Analysis

Pittsburgh Pirates Positive Regression Candidates: Pedro Alvarez

Pittsburgh Pirates Positive Regression Candidates: Pedro Alvarez

Yesterday I wrote about how the Pittsburgh Pirates have a lot of players who are primed to regress to the mean in a positive manner. Typically when discussing regression, we talk about how someone won't be able to keep up their strong performances, and will eventually fade. But it's also possible for players who are struggling to regress to the mean, and improve their current numbers.

That's the case with a lot of the hitters currently in the lineup, based on their BABIP. If you’re unfamiliar, BABIP stands for batting average per balls in play. It measures the percentage of balls hit into play that drop in for hits when you exclude home runs. For pitchers, the expected rate is .290-.300. For hitters, the rate isn’t limited to .300, but usually a hitter will stay in the same range throughout his career. So if a hitter has a .340 BABIP, that’s not considered lucky because it’s above .300, as long as the hitter has shown a tendency to consistently put up this BABIP over his career.

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Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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