fri, 23 Aug 2013 13:25:01 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=64350#comment-34438 axc : +1

]]>
By: axc201 http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08/first-pitch-why-dont-pitchers-speak-up-sooner-about-injuries.html#comment-34434 Fri, 23 Aug 2013 13:11:54 +0000 http://www.piratesprospects.com/?p=64350#comment-34434 It is not out of the question that he could be wearing down, since he did miss that game before the all-star break. Also, he only has 158 pitches in his last two starts, so the bucs are possibly being careful. Over his last five starts, his ERA is 7.7. Even including his two good starts right after break, his ERA is 5.88. That is nearly as far above his FIP as he was below it before break.

Having a FIP at 4.2 does not mean that since he had an ERA at 2ish in the first half, he will have an era at 6ish in the second half. That is one of the biggest gambler’s fallacies.

Rather FIP predicts his ERA going regress to around 4.2 going forward, which is well above what we have seen lately. With such a large stretch of the season with Locke under his FIP. Using FIP to project the future, Locke should end the season closer to his FIP, but still under.

In summary, how poorly he is pitching now, *SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT* is starting to veer well beyond normal regression to the mean or in this case FIP. Hopefully, Jeff will continue to regress, which in this case would be a vast improvement on what we have seen lately.

]]>