If you look at Jeff Locke's numbers from the 2013 season, you won't find much wrong on the surface. He put up a 3.52 ERA in 166.1 innings last year, with a 4.03 FIP that suggests he over-performed his season numbers a bit, but no more than Charlie Morton (3.26/3.60), Wandy Rodriguez (3.59/4.42), or Jeanmar Gomez (3.35/3.85).
But the season numbers don't tell the story with Locke. During the first half of the season, he had a 2.15 ERA in 109 innings. During the second half, he had a 6.12 ERA in 57.1 innings. I didn't think he was as good as the first half numbers, but I also didn't think he was as bad as the second half numbers.
Locke's BABIP was .228 in the first half, and .365 in the second half. Typically starting pitchers are around .290-.300. His strand rate was 83.3% in the first half, and 67% in the second half. Starters are normally around 70%. So you had a case where Locke was lucky in the first half, and unlucky in the second half, hitting two extremes with neither telli...
Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.