It has been two months since the last update in the playoff odds series. The Pittsburgh Pirates had a horrible start to the season in the month of April, and by the end of the month, they no longer projected as playoff contenders. After some strong play in May and June, they find themselves two games above .500, 1.5 games out of the Wild Card spot, and once again getting good odds to make the post-season.
Each week we will break down the playoff odds and projections from the top three projection sites: Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and ClayDavenport.com. Now that we have half a season in the books, the results will be a bit stronger, based more on what the team has done and is doing this year, and less on pre-season projections.
Baseball Prospectus: 81.9 wins, 80.1 losses, 9.1% chance to make playoffs
The Baseball Prospectus odds had the Pirates with a 9.1% chance to make the playoffs at the end of April, with a projected 77-85 record. The Pirates have basically swung their projected record by five wins, although that is only leading to about a ten percent increase to their odds. Right now BP has the Giants and Cardinals taking the two Wild Card spots, with two more teams ahead of the Pirates.
FanGraphs: 82.7 wins, 79.3 losses, 28.6% chance to make playoffs
FanGraphs is similar to BP in that the Pirates are seeing almost five more wins in the latest projections, and have more than doubled their odds of making the playoffs. During the last update they had a 13.7% chance of making the post-season.
Clay Davenport: 83.7 wins, 78.3 losses, 32.0% chance to make playoffs
The projections from Clay Davenport continues the trend of the first two projections. The Pirates have seen an increase in five projected wins since the last update. They have also seen their winning percentage almost double, up from 15.7% last time.
The Competition
Here are the rankings of the NL contenders. To get “contender” status, a team must have a 15% or better to make the playoffs in all three projection systems.
| Team | Odds | W | L | |
|
1 |
Dodgers |
85.1 |
90 |
72 |
|
2 |
Brewers |
80.9 |
90 |
72 |
|
3 |
Nationals |
76.4 |
88 |
74 |
|
4 |
Giants |
70.1 |
88 |
74 |
|
5 |
Cardinals |
57.1 |
87 |
75 |
|
6 |
Braves |
55.1 |
85 |
77 |
|
7 |
Reds |
42.0 |
85 |
77 |
|
8 |
Pirates |
26.9 |
83 |
79 |
The Pirates are back in the mix, although they’re the last team on this list. They need to jump past the Cardinals, Braves, and Reds in the projections to win the second Wild Card. Looking at the current standings, that doesn’t seem hard to do, since the Pirates are currently 1.5 games back. However, the projections have the other teams doing better for the remainder of the season.
One consolation here is that the projections aren’t final. The Pirates improved their projections by five wins in the last two months. Another five wins would not only put them in position for a Wild Card spot, but it would put them in the hunt for the first Wild Card spot. It looks like it will take 87-88 wins to reach the post-season. The Pirates would have to win at a .575 rate the remainder of the year. They’ve been winning at a .571 rate in May and June, with the results in June being higher. Making the post-season isn’t out of the question, but the Pirates will have to continue their success from the last two months.
