Analysis

Breaking Down Jason Grilli’s Struggles

Breaking Down Jason Grilli’s Struggles

The poor recent outings from Jason Grilli have only highlighted his shaky performance in 2014.  The Pirates closer hasn't been good by either traditional or sabermetric statistics.  He's 0-2 with a 4.08 ERA, while blowing 3 saves out of his 14 opportunities. In 17 2/3 innings, he has struck out 17 (8.66 K/9) and walked 10 (5.09 BB/9).  Grilli hasn't posted that low a strikeout rate or that high a walk rate since coming to Pittsburgh.  Those numbers, combined with a sky high 1.53 HR/9, have resulted in a FIP of 5.24 and a xFIP of 4.73.

His work this year is still a "small sample size", and there's some reason to expect better performance going forward.  So far, 13.0% of  fly balls off of Grilli have left the park, which is above the league average and Grilli's career rate.  Conversely, the 37-year-old's BABIP is due to regress in the other direction, as it currently sits at .267.  Additionally, his batted ball profile looks like it is trending the wrong way, as he has a career low 27...

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