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First Pitch: When Do the Pirates Promote Their Pitching Prospects?

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The Pittsburgh Pirates have invested a lot of money into pitching prospects, especially through the MLB draft. They seem to have a very systematic way of moving guys through the system, with the innings at each level being a key trend to determine when a pitcher might move up. Ultimately, a player will only move up when he’s ready from a developmental standpoint. If he has the innings, but isn’t ready to move up, he probably won’t move up. If he doesn’t have the innings, the Pirates will probably wait until he gets to the low end of the normal range before a promotion, just to give enough time to see if the performance is legit.

There are going to be some questions this summer about the possible promotion of top prospects like Tyler Glasnow, Nick Kingham, Adrian Sampson and more. To get an idea of when these guys might be promoted, I went through the minors in previous years, looking at how many innings a pitcher threw at a certain level before a promotion. Remember that the key for any pitcher is the performance — not only on the stat sheet, but from a developmental standpoint. If you’ve got a guy like Tyler Glasnow or Adrian Sampson dominating, then the question becomes “when do they get promoted?” That’s where the innings pitched history comes in handy as a nice guide to use.

I’ll take a look at some specific situations below. Also, if you’re interested in hitters, I plan on doing a similar article covering that topic.

Low-A to High-A

Nick Kingham – 127 IP

Phil Irwin – 113 IP

Tyler Glasnow – 111.1 IP

Jameson Taillon – 92.2 IP

Joely Rodriguez – 72.2 IP

Brandon Cumpton – 67 IP

Casey Sadler – 66.2 IP

Most pitchers in West Virginia spend the entire season at the level. The exception would be the advanced college guys or older players, who usually get moved up after about two months. The Pirates usually have a lot of prep guys at this level, or college guys with a lot of work needed on their secondary stuff.

High-A to Double-A

Jeff Locke – 213.2 IP*

Adrian Sampson – 140 IP

Casey Sadler – 130.1 IP

Jameson Taillon – 125 IP

Nick Kingham – 70 IP

Joely Rodriguez – 67.1 IP

Gerrit Cole – 67 IP

Brandon Cumpton – 66.1 IP

Phil Irwin – 53.1 IP

A lot of pitchers will move up to Altoona after half a season, depending on performance. The big outlier on the list above is Jeff Locke. He also comes with an asterisk, as some of his time in High-A came in another organization. Locke came to the Pirates with control problems, and spent extra time at the level fixing those issues. Adrian Sampson spent 140 innings at the level last year, although he skipped over West Virginia. Normally he’d have about 70 innings in West Virginia and 70 in Bradenton. Casey Sadler started as a reliever in the first half of 2012, then moved to the rotation in the second half. Jameson Taillon struggled the first half of the season, extending his stay at the level.

Generally it seems that players move up once they demonstrate the ability to throw a changeup and command the fastball. They don’t have to master these things, but they’ll need a good start in both areas.

Double-A to Triple-A

Phil Irwin – 191.2 IP

Jeff Locke – 182.2 IP

Brandon Cumpton – 162 IP

Nick Kingham – 144.1 IP

Casey Sadler – 130.1 IP

Jameson Taillon – 127.1 IP

Gerrit Cole – 59 IP

The one exception on the list above is Gerrit Cole. He was moved up after just half a season in Altoona. Cole also was far more advanced than most of the pitchers on this list. He was very polished coming out of college, and had a plus changeup, which is a key area of development at this level. The Pirates focus on the changeup in the lower levels, but this is the level where you usually see big improvements. This is also the level where pitchers start pitching more like they would in the majors, rather than working heavily on one specific pitch. Most of the time, you’ll see guys spend the equivalent of a full season in Double-A. If they get promoted for the start of the season, they will probably finish the season at the level. If they get promoted mid-season, they’ll probably return for the first half of the following season.

Triple-A to the Majors

Gerrit Cole – 74 IP

Brandon Cumpton – 65.1 IP

Casey Sadler – 33 IP

Jeff Locke – 28.1 IP

Phil Irwin – 28 IP

The jump to the majors is largely dependent on when a pitcher is ready. There have also been guys who have made the jump at different times, getting sent down after their initial arrival in the majors. For the purpose of this article, I’m only focusing on starting pitchers in Triple-A (even if they moved to the majors as relievers), and I’m only going to focus on the initial call-up.

Most of the guys above have been up-and-down players. They got their initial call to the majors early, but went back down shortly after. Locke was a September call-up two years in a row before being called up for the long-haul. Of course, he had a horrible second half in 2013, and ended up going back down due to performance issues. Cumpton has been called upon for depth purposes. Same with Sadler and Irwin, with the latter no longer being in the system.

Cole is the key guy here. He was held back for Super Two purposes, although he wasn’t exactly dominant from day one. He struggled the first month of the season, then pitched well in May. Unlike the situation with Gregory Polanco, who dominated the entire season in Triple-A, Cole was only held back for a few weeks due to Super Two, rather than over a month.

Current Pitching Prospects

The Pirates recently promoted Nick Kingham to Triple-A. He has just two starts at the level, and 14 innings. If he gets about 6 innings per start (his average this year), and gets 15 more starts (6 per month, plus two this month and one in September), then he will finish with 94 innings. I could definitely see him being called up in September if he’s pitching well and the Pirates still need pitching. I could even see him called up in August if he pitches the way he has been the last two starts. Super Two wouldn’t be an issue, because he’d already be past that for the 2014 season. The Pirates could just keep him up for good after he arrives in the majors. The key difference between him and a situation like Cole would be that the Pirates would miss out on 1.5-2 months of production during the first season.

The other top pitching prospect who could be in line for a promotion this year is Tyler Glasnow. He’s got 48.2 innings in Bradenton, while he works on his fastball command and changeup. Based on other pitchers, he probably has another month to go before he gets a promotion, assuming he does well in that month. He’s been on fire in his last six starts, but that’s only six starts. Jameson Taillon had six amazing starts to begin his season in High-A in 2012. He followed that up with two months of struggles before figuring things out.

Looking at the other pitchers in our top 20, I don’t see Adrian Sampson moving up until the end of the year. The numbers have been phenomenal in Altoona, but he has 76.2 innings. I could see him possibly going to Indianapolis for the playoffs. Joely Rodriguez seems less likely to move up this year, as his strikeouts haven’t been there in Altoona. He has 70.1 innings, and might be a candidate to return to Altoona for the start of the 2015 season.

The only other pitching prospects in the top 20 (minus rookie league guys) are Luis Heredia and Buddy Borden. Heredia will remain in West Virginia all season, and possibly move up to Bradenton next year. Borden could move up before the end of the season, since he’s a college guy. However, he seems like one of the college guys who could benefit from an entire year in low-A.

Links and Notes

**Prospect Watch: Josh Bell Having a Monster Month, Jordan Luplow Hits First Homer

**Stetson Allie Placed on the DL; Altoona Suspensions Announced

**Jason Grilli Removed From Closer Role

**Minor Moves: Jake Brigham Returns, Carlos Paulino on Rehab

**Minor League Schedule: Luis Heredia Headlines Busy Saturday

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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