Analysis

What Should You Expect From Each Rotation Spot?

What Should You Expect From Each Rotation Spot?

Back in 2006, Jeff Sackmann wrote an article in the Hardball Times taking a look at what should be expected from each rotation spot. His research was done because people tend to overestimate how good a pitcher should be. Sackmann studied the 2006 season to find the results for each spot in the rotation, using the following method:
For the purposes of this article, it's necessary to define exactly what a #1 starter (or #2, or #3) is. To keep things as simple as possible, I used ERA as a measure of pitching ability. I also figured that each rotation spot accounts for 32 starts. On many teams, the #1 guy isn't the same for the whole season. For example, let's look at the 2006 Twins. Here are all of the pitchers who made more than one start for Minnesota last year:
Starter GS ERA
Liriano 16 2.16
Santana 34 2.77
Bonser 18 4.22
Radke 28 4.32
Garza 9 5.76
Silva 31 5.94
Baker 16 6.37
Lohse 8 7.07
By ERA, Francisco Liriano was...

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Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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