Pirates Being Favored Over Cardinals in Stat Friendly Previews

1380127_557902740931642_549484123_nIf you strongly favor statistical analysis, then your stance on RISP numbers is that it is not a predictive value. So while the St. Louis Cardinals have an amazing .330 average with runners in scoring position, going forward they should be expected to be closer to their .269 average overall.

It’s not a surprise that previews from people who think this way are picking the Pirates over the Cardinals in the NLDS.

Rany Jazayerli has a great preview on Grantland, and predicts that the Pirates will win in four games. Jazayerli sums up the impact of the RISP numbers, and the Pirates defensive shifts, here:

The Cardinals’ offense is also highly dependent on balls in play to succeed. The Cardinals were second in the NL in singles and first in doubles, but were just 13th in home runs. The Pirates, who have a sensational defense (third in the major leagues in Defensive Runs Saved) and who aggressively use defensive shifts to gain an edge, are a poor matchup for them.

He also makes a lot of points that I made in First Pitch last night. The Pirates have an improved offense compared to their season numbers, thanks to the addition of Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau. The Cardinals will be weak off the bench with no Matt Adams. And the Pirates starters match up well with the Cardinals, with the game two (Gerrit Cole vs Lance Lynn) and game three (Francisco Liriano vs Joe Kelly) matchups looking to be in favor of the Pirates.

Eno Sarris of ESPN Insider predicts that the Pirates will win in five games. He also points to the key matchup being the Pirates’ defense vs the Cardinals’ hitters. He points out that the shift works better on pull hitters, and that no playoff team pulls less than the Cardinals. So while the shift worked wonders against teams like the Reds this year, it might not be as effective against the Cardinals.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports only looked at the first two games, and says that the Pirates will win one of those games. He says that their lineup is underrated, due to the additions of Byrd and Morneau.

Share This Article

Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

Pirates Release NLDS Roster

Next Story »

Bullpen Wars: Why Pirates-Cardinals Could Be Decided in Relief

Latest Analysis

  • (Photo Credit: David Hague)

    Jose Tabata Changed His Swing After Talking With Marlon Byrd

    18 hours ago

    Yesterday, Jose Tabata put one on the roof of the batting cages over the left-field fence at Pirate City. Today, he added two more. By that pattern, ...

    Read More
  • Antonio Bastardo

    How Ray Searage is Trying to Fix Antonio Bastardo’s Control Issues

    21 hours ago

    Tony Watson has established himself as one of the best left-handed relievers in the game. Out of 142 qualified relievers last year, he ranked 21st in WAR, ...

    Read More
  • (Photo Credit: David Hague)

    Q&A: Will PNC Park Burn Down When Neil Walker Eventually Leaves?

    23 hours ago

    Last week we started a Q&A article that will run every Friday. Right after the first article went up, we got a lot more questions. Normally I’ll ...

    Read More
  • Tyler Glasnow

    The Change That Will Help Tyler Glasnow Reach His Upside

    2 days ago

    The 2011 draft made headlines for the Pittsburgh Pirates for two main reasons. They selected Gerrit Cole first overall, and gave him a record-setting bonus of $8 ...

    Read More
  • Jameson Taillon

    The Next Steps in Jameson Taillon’s Tommy John Rehab Process

    3 days ago

    Jameson Taillon threw a bullpen session yesterday, which I outlined in the daily recap. Taillon is still in “rehab mode” as Clint Hurdle put it, which means ...

    Read More
  • Sean Rodriguez

    The Keys to Sean Rodriguez Being a Productive Hitter

    4 days ago

    The Pittsburgh Pirates added Sean Rodriguez at a high cost this off-season. They traded promising pitching prospect Buddy Borden to the Rays, getting Rodriguez in return after ...

    Read More
  • Browse More Articles