Regression is a funny word. It has developed a negative connotation, probably because it is most often used to describe players who are over-performing their advanced metrics, and who are expected to regress down to their expected performance levels. But regression can work both ways. It can be the usual decline in numbers, but it can also talk about a potential improvement in numbers.
Last year we spent a lot of time talking about "regression" when it came to Jeff Locke, and we've taken the same approach on this site whenever any pitcher has a BABIP, strand rate, and/or HR/FB ratio that suggests he won't continue putting up strong numbers. So it's only fair to point out regression in the other sense, when a player is under-performing his numbers.
The problem with this kind of regression is that it comes with the fear that there could be something behind the numbers leading to the poor performance. If a pitcher is out performing his advanced metrics, people don't question it. In ...
Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.